I'm perfectly aware of how options hedging works. But thanks for the input.
I didn't mean it would enhance your profit. I recommended buying options because it's smarter to buy long-dated puts rather than directly short because markets tend to move upwards if given enough time.
So I wouldn't short AMZN in equal proportion to BABA, because BABA may outperform AMZN and you'd still end up underperforming the market. Buying puts instead exposes you to the downside, but limits your losses in a rising market.
Correct, if AliBaba sold products like Amazon did, they would have a 0.6 P/S ratio, because I believe they will sell 300 million dollars worth of products this year. Because of the infrastructure in China, and because the shopping habits are developing, it's likely to be closer to 1 trillion by 2034.
Alibaba, at about 55 P/E for 2014, seems pretty fairly valued right now. Not cheap, but not expensive either. Compared to Amazon, I think it's cheap. Buying BABA and Shorting AMZN seems like a pretty good strategy, especially if you can intelligently use PUT/CALLS to add some insurance.
The Caveat is trying to figure out what you are actually buying.
Personally, I'm more excited about E-Future, which trades at 0.6 times sales and hasn't yet monetized MyStore, a mobile purchasing/payments system that has over 1 million installs in only a year.
This company is not like SCOK because the majority of the publicly-held shares are owned by those who understand the inherent risks in the company and aren't likely to sell because they already are aware of the situation within the company.
I have already talked to the company about the possibility of needing to apply for a loan or issue shares in order to support the company during this period of increased investment into MyStore and Omni-Channel.
They believe that at some point they may need funding as they continue to invest into their consumer mobile and online offerings. They suggested that this might be possible in the next 1-2 years. However, at the moment, they are not as cash poor as you may think. By the end of the year 2014, they should be back up to about 9-10m in cash. The 2nd quarter is almost the point where cash draws down to it's expected nadir and then starts to build back up the rest of the year.
I wouldn't be surprised if they have to at some point in 2015 or 2016 raise cash. They are looking for a major breakthrough as to how brick and mortar retailers target, advertise and maintain relationships with their customers while implementing omni-channel solutions for retailers who want to broaden their presence online while maintaining relative independence in their branding, pricing, and promotions.
... Another Nice Win that I found from an article on SINA a few days ago. This contract may have been in the works for a few months, so it may not be new, but it is certainly new to all of us here on this board.
I don't think they will announce it because it isn't a top 100 retailer. It's a collection of sundry merchants who have been buying lots at about 25,000 Yuan/Square Meter, but the commercial center developer has chosen E-Future for purposes listed above. Grand Opening of this Large 160,000 square meter mall coming soon.
30 million yuan investment in the construction of modern logistics management system, the entire integrated system set up by "E-Future" including: corporate information network systems, telephone call centers, CRM information management systems, ERP business information management systems and financial management information system ORACLE services.
No they won't. Period.
Sorry you are stuck in your position. I collected 9,000 shares today, so you'll have to find somebody else you can dump to if you have an itchy finger. There are reasons E-Future could be worth $20.00, but your reason is not one of them.
How were they stonewalled? It seems like everybody who wanted a fill was filled.
Bobwins, I can't take you seriously. Dow will be 1,000,000 within 3 months. Seems crazy now, but watch and learn!
All the movement was in the morning and that was where all the volume was. Pretty simple, really.
May - July = 1,800 per day
August = 6,500 per day
August last year = 10,000 TOTAL USERS
This is before Yonghui goes from 8 store BETA to 350 store rollout and before Zhejiang Supermarket has even added a user at its 1,200 locations. Pretty clear 5 million users is coming not too far in the future.
Exponential growth in a social shopping app in China to be bundled with Omni-Channel Solution (similar to ECOM's ChannelAdvisor in USA) and just accepted by one of top 50 retailers in China. Draw your own conclusion.
They just sold their whole kitchen sink of services to a major supermarket in China validating in a major way the potential of their synergistic product offerings.
I'll let you guys figure out the details.
Yeah, that's a long, long way off. There is nothing even close to a guarantee that they get there. When I highlighted this, I was painting a picture of the more optimistic scenario over the next few years.
And 150 million users wouldn't equate to a price of $15.00-$20.00. That is not even close. If they could reach their most aggressive goals and bring in 150 million users, the value of the company would likely be well over $400.00. That's a long, long way away.
Amazon - approx $750/Customer
JingDong - approx $360/Customer
Twitter - approx $85/User
What'sApp - Approx $42/User a few months ago, likely higher now.
Weibo - approx $25/User
"Yo!" An App which enables people to say "yo" and ONLY "yo" to each other is valued at about $5.00/user.
I am aware that as of this moment that each individual user of MyStore doesn't have much value because it hasn't reached the necessarily thresholds yet in terms of total/active users. However, should they reach those thresholds, value will be unlocked rapidly and explosively.