What do you mean?
I'm realistic. I don't want to be a mindless cheerleader. Clearly Mystore is not immediately ready to generate revenue. On the other hand, It doesn't matter.
MyStore will either be a game-changer or a waste of money. It either creates 100million-10billion in value, or it gets eventually shelved. It either reaches the necessary tipping point to attract advertisers or it doesn't. With MyStore back to adding 100,000 users per month, or which I estimate only about 1/3 stay active and regularly use it, that's not enough to make a major impact yet.
E-Future can succeed with or without MyStore and the company still has explosive growth potential. Consider that the backlog has no MyStore revenues included and is still growing quickly.
1. I would value MyStore at about 5-10 million at the moment. Right now it has almost no value, but the possibility of it becoming a 100+ million dollar app exists should they get 5m+ users and attract advertisers.
2. I would value Omni-Channel at around 15-20 million. That's a shot in the dark based on the increase in backlog that seems to be attributable to the new service.
3. The legacy software solutions at around 25 million. Valuing it at 1x Sales.
4. Cash Position is somewhere between 5m and 10m based on seasonality.
I feel all these valuations are conservative. To me the minimum value is about 50m. Based on extremely pessimistic estimates, the company should be worth around $12.50.
This is not the case at all. MyStore may not be profitable for a long time.
Right now they only have 1.3 million users as stated in a recent interview with Adam. He also stated a goal of a billion users within 10 years; subsequently stating that he was ridiculed by a few in China for these goals, but dared to dream and set the bar that high anyway.
E-Future will continue to promote MyStore. invest in MyStore upgrades and continue in-store set-ups and training which will cost money out of pocket for the time being. I would imagine they won't begin to sell advertising for 1-2 more years as they will likely need 3-5m users spread out across the country. This will provide potential brand-owners/retailers/marketers an opportunity to target specific consumers directly and powerfully based on the recommendations and patterns provided by big data as well as reaching as seamlessly targeting localities vs. a less precise universal approach.
At the current 1.3 million downloads, of which I estimate only about 33% are active users based on recent Yonghui data, I highly doubt they are ready to use MyStore to advertise. It will probably take about 1-2 more years before MyStore generates any meaningful revenue.
Right now the more powerful immediate driver of revenues is the Omni-Channel solution, which likely has a significantly higher value than the company is currently priced at.
You shouldn't be investing. It's Market Capitilzation, not Capital Market.
It isn't my intention to be rude, but if you don't know that much, you'd be better off picking your stocks by playing pin the tail on the newspaper stock column.
PS. They company has stated they won't issue a PR for every new MyStore Customer unless it is a very big one like Yonghui. Cosmo Lady must have fallen just under their threshold.
Got this info from their MyStore website under "Recent News" section. Again, E-Future is going to need a lot or retailers to make the platform effective - the more retailers, the more complete of a service it is to consumers. The more consumers, the more retailers will want to be on the platform. The more retailers and consumers on the platform, the more advertisers will be interested in connecting with targeted consumer groups.
MyStore still has a ways to go before it is effective. The Omni-Channel solution looks promising. I'm not sure what attributed to the massive 29% increase in backlog from 2nd to 3rd quarter. I don't think MyStore is the reason. I'd suspect it's software and Omni-Channel contracts bundled with MyStore as one of the many channels the Omni-Channel will help retailers connect to centrally and efficiently.
My point was that when it had that prior revenue level, it was uninvestible. Regardless, I'm sure you are enjoying your profits there and don't care about what I have to say about it.
If you don't feel confident in EFUT, then you made the right decision to trim your position. I probably bought your shares.
You couldn't have invested in it back in 2011. Regardless, EFuture is a different company which clearly has 500% potential return.
I held JRJC and KNDI which performed very well too. I actually got into JRJC at $1.10. I sold over $7.00. Then of course I turned around and shorted the crap out of it.
Regardless, each stock runs on its own time. E-Future's day is likely coming.
I know I implied; well pretty much directly said; that Kay's comment was so ignorant that my forehead fell to the table as my neck gave up trying from the weight of the brain falling out, but I can understand his frustrations, too.
How many times have we been promised revenue growth and margin increases. However, the company is at a new level it has never been at before. The company, nor did we, as investors understand just to what extent e-tailing would stifle the physical shop. However, despite this negative environment, the company has been able to turn things around while re-investing revenue from their legacy software businesses into mobile and without much, if any, further dilution suffered as a result.
The company had plenty of opportunities to fudge their numbers when all the other companies in China were doing it and pretty much getting away with it, but E-Future clearly wasn't. They were posting losses while the Scams were all posting 30% annual net income growth and predictably wide profit margins.
Due to having no reason now to doubt E-Future's financials, I don't see any reason not to trust the backlog numbers. After all, These aren't pipeline numbers, these are backlog numbers.
Not sure if the market just doesn't believe them or not, or if, merely, nothing Small and Chinese is given a fair shot at the moment.
Somebody just sold to me at $4.00 in the after-market. Who knows what happens tomorrow with the lack of liquidity here, but I think I got the best of that deal!
Yeah, but that is the 4th quarter. It's always in that range.
The good news is how they've laid the foundation for the future, increased margins after a long period where they were taking software profits and reinvesting them into mobile solutions, and now have a backlog largely from the new mobile segment of 36m.
Stock should be worth at least 2x revenues, imo. But the market may take some time to figure that out.
Without a doubt, the most promising earnings report I have read to date.
- Cash position is up substantially as projects moved towards completion and milestone payments were made. Likely to be well over $10m by the end of the year.
- Backlog increased 24.1% over last quarter and 49% from last year to 36m in what will likely show up as future revenue
- Significantly improved gross margin and a much leaner business model going into 2015 which a massive backlog (relative to market cap) ready to recognize.
- Company is the real deal when it comes to small-caps in China. No informed investor can question the legitimacy of the company and be taken seriously. Real company, real demand, real partners - but still priced at the "Chinese Listed- potential fraud" levels of 2011. Something will give sooner or later.
There is no issue here. I know it is hard to do the research. Nobody spells it out for you. Investing requires that you do your own DD, which sometimes means many hours reading rather dense technical material.
However, if you can't do it, or have access to somebody who can do it for you, it's better to stay out of the market or just buy solid blue chips and hold them long term.
Cosmo Lady, an online and offline retailer selling women's undergarments (think Victoria's Secret, but more casual wear) is partnering with E-Future as they try to develop an O2O strategy to take advantage of their retail space which they plan to subsidize with online sales via E-Future's O2O solutions - which include mystore. I would imagine they are also going to be using their omni-channel solution to manage and maximize their online presence.
The capitalization of Cosmo Lady is 1.25 billion dollar company. It trades on the HK Stock Exchange after IPO'ing earlier this year. They have centered their O2O push around E-Future's solutions.
Seems like a positive development. Time will tell.
I'd like to make a correction:
Historical data shows that highly shorted stocks typically perform slightly worse than stocks without LOW* short interest.
I admire the fact that you can admit you are a novice while asking intelligent questions which will allow you to understand the fundamentals. I imagine you'll be able to navigate the markets independently in no time if you keep asking questions.
If you look at the updated SHORT INTEREST data from the official NASDAQ website, you'll see that SHORT INTEREST has climbed to about 5 million shares. Keep in mind, however, that it is the NOVEMBER 12 today but the update which came out last night only calculates SHORT INTEREST as of October 31. Brokers have flexibility in their filing times so the data isn't gathered until 2 business days after the end of the month. The data is finally reported to the public via FINRA on the 7th business day after the end of month.
It is important to add that these are bi-monthly updates, which means the short interest gets updated twice per month. Once during mid-month and once on the last day of the month - irregardless of how many days are in the month. But you can not see that data, nor can I or anybody else, until 7 business days after each bi-monthly reporting period.
To check short interest for a stock, just search Google for "SHORT INTEREST" + the stock you wish to look up. You'll be able to see the total shares being shorted after each reporting period over recent history.
Please note that high short interest doesn't always indicate that a stock will rise of fall. Historical data shows that highly shorted stocks typically perform slightly worse than stocks without high short interest.. But each stock acts individually and must be assessed individually. In the past, most short sellers have been "smart money", so the historical data is biased. These days, there are a lot of "retail shorts" who trade without experience and expertise, so it may very well be that highly shorted stocks may begin to outperform.
The rules of the game are always changing. Stay flexible and curious and you'll do great!
It's not only the promise of shortening the duration of HCV treatment and thereby lowering the cost of the treatment significantly that has created the massive pricing readjustment in RGLS' share price.
It's the incredible potential that RNAi and miRNA targeting therapeutics are beginning to demonstrate. As the company states, they believe that targeting miRNA and disrupting the pathways that perpetuate disease could be useful in myriad of potential applications. This is a whole 'nother potential vector in which disease could be treated. It's potentially hyper-disruptive to big pharma, and if they want in, they will have to pay up.
RG101 alone, if it can shorten HCV treatment to 4-8 weeks, would be worth at least 4 billion. RGLS' leading position in this modality of treatment gives it potential to be worth much more than that over time.
Valuing a company like this is difficult, because potential side effects MAY present themselves in future trials. I'm not an expert myself, but I doubt even the experts can be sure how to assess the risk of potential long-term side effects in such a novel form of treatment. For that reason, the company has to trade at a significant discount to the potential. My guess is that $30.00, or a market cap of just under 1.5 billion seems about right. However that's just a wild approximation.
One thing that I do know is that unless you have some technical scientific information that nobody else is privy to, DO NOT SHORT THIS COMPANY. It could seriously destroy you financially.