VIX doesn't matter. Only front-month futures matters this week. After this week, 2nd month futures will start becoming an increasing factor in the price.
Since the forward curve was in backwardation, the VIX was already expected to decline this week and the next. It was already priced into the futures.
This is likely only a temporarily respite. Next year XIV is going down to $5.00-$10.00 I presume. Market are stretched vs. commodities and DOW/total bond return ratios. Those oscillating ratio indicators come back to a norm at some point. Shorts are fearful and keep getting kicked as they increase their short positions in expectations of further breakdowns which aren't coming. This fear of going short now is going to augment the speed at which the market collapses as smart (government insider) money is dictating the price of the market right now.
The goal is to use the stock market returns to increase tax revenues and decrease budget deficits. That's why valuations are near all time highs, yet main street is absent from the market. What we are seeing are central banks from all over the world using the market as a bailout. The purpose is to create tax revenue. Jan-Apr will not be fun as positions are sold to pay cap gains taxes.
The market may recover after April for 1 more year, but it won't last longer than that.
Hi There Mylkvveed,
I enjoyed reading your posts last summer when Super_Trades and his associates were pumping this stock across all available dissemination channels on the internet. You are one of the few investors I've ever seen on these boards with the ability to stay detached from your personal position in the company in order to postulate in clear analytical language that there may be something amiss in the former price spike from $4-$12 in a matter of days.
If you remember, after the original Super_Trades pump, there were 2 subsequent Price Target increases issued by Maxim Group who put a target of $19 dollars on the stock and then immediately rose the price target again to $24 on April 11. The stock rose in premarket trading while paying subscribers in the Super_Trades platform believe that what they were seeing was legitimate analysis and upgrade by an esteemed Wall Street broker/dealer. Although it's hard to come up with verifiable evidence, there was clearly some kind of manipulation going on. In a single week, HART, a diminutive micro-cap biotech, had 4,000,000 shares trade hands. Although not necessarily unprecedented in the world of biotech to have this kind of activity, something at least seemed wrong.
It's been clear to me after watching recent Super_Trades stock picks that move up against all historical norms that they have multiple buyers and pumpers that work together into coordinated manipulation of the stock price. Other successful pumps of his which have subsequently traded in very weird ways include $LIVE, $CARA, and $RCON. At least 2 of those 3 companies are clearly suspicious if not outright frauds trading in direct view; Nasdaq-Listed.
Recent pumps of $AMOT, $WLDN, and $NVEE are also all very strange in that they have created ahistorical price movements which don't seem justified by former or current financials or meaningful news announcements.
Running out of space, so here it is succinctly...
HicksGreg65, trying to pose as some middle aged guy with the name of Greg Hicks. Sorry, I'm Not buying it. Almost certainly a paid basher for a company that has all the incentives to be employing one.
Everybody knows that RENN used shady tactics and Chinese Internet Lies to scam investors out of there money on the IPO. I watched with horror as investors were paying 67x+ annual sales for this piece of junk trying to market itself as the Facebook China.
Now the company wants YOU out. They want the shares back under $3.00 as long as they can keep buying back shares at low rates. Don't let them do that. Hold onto your position. They can only buyback on a downtick according to buyback rules, so somebody needs to be selling to them.
Now RENN wants to buy back shares of the company as they complete their buyback. Everyday that passes is another day that guys like GregHicks will try to bully long-term holders out of there shares only to be retired by cash on the balance sheet. The buyback is alive and well, that's why the stock always tanks in the last 10 minutes of the day... because the company is restricted from buying back shares during the last 10 minutes of the day. When the disappear, the market becomes immediately less liquid and somebody comes in to knock it down when the trades thin out on the last minute or two. The consistency with which this happens is too much to be due to natural, chaotic forces.
The other thing is I live in Asia. Yet what about this guy? He's posting 24 hours a day and responding to my posts within minutes at 3AM EST. Now he's posting at 1PM EST. Does he sleep? Or must he constantly want the world to know his opinion on RENN? Or perhaps this is a 24 hour customer service gig for the company?
This guy has ulterior motives. It's clear. A few posters like this have been caught recently in share price manipulation.
Put the hurt on by buying and walking away until 2 years from now. Don't let them steal from you.
Had to be nimble and leave KNDI. Made some money on it, but it's relative strength set-up for today has failed and I discovered recent controversy surrounding the illegal pumping of the stock by a "mysterious network of social-media touters" as reported in an article on sharesleuth that I just read.
May still be a good play as the company seems legit, but it appears they have temporarily worked with pumpers in order to get better prices for large stock offerings.
These kind of games will hurt them more than help them over the long term.
I always try to stay active in my research, so I've updated everybody on the board so that you can before fully aware before placing a trade.
Not as good as I first thought.
Relative strength doesn't really matter, except when nobody else sees it. Then it does. This was a classic example of needing to correlate the stock's performance to the market in general and realize that what can look like weakness can actually be strength if you have the ability to see it.
Surprised people thumbed down my post, KNDI is up 4.5% early after getting mauled the last few days.
KNDI did not break through the intra-day low despite the VIX, SPY, and NASD hitting its lows at the end of the day. On a highly retail-margined stock like KNDI, that should tell you something.
I'm not often wrong. And I doubt I will be this time. I could care less whether you believe me or not. I only care that I will be counting my profits at some point before Friday.
So far I've given out about 3-4 trade ideas on this board that have all turned out to be immediately profitable picks. Outside of this board, nobody knows who I am or cares - although they probably should - considering my daytrading account is up 300%+ this year after climbing 80%+ last year. Since the majority of my positions are buy and hold, my total account value this year is up 78%. Unfortunately I'll lose a chunk of that when it comes to paying short-term capital gains.
Those on this board probably realize I'm not lying.
Regardless, I'm noticing KNDI breaking down right now and although it's a slightly suspicious company, it's not an outright fraud. Legitimacy issues don't plague it, or at least they shouldn't.
KNDI was about to recover yesterday around 11AM, but didn't because of the Volatility spike. Since KNDI is held heavily by retail, which are a nervous and finicky bunch, they started to doubt themselves yesterday as the market started slipping while the market became much more nervous as evidenced by the VIX. However, while the broader market ended the day at lows, KNDI was able to stay above its low of the day showing relative strength that is often perceived as weakness by technical analysts looking at the chart. In stark contrast to the typical, yet incorrect, takeaway of looking at a chart like KNDI, the technical situation is very strong if correlated with the broader market.
KNDI is a good buy here. It should start to slowly outperform the market, but will still be sensitive to massive VIX spikes. Regardless, it's a great entry point here for a 1-3 month hold or longer intervals of time.
Greg. Even you know you are wrong now. You are abusing the influence you think you've built-up by making correct calls on the direction of RENN over the last few years.
You are going to be wrong in a big way. RENN will settle around $3.60-$4.00 when the dust settles. I'm picking up 100,000 shares. Watch and learn.
Snowball Finance is gaining huge momentum in China. Personally, as a consumer of financial information in China, I can authoritatively state that Snowball Finance has the best user experience of any other Chinese Financial News site. As an additional benefit, the website has been set up to be social and engaging unlike any other similar site in China.
Snowball will eventually be a 500m-1b dollar company. I assume RENREN has about 30-40% control over Snowball, but we don't know yet. If so, I expect that 40m investment to soon be worth 170-350m. I suspect that investment has already doubled its value in the few months since the cash injection.
Floor value of RENREN should be about $3.05. I'm buying 100,000 shares.
Investments in FundRise, Snowball Finance, and others are almost as good as cash. Their 40m injection into Xueqiu (snowball), is almost certainly growing in value daily. Long-term investments seem undervalued on the balance sheet and although not as liquid as cash in the bank need to be included as easily divestible assets that add to the cash value handsomely.
Will be adding more tomorrow.
Yeah, I read that last week on a news website. It is a positive article and shows Yonghui is still expecting MyStore to be their primary mobile internet channel.
There will be a significant jump in the amount of users when Yonghui goes from 13 to over 400 stores. HOWEVER, I don't think the company is currently counting Yonghui customers in the 1.3 million user figure. That's what IR told me.
What do you mean?
I'm realistic. I don't want to be a mindless cheerleader. Clearly Mystore is not immediately ready to generate revenue. On the other hand, It doesn't matter.
MyStore will either be a game-changer or a waste of money. It either creates 100million-10billion in value, or it gets eventually shelved. It either reaches the necessary tipping point to attract advertisers or it doesn't. With MyStore back to adding 100,000 users per month, or which I estimate only about 1/3 stay active and regularly use it, that's not enough to make a major impact yet.
E-Future can succeed with or without MyStore and the company still has explosive growth potential. Consider that the backlog has no MyStore revenues included and is still growing quickly.
1. I would value MyStore at about 5-10 million at the moment. Right now it has almost no value, but the possibility of it becoming a 100+ million dollar app exists should they get 5m+ users and attract advertisers.
2. I would value Omni-Channel at around 15-20 million. That's a shot in the dark based on the increase in backlog that seems to be attributable to the new service.
3. The legacy software solutions at around 25 million. Valuing it at 1x Sales.
4. Cash Position is somewhere between 5m and 10m based on seasonality.
I feel all these valuations are conservative. To me the minimum value is about 50m. Based on extremely pessimistic estimates, the company should be worth around $12.50.
This is not the case at all. MyStore may not be profitable for a long time.
Right now they only have 1.3 million users as stated in a recent interview with Adam. He also stated a goal of a billion users within 10 years; subsequently stating that he was ridiculed by a few in China for these goals, but dared to dream and set the bar that high anyway.
E-Future will continue to promote MyStore. invest in MyStore upgrades and continue in-store set-ups and training which will cost money out of pocket for the time being. I would imagine they won't begin to sell advertising for 1-2 more years as they will likely need 3-5m users spread out across the country. This will provide potential brand-owners/retailers/marketers an opportunity to target specific consumers directly and powerfully based on the recommendations and patterns provided by big data as well as reaching as seamlessly targeting localities vs. a less precise universal approach.
At the current 1.3 million downloads, of which I estimate only about 33% are active users based on recent Yonghui data, I highly doubt they are ready to use MyStore to advertise. It will probably take about 1-2 more years before MyStore generates any meaningful revenue.
Right now the more powerful immediate driver of revenues is the Omni-Channel solution, which likely has a significantly higher value than the company is currently priced at.