Yeah Mark, So Scared I've already made $25,000 shorting This Pig including the fees I had to pay out to short it.
Everytime you pump, I'll be short with another 20K and I'm just one small player. Not good for the manipulators like yourself. I understand the game being played here and the stock has acted predictably. The main buyers now are those covering short positions. Any time short positions decrease, we'll pile on endlessly.
There have been a few positive developments in the company recently and although I feel it may still go down, I don't see HART as the most favorable risk/reward opportunity going short at the 8.XX level anymore.
Good luck on your long positions. I honestly hope this company has success, but this move was too much too soon so I had to take the short side.
Uh Oh, here come the emotional appeals. I think this is one of the 5 stages of investor grief before finally coming to acceptance that they bought a pumped stock at significantly over fair value.
I just am concerned when I see people posting these kind of things. It doesn't hurt to share the information with other prospective investors. The concerns is that a few people may see your post and think it's a desperate seller trying to pump the stock any way he/she can.
They go to exhibitions and meet with potential customers all the time. They advertise and promote at events like this 20-25 times a year.
Of the 20 of so small cap Chinese stocks that I watch, EFUT has performed better than all of them except HPJ over the last 1 and 3 months.
It seems the market is in a bit of a correction. The thing to watch for is when financial stocks start under-performing the tech-stocks. If that happens, the stock market could take a serious dive as leverage, public and private debt demand is what keeps asset prices up.
Recently, EFuture has fallen along with other tech stocks, but has held up better than the majority of small-cap Chinese Stocks.
That being said, I'm on the sidelines for now. I'll wait to see how far down it can be pushed while monitoring developments in the company and broader industry.
Market is getting crushed. Anything and everything is getting crushed, even stocks of quality.
The market isn't always rational while EFuture hasn't proved beyond a reasonable doubt that the MyStore concept will be an indomitable revenue accelerator. If the overall market continues to tank, which it could, EFuture will likely have continued pressure exerted on it as long as there are no new positive developments reported.
If the market holds up, I don't see further pressure being exerted on the stock price.
Have some basic human decency.
You set up an account simply to harrass an anonymous poster online. Go ahead. I won't block you. Low float stocks like this that go down on light volume after repeatedly painting the tape on back to back to back to back closes which subsequently attract basher's with weak investment theses saying a stock at 0.55 P/S with real, competitive products and an exponentially growing new APP plus strong customer loyalty should go down 80% from current levels speaks for itself. Your senseless attempts to scare people here won't work.
Take a large short position to try and scare me. I have a long, long investment horizon.
I think everybody at this board can attest that I was buying in the 2's and the 3's so I'm up considerably right now on my position.
Meanwhile, my SHORT portfolio is up 90% in only a month as I've taken multiple short positions in a few awful, promoted stocks. I sent one short idea to this board which subsequently dropped 30% in short time.
You can continue to try and tarnish my reputation for whatever that's worth to you. I won't be responding to any more of your posts.
1. You can't look at a low-cap, illiquid stock like E-Future and say it should perfectly correlate with market returns on any given day. Relative strength indicators move up and down and never constant. You can't make future assumptions based on any single day's relative strength. Do you really mean to make this point? Extrapolate further.
2. You say that only the upfront fee is material, but you do realize that they planned to start monetizing MyStore with product placement ads this month, right? It's not only likely, it's a sure thing. You can argue that they won't generate much revenue this way, but you can't say that generating revenue through ad placements are unlikely. It's already in process.
3. The last stage is something I don't fully understand myself. I just took it from the mouth of the CEO in a recent interview. So far he has partially vindicated himself as 3 of the top 100 retailers in China have already started trials with MyStore while it is still in its infancy. Many, many smaller retailers are also using MyStore, but EFuture hasn't disclosed the names or issued individual Press Releases when signing contracts with small retail chains.
4. No, I did not talk with customer service. Not only are the majority of users active, Rainbow announced that MyStore users contributed to an increase in order purchase volume per customer by 40%. That seems significant and data provided by Rainbow, not EFuture.
Again, I can only qualify these comments based on the source of the information. One must always consider the source when evaluating information received therefrom.
I will enter when I'm ready to enter. I'm very patient and feel that E-Future has no immediate catalyst which could prevent it from going lower in the near-term.
Your idea that having 43 of the top 100 retailers is built in to the price is a bit ridiculous. This is an illiquid stock and quite thinly traded. Institutions don't follow the stock. Retail traders ignore it, except for a few people on this board. EFUT buzz is non-existent since the early days where in ran on pure speculation.
If you have been paying attention to the market movements over the last 15 years and still believe in efficient market theory, that everything must be perfectly priced because the price is always right, you haven't been paying attention.
EFuture has steadily moved up on higher volume and it goes down on low volume during patches of market softness. There has hardly been a high volume day where this stock was down. High volume almost always equates to a higher stock price with EFUT. More often than not, this is a sign that the stock (all the players effecting price action) is signalling it wants to go higher.
Investors still have to be patient and monitor future developments. EFUT is certainly not a risk free equity. Yet when you take all the positive developments and add them to a most likely undervalued main line of business there seems to be much more potential reward than risk here.
I don't think the stock is down because investors are panning the stock. It's likely that people just aren't paying attention. As interest builds, the stock could appreciate rapidly.
Would feel very insecure being short this stock over the long term myself. But each trade needs a counter-party so go ahead and take the other side.
Why do I have the feeling that you know better?
You seem to be aware of the 8 rmb discount, which is what Yonghui was offering it's customers to sign up. And you started using this name only today to comment on E-Future. Of course you have your motivations which are you unique to you, but I gather you actually want to pick up shares on the shakedown rather than honestly believe what you are writing.
Yes, I contacted the company and asked for clarification regarding the user numbers, most of the 500,000 users are active users, at least according to the company.
The strange thing is that you seem to understand the company a bit, but you fail to understand some crucial elements to the company story.
Have you used MyStore? Your post seems to claim you use it. Do you realize that on Yonghui stock forums, there are threads discussing the usage of the app, its benefits and its weaknesses. The weaknesses can be improved upon as the APP rolls out further. I understand how the App works and understand customers main concerns regarding how the App works. Can you give further clarification as to why you believe the app is uncomfortable?
You do realize that most Chinese consumers would be using the app coming home from work or school, and they would have their phone handy. You also realize that lines in supermarkets during peak times can get very long? You say it's uncomfortable to use, but compared to what? Sure using a desktop is more productive and efficient, but guess what, the world is using smartphones despite that.
Yes, it is quite complementary to the omni-channel solution, and that's a good thing. To say retailers only want the App because of the Omni-Channel Solution doesn't seem right. The company, if I"m not mistaken, allows each retailer to customize their selection of offerings. They don't force a retailer to take the multiple offerings.
Those 43 retailers are E-Future Customers. If they didn't need E-Future's services, they wouldn't be E-Future's customers, right?
Nowadays everybody can make an app. OK. Go ahead and do it. Most people can make a basic inventory management system using excel or MySql , it doesn't mean that it is the preferred way to manage a store's inventory. Usually people choose professional solutions with more options and more robust capabilities.
You are wrong about revenue model.
Other more recent estimates show that DATE may have as little as 1-2 million active users, so investors could be paying as much as $100.00-$200.00 per active user in a company which has serious competition from MOMO which has over 100 million active users now. DATE is shrinking according to similarweb statistics, unless you have evidence to prove otherwise.
If EFUT was valued like DATE with an estimate 400-500K ACTIVE users at the moment, MyStore would be worth 40-50M. It's a guessing game. My main point is that you chose a pretty terrible comparison with DATE which doesn't hold up to any honest scrutiny.
I'm always looking for counter-evidence against my investment thesis, so have at it!
Nobody claims to be an "Expert" in this forum. I do my best to keep up-to-date with industry developments and stock specific news updates, but it is hard to be an expert in a company like E-Future unless you have used all their products and services and competing products and services.
One thing we know is that E-Future works with 43 of the top 100 retailers in China. They have deep, personal relationships with retail management in these companies fostered over more than a decade. When a company uses the E-Future platform, their staff is trained on location and significant upfront costs are bore by the retailer. E-Future has a large moat and has not lost their customer base. On the contrary, they have expanded their business relationships from 35 to 43 of the top 100 retailers in China. Do you really think the current market cap fairly values their main line of business fairly - with or without MyStore?
Beyond that, you are playing games with numbers I assume you know are bogus. DATE, or JiaYuan claims to have 100 million users - sure, you are right about that. According to their own rosy numbers however, only 5 million are active users, which rather gives them a value of $40.00 per active user. Do you have any counter-evidence to deny that this is true? I found this data from the company's own annual report.
Weibo and WeChat have per user valuations of $20 for Weibo and some have valued WeChat as high $200.00 per user. Those are Chinese comparisons. In the USA, even after the recent correction, values per user still hover around $50-$150 depending on the type of service.
$1.00 is not reasonable. I'd say $1000.00 would be just as unreasonable. Although the value per active user is hard to assess, I would say $20.00 would be the very low end while the high end could be around $100.00. When it comes to value discovery, it's very difficult to guess, and I"m certain not smart enough to make a narrow estimate.
Your assumptions are unreasonable.
You won't understand the price movements unless you realize that Short Fees have been crazy high on many of these plays lately as Short Shares are hard to find, and when they are found, your broker pays seriously high prices for the right to borrow them and then passes that cost on to you via Short Interest Fees or sometimes termed Short Rebate Fees.
Long term, this is quite bearish, as it would imply that most of these price increases are simply Short Sellers covering their positions. They would do this at the end of the day to avoid the overnight Short Fees, and this is exactly how HART trades, so I assume the late day buying are Shorts protecting their profit without getting pummeled by 3 days of weekend Short Rebate Fees.
You can get unprecedented analysis of fundamental factors behind the movement of this stock on twitter as the Super_Trades followers leave their footprints everywhere. On Friday afternoon, they were cheerleading the price movements, which means they weren't likely buying more, just simply back-patting themselves for the movement, which unbeknownst to them, was likely the apparition created from their own hype.
I wouldn't be surprised to see this rise near $9.00 next week before resuming its downward course.
This was supposed to be a response post to izanami14 who said this was a Chinese Scam. I don't think it is a Scam, but rather a company in need of a better business model.
Most of the remaining US Listed Chinese Companies won't be victimizing their investors with overnight surprises like accounting scandals, theft of investor capital, or simply disappearing without filing SEC statements. The frauds have largely been cleaned up. There may be a few remaining, but the risk is overdone and that play has long passed by.
Muddy Waters tried to tarnish EDU's reputation at the end of the US-Listed Chinese Fraud madness, but my sources in China said EDU was absolutely legitimate and a classy organization. They also have lots of good reviews from employees over on fenzhi, which is the Chinese version of GlassDoor.
My point? Professional shorters are trying to jump on these US-Listed Chinese stocks when they see holes in accounting standards, or outright deception and subsequently profit massively by shorting to $0.00. The problem? Finding frauds is becoming much harder when they likely aren't there anymore.
The reason for these massive swings are more likely Chinese Investors have inside information regarding the good earnings, but also realize the next quarter won't be that great in comparison. Chinese investors tend to be very sloppy with their bids and asks and pour 30K to 50K shares into the mix without even hiding their intent. I've seen it in a variety of Chinese stocks that I follow. That was definitely the case on April 3 in JRJC, and those were all on the bid. Those same large blocks were all on the ask April 4 in the early morning.
In a sense this traded rationally, if my theory is right - and I'd say this was the most likely scenario.
The stock may eventually run up much higher, but I think in the short term, the stock will move up or down based on their ability to further leverage their traffic into product offerings without as much inherent intrinsic risks.
That's only my take. Would appreciate a rebuttal.
For the sake of accuracy, JRJC is not a reverse merger company.
Since I can't post links, Google "china-finance-online-co-ltd-649966-41354"
Look at their IPO details. Pretty simple stuff. Don't spread misinformation.
They listed in the US through an initial public offering.
Moreover the company itself owns largely Chinese Assets, but it is a Hong Kong company.
Also, yes, the investment gain shows up in the income statement, but was not incremental to revenue figure of 25M. That being said, the gold trading platform is currently having a hard time holding on to customers, as I've read online from Chinese mainlanders.
At some point the decline may be overdone, but first a lot of bagholders need to escape their pain so the stock should fall further, perhaps even under $3.00 if the market does not hold up.
I made a post that was really bullish after the earnings release, but I realized that the gold trading business is weak after doing some further research (about 5 hours of study online to either verify or rebut my original analysis).
I am sold out and am neither long or short. With the current web properties, cash base, and potential to eventually benefit from a rising stock market (should happen at some point, right) without resorting to gold trading, I think this could be attractive at some point again, especially at a discounted price.
You think it's going back to $4.00? Of course it is possible, but what changed?
I made more than you going long and was wrong! But nice call, anyway!