actually there are hardly any shorts in apple - all those bashers are paid bashers who were paid to keep the price down so their clients could accumulate shares.
agree that there will be some people selling for a repeat of the previous high. but that trade will only last a couple days at most, because when it peaked before, it was AFTER the iPhone launch and this time it is BEFORE the iPhone launch. very different situation.
psychological resistance at 100. not sure i agree it will run that fast. i would look for a testing of 100 and for it to take a while to work past it.
that's all i am asking for. not at all unreasonable.
it is happening again today. up against resistance. it will take heavy buying to move it up through resistance. we still have a week or so before that descending line and support line converge and it gets resolved one way or the other. looks like it might jump the descending line, but who knows? i am fine if it drops back down, gives me a chance to buy more.
i knew about the 70 to 80 million, but wasnt aware of the upside to 120 million. wow! that is a huge number if they come anywhere close. apple is still so hugely undervalued as a company. apple and google are setting up the new duopoly for the future of operating systems. at some point in the near future microsoft is going to begin collapsing in share price. they have an annuity stream in the office products, but as the transition to ios and android continues, microsoft will eventually lose this huge cash flow. i'm looking to buy long-dated put options on microsoft, just need to figure out the best timing.
i believe lulu will turnaround over a year's time period, but to bet on weekly options is pure gambling. if you get lucky and a deal is announced, you make a killing, but the potential for complete loss is huge. pure gambling
move up to test 100. that will be a psychological barrier that will need to be worked through, but after that, should see 110 before the iphone launch in 2 months. lots of upward revisions by analysts will continue from here out, as the impact of the new iphones becomes clear.
doesnt matter. they will release a new iphone with bigger screen which will be a huge hit. then comes the even larger phone. at a p/e that is on par with utilities, any significant growth will drive the share price up. iwatch, iwallet and apple tv are all upside, above and beyond the base iphone 6 launch. many analysts have barely factored iwatch into their projections, so plenty of upside. apple has been undervalued for a while, but i think the market will fall in love with apple this year and push the stock price up quite alot. my target is $150 in a year.
as i do my DD i see a company on the verge of a melt-down. users with twitter data are saying that MAUs are actually falling apart from the World Cup. the first quarter had the Olympics, Super Bowl and Academy Awards, all events that drive advertising plans in the US. this last quarter had only the World Cup and twitter earns much less for international views (less than a third of US). executive turnover also shows that the company is struggling. the plan to introduce new user metrics is a sure sign that management is going to whiff at showing growth on the current metrics. i listened to the last conference call and still have to dissect it,but i can say one thing. #$%$ Costello is a slick snake-oil salesman and you cant trust that guy at all. despite all these really bad signs, the stock price really didnt melt down in recent months. and the p/e remains ridiculously high.
all i'm asking for is 2% a week (not compounded) from here to iphone launch. about 8 weeks and 16% higher. but i will be happy with 10% between now and launch and another 6% in the 2 weeks after launch.
most of the short positions are from hedge funds that use a long-short strategy to be largely market neutral. so they dont hate stocks, they are just trying to pick the winners and losers. i am probably going short twitter next week. $20 billion for a stock with no growth and no earnings will get clobbered.
no, big funds accumulating, but i agree that the options writers having a hard time pushing it around.
i would much prefer they keep this stock public and get an activist shareholder to come in. the descending resistance is so close to the support now that it will not take much to push it over. big resistance at 43-45, but once they clear that, it can move to 50 with little resistance. lots of gaps up to fill on the charts. heavy short interest tells me lulu is a rocket ready to take off, but it needs a spark to ignite that fuel.
you are correct. i was hoping the options writers would trash it to make the premiums expire worthless, so i could buy a little more, but looks ripe to take off next week. heading to mid 99's and from there, we will see exactly what transpires next.
actually, the only reason i'm not shorting it here is that i think all the articles have set up an environment where twitter will move up fast on ANY decent report. take a look at the market cap of netflix and twitter. about the same. which company has a better future - netflix by far. netflix p/e ratio looks tame compared to twitter. twitter was an early internet fad that is fading. kids have moved on and twitter is just hanging in there, but the advertising value of twitter is pretty suspect. the only hope for twitter is that world cup led to higher revenues and engagement. but post-world cup, twitter is going to fall. i see $10 billion valuation in 1 year from now, and that might even be generous.
for the past year apple has been almost counter to the market. i think it is more a result of some algorithms that are running, which almost use apple as a form of low-risk security, like a treasury. sounds strange, but i'm pretty sure this is trading algorithms, because it has been happening for at least the last year.