You can't just compare one company to another like that. Each company has company specific strengths and weaknesses, different personalities, different capabilities to foresee future trends etc.
GOMO is 7.5x P/S. E-Future is 0.6 P/S. So E-Future would go much higher than $20.00 if it were to play catchup with GOMO. Can you clarify the relationship between these two stocks because I'm completely missing it.
$400.00 a share? 2 billion+ dollar valuation? Maybe in 10 years if they plan, execute, and innovate to perfection.
If E-Future can prove the current business model is a profitable one servicing 42 of the top 100 Chinese retailers while demonstrating MyStore can generate profitable revenues over a period of time, $20.00 might be in the cards. Without any further updates to add to my current perspective on E-Future, I'd have to be a partial seller at that level. $400.00 is a pipe dream.
Don't know what is influencing the price at the moment...
A few positive factors include...
1. Adam's Book continuing to sell fairly well in China averaging an Amazon Sales Rank in China of about 20,000. Pretty impressive for a niche book about retail strategy and the future of mobile retail. Establishing himself as a thought-leader in China can only be positive over the long-term for the company.
2. Shanghai's first Micro-Store being opened by an Appliance Company and receiving many positive mentions in the Chinese Media.
3. A few more Micro-Stores being opened around the country by smaller, regional retailers. I don't spam these boards every time I find out about a new one because I don't think any single new Micro-Store launch by a smaller regional players makes a significant difference. Compounded, however, these launches may be meaningful. The more small regional players they can add to their platform, the more pressure that larger retailers will have to offer competing offers on the platform by including themselves in the MyStore channel.
Online Economy O2O into Google.
You'll get a good idea of E-Future's strategy if you read about the O2O trends in English.
Orient Granary Co., Ltd. offers food processing and sales; rice cultivation; and food import and export trade. The company is based in Harbin, China. Orient Granary Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Orient Group Incorporation.
Looks like E-Future is implementing an Omni-Channel strategy to market and sell their Organic Rice Product Line to help them better take advantage of their large rice plantations and industrial capacity, but am not completely sure.
Lastly, it is imperative that E-Future comes up with an emergency plan should MyStore fail in its ability to drive revenues and expand the customer base.
If MyStore is causing the company to bleed, at some point it should be jettisoned so the company can refocus on high margin license revenue while removing the deadwood to make this a smaller, but more focused and more easily profitable company.
Personally, I have witnessed a few Chinese Companies where it certainly looks like Chinese Investors are manipulating the share price to their advantage.
After seeing a flurry of trades collecting from the weak hands on Monday afternoon, I thought this looked like it had been manipulated down in anticipation of weak quarterly earnings. Since the selling has continued and today's volume has been relatively high, the trading happening over the last 24 hours doesn't fit into my theory because the stock would have stabilized and moved up after the weak quarterly earnings if I had been exactly right in my analysis.
My guess, and this is only a guess, is that today's trading is either a seller on margin being forced out, or a weary investor who doesn't want to wait another year for E-Future to prove themselves after years of not exactly torrid growth.
MyStore needs to grow their base faster than they did in April. To me the 640,000 number was less than I anticipated, even taking into consideration that it's still likely nearer to 1,000,000 because the disclosed number doesn't take into account private MyStore platforms like with Yonghui.
Many of you won't be surprised that I still think the risk/reward is very attractive here - yet the stock has no reason to do anything spectacular until E-Future can deliver better results and prove MyStore can increase E-Future's top and bottom line over the long-term.
One thing that has concerned me is how Adam seems to revel in the attention he gets, as limited as it is. He should be focusing beyond himself and be the invisible one in the background working overtime to direct and inspire results. To be a big player on the global stage, the Chinese need to get over the idea of saving face or looking good and just do what is right for the business and their investors.
Says the guy who was illegally spreading rumors on multiple message boards such as this one when he claimed Camelot Information Systems' and E-Future's CEO's were buddies and that a buyout was coming at $18.00.
Do you understand that we aren't going to sell shares to you... like ever. And we weren't buying on your faux hype either a few years ago. This is a very independent board with extremely independent investors. You on the other hand can be prosecuted for your posts, so be careful.
Who knowingly knows the known unknowns until the unknowns become knowable and we can knowingly make knowledgeable decisions. (full disclosure: Trying to persuade Donald Rumsfeld to commit some of his capital here.) And there are still many unknowns about how MyStore and E-Future can capitalize their assets in highly dynamic Chinese retail environment.
However, one thing seems pretty clear, the stock - like many other US-Listed Chinese Companies - has its share price being manipulated by Chinese investors overseas that have more complete knowledge, and perhaps intimate financial details, about the companies they are buying and selling. They are using these stocks as a trading vehicle while nervousness abounds and the veil of opacity continues to cloud the vision of US Retail investors. You can detect them pretty easily because they don't hide their limit orders well at all. They aren't fomenting either by trying to lift or suppress the price by placing deceptive buy/sell orders which disappear as soon as a counter-party attempts to exchange their shares with them. They will allow you to buy or sell a large chunk to them, and if they don't get their price they will shortly thereafter run the price up or down depending on what they likely know in advance will be the next short-term reaction to upcoming news o numbers by the company. That's why so many of these stocks trade completely counter-intuitively. A few Information Advantaged Chinese Investors appear to be taking advantage of Americans Myopia by selling to them after good news and cleaning up the asks during bad news.
The reason they trade stupidly is they likely have little access to dark pools and probably don't understand the mechanics of entering and exiting a position intelligently. It doesn't really effect them because if the next batch of numbers will be bullish and they have foreknowledge they know somebody will be there to offload on after the good news or sell to them on bad news.
I called the company and got some additional information.
The targeted brand campaigns are simply trial runs being offered for free as a service to select MyStore partners. They are intended to test the effectiveness and the methodology behind the algorithms designed to target the right consumer for the right product on the MyStore platform while increasing loyalty with the partners and demonstrating functionality.
MyStore does not plan to earn advertising revenue until fiscal year 2015.
Lastly, the reason this stock is down has nothing to do with the company's operations. It has everything to do with the fact that the VIE structure is back under the microscope with the ALIBABA and WEIBO IPOs. Also LIWA being accused of accounting fraud and subsequently having their upper management step down immediately after the accusation hasn't helped boost appetites for US-Listed Small-Cap China Equities.
E-Future will be releasing their earnings near the end of the month. Apparently their accounting team is straining to keep up with the workload. We'll see.
I've been following Adam on Weibo and his main blog for a few years now. His posts attract attention, but he never gets a lot of replies from his followers, so I was convinced that he wasn't as big a player as he seemed to think he is.
However, I've been positive surprised by how his new book appears to be selling by judging from the sales rank on Amazon China. If you enter the product code B00KCCM0XQ into Amazon China, you can scroll down and see the rankings by category. Right now his book is the 7,000th bestseller in China, the 10th best in consumer research subcategory, and the 23rd bestseller in Sales. Fairly impressive for an esoteric book regarding one man's opinion on the future of retailing. His ideas are certainly taking root throughout the retailing industry in China and people are starting to trust him as a thought leader in the industry. There is no way his book would be this popular otherwise.
Also, E-Future has a few international patents associated with the MyStore platform that I discovered. The patent information is highly technical and I can barely put it together, which is probably a good thing!
Other than that, I don't see too much to update other than it appears MyStore is starting to promote specific branded products on their MyStore platform which may or may not have to do with initial forays into paid advertising. The branded marketing promotions for specific items are taking place and that isn't in doubt, but I'm not sure if E-Future is doing this as a complimentary gesture or not.
The cash is not the right reason to invest. First Quarter the cash always goes down dramatically, so the real cash on hand is probably about 30% of the valuation.
Revenue growth over the next 2-3 years is a given. There will clearly be revenue growth, but it will need to keep up and surpass their expenses. Chinese tech worker salaries are likely to keep increasing, so E-Future will have additional overhead. So far, They've made impressive steps forward while keeping up with the rapid increase in salaries over the last few years while developing new innovative products which have the potential to be handsomely accretive over the medium-term.
MyStore just expanded its presence and user base in the most NorthWest corner of China in the Northern Shadow of the Tibetan Plateau. That's about as far from Beijing as imaginable. XinJiang Hui Jia Department Stores is expanding rapidly in that regjon and plans more than double their retail space in the next few years. I believe they cover 10,000 square meters of retail space at the moment, which isn't tremendous (equivalent to about 6 Wal*Mart SuperCenters) . However, this new addition to the client base represents E-Future's widening geographical capability.
They probably won't be releasing any press releases because, referencing my last conversations with the company, announcing every new MyStore partnered retailer would end up creating an endless stream of Press Releases the company fears would end up sending a message to investors that the company is trying to prematurely hype their stock.
Yeah Mark, So Scared I've already made $25,000 shorting This Pig including the fees I had to pay out to short it.
Everytime you pump, I'll be short with another 20K and I'm just one small player. Not good for the manipulators like yourself. I understand the game being played here and the stock has acted predictably. The main buyers now are those covering short positions. Any time short positions decrease, we'll pile on endlessly.
There have been a few positive developments in the company recently and although I feel it may still go down, I don't see HART as the most favorable risk/reward opportunity going short at the 8.XX level anymore.
Good luck on your long positions. I honestly hope this company has success, but this move was too much too soon so I had to take the short side.
Uh Oh, here come the emotional appeals. I think this is one of the 5 stages of investor grief before finally coming to acceptance that they bought a pumped stock at significantly over fair value.
I just am concerned when I see people posting these kind of things. It doesn't hurt to share the information with other prospective investors. The concerns is that a few people may see your post and think it's a desperate seller trying to pump the stock any way he/she can.
They go to exhibitions and meet with potential customers all the time. They advertise and promote at events like this 20-25 times a year.
Of the 20 of so small cap Chinese stocks that I watch, EFUT has performed better than all of them except HPJ over the last 1 and 3 months.
It seems the market is in a bit of a correction. The thing to watch for is when financial stocks start under-performing the tech-stocks. If that happens, the stock market could take a serious dive as leverage, public and private debt demand is what keeps asset prices up.
Recently, EFuture has fallen along with other tech stocks, but has held up better than the majority of small-cap Chinese Stocks.
That being said, I'm on the sidelines for now. I'll wait to see how far down it can be pushed while monitoring developments in the company and broader industry.
Market is getting crushed. Anything and everything is getting crushed, even stocks of quality.
The market isn't always rational while EFuture hasn't proved beyond a reasonable doubt that the MyStore concept will be an indomitable revenue accelerator. If the overall market continues to tank, which it could, EFuture will likely have continued pressure exerted on it as long as there are no new positive developments reported.
If the market holds up, I don't see further pressure being exerted on the stock price.
Have some basic human decency.
You set up an account simply to harrass an anonymous poster online. Go ahead. I won't block you. Low float stocks like this that go down on light volume after repeatedly painting the tape on back to back to back to back closes which subsequently attract basher's with weak investment theses saying a stock at 0.55 P/S with real, competitive products and an exponentially growing new APP plus strong customer loyalty should go down 80% from current levels speaks for itself. Your senseless attempts to scare people here won't work.
Take a large short position to try and scare me. I have a long, long investment horizon.
I think everybody at this board can attest that I was buying in the 2's and the 3's so I'm up considerably right now on my position.
Meanwhile, my SHORT portfolio is up 90% in only a month as I've taken multiple short positions in a few awful, promoted stocks. I sent one short idea to this board which subsequently dropped 30% in short time.
You can continue to try and tarnish my reputation for whatever that's worth to you. I won't be responding to any more of your posts.