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Logitech International SA Message Board

mngtscrwdup 338 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 26, 2015 4:52 PM Member since: Mar 10, 2005
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  • this environment is so choppy, you need to be sure not to buy into rallies or sell into sell offs. make sure you do the opposite and you will do much better.

  • this looks like a rally that will die and then more downside.

  • Reply to

    make no mistake here folks......

    by txtrader77 Aug 25, 2015 2:23 PM
    mngtscrwdup mngtscrwdup Aug 26, 2015 1:17 PM Flag

    big funds slowly liquidating to bring up cash positions. it looks like we have a market where bonds and stocks move down at the same time. even treasuries are down again today. if bonds and stocks both fall, it gets doubly worse. if treasuries decline during stock market sell-off, it means the market doesnt even trust the US gov anymore. that would be a huge change, although i still think it unlikely in the near term.

  • mngtscrwdup by mngtscrwdup Aug 24, 2015 10:01 AM Flag

    this will be huge for king. europe are the strongest markets for king and will provide a nice tailwind for earnings/revenues this quarter and next. king is coming back today, although still might be in red

  • crazy how high the stock price. they cant grow without spending more than they make. this kind of garbage is doing down a long way

  • mngtscrwdup mngtscrwdup Aug 21, 2015 7:32 PM Flag

    they need a big shake-up at the fed

  • mngtscrwdup by mngtscrwdup Aug 21, 2015 7:14 PM Flag

    we are in uncharted territory.

  • mngtscrwdup by mngtscrwdup Aug 21, 2015 7:13 PM Flag

    the stocks with high percentage of individual investors got clobbered today. stocks like CMG that have high institutional ownership held up much better. but as investors pull more money from the fund managers, they will be forced to sell. at some point, fund managers will be the final ones to capitulate

  • Reply to

    the way this is going to roll out

    by mngtscrwdup Aug 21, 2015 1:13 PM
    mngtscrwdup mngtscrwdup Aug 21, 2015 4:07 PM Flag

    maybe you care to elaborate on why it is wrong? the only other thing i did not mention is that CMG is a domestic company and companies getting hit have international exposure. so CMG is trading less down.

  • mngtscrwdup by mngtscrwdup Aug 21, 2015 2:47 PM Flag

    been working to get some upside on this downside, but a little late to that party. still probably more downside in the market as a whole. that bounce today makes me think that when the market positive, king is ready to move up fast.

  • here is who the market decline is going to happen. right now, companies with high individual stock ownership are getting toasted - for example apple. super high trading volume and being slaughtered. the stocks that are getting less slaughtered have high institutional ownership. because they arent selling that much. but as the plunge continues and investors start pulling money out of the hands of the "pros" those high p/e stocks are going to get trashed, brutally. there are also going to be large short sellers (hedge funds and traders) who will target specific stocks and start crushing them. CMG has 93% ownership, so it is riding high for now. just wait.

  • my theory is that the reason PB is performing so much better in Europe is that there is a much stronger player network in Europe and King has only promoted PB through free advertising to current players. once the title gets marketing support the title will move back up into the top downloads in many other markets. in europe PB has been in the top 10 downloads for quite a while, which puts it in the top charts and keeps downloads rolling. in US i think PB will need marketing support to keep it in the top download charts.

    asian markets will be real interesting. PB is doing well in South Korea, that is the type of a market where marketing might make it the highest grossing King title.

    just a theory, let's see how it plays out once android launches and they put PB on heavy marketing support.

  • mngtscrwdup mngtscrwdup Aug 18, 2015 1:55 PM Flag

    a drop of $80 million in revenues is just not going to happen and you know it. king always guides conservatively and then beats the number. they are half the way through the quarter when they forecast and had a week of PB results to help them forecast those revenues. last 2 quarters they have beat top end of guidance, but this coming quarter i believe they were even more conservative and will beat high end by $20+ million on topline. that would mean a very small drop from Q2.

    july and august are the toughest seasonality for king and there are some titles from competitors that are gaining traction. but this is accounted for in king's guidance.

    listen to the conference call and you will hear clearly that marketing on PB will be ramped up after the android launch. that makes sense because you dont spend ad dollars when it is not available on both platforms. that will be the catalyst for PB to gain significant rankings, which is the upside catalyst near-term. PB is doing great on iphone in Europe and let's see where it ends up after marketing support in the US. PB is also doing better in Asian markets than all king titles except CCSS. after the android launch and marketing, it is possible those chart positions really move up (since the player network for king in asian markets is weak, marketing dollars will have a larger proportionate impact on chart position).

    there are still plenty of sellers at 14 level, so i expect it takes a while to clear that, but looks to me that there are buyers who will absorb any shares they can get at this level. will be interesting to see the short interest number. i dont think the short positions have been covered hardly at all.

    your last few posts are making some claims that seem pretty far-fetched.

  • mngtscrwdup mngtscrwdup Aug 17, 2015 3:58 PM Flag

    i dont think too many shorts covered on friday. i think that some big funds sold and other funds/hedge managers bought. the guys that sold are the lemmings that jump out of stocks AFTER they have gotten beaten up. the price action friday and today is suggesting that some very large funds are simply buying up shares, but have no interest in running up the stock quickly. there are going to be more shares that get sold as we get to 14 and above, so the buyers will just keep absorbing those shares over the next week(s). as I have said elsewhere, the next catalyst is the android launch and subsequent marketing support for PB that will move it up the charts. the headlines on thursday/friday were enormously geared at clearing out the suckers.

  • king is not heavily marketing paradise bay right now because they dont want to spend marketing $$ on a title with no android version. so expect the game to be soft until android launches and then the marketing really hits and the game takes off again. so dont be disappointed by soft PB numbers prior to the android launch. once tv advertising rolls out, then PB will hit the top 10 charts everywhere

  • Reply to

    something is not right

    by money_walker Aug 14, 2015 2:55 PM
    mngtscrwdup mngtscrwdup Aug 14, 2015 5:37 PM Flag

    think gaming must "forecast" revenues from the chart positions. almost impossible to do at the top of the charts. so they probably have an algorithm that is based on the financials of the company. i assume that those think gaming numbers were adjusted down based on the forward guidance of king. more likely that king's forward guidance is actually just a lowball number. this is what management does right before a turn around, they throw out the worst possible guidance and then beat the heck out of it going forward.

  • Reply to

    sellers at 14

    by mngtscrwdup Aug 14, 2015 1:49 PM
    mngtscrwdup mngtscrwdup Aug 14, 2015 2:34 PM Flag

    i dont think we clear 14 today, but next week. who are these big money managers who get it so wrong all the time? they drive looking in the rear-view mirror.

  • mngtscrwdup by mngtscrwdup Aug 14, 2015 1:49 PM Flag

    there are definitely sellers at 14 who had bought in at that previous support and are going to get out at that level, so we need the big buyers to absorb more shares until those sellers are gone. lots of big positions were bought or sold today

  • Reply to

    A leaking bucket

    by kronhh Aug 14, 2015 11:09 AM
    mngtscrwdup mngtscrwdup Aug 14, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    agreed. just waiting a little longer to start buying up long-dated options. how many sucker sellers are there? we will find out by end of day. the big buyers will be happy to take shares at this price. the company beat earnings and the only issue is that games are being pushed back. with a p/e ratio of around 6 after cash for the year, it is like king lives in an alternative world. but i am prepared for even more downside through monday, as the bashing of wall street is very effective. these manipulators are very good at what they do. look at the benzinga article where they basically lied about the eps, expenses, etc. it was pure fiction.

  • Reply to

    A leaking bucket

    by kronhh Aug 14, 2015 11:09 AM
    mngtscrwdup mngtscrwdup Aug 14, 2015 11:25 AM Flag

    more basher lies for the day. much of the quarter to quarter drop from q1 to q2 is seasonality. q3 is also soft seasonally. king has not even started to market PB heavily, they have to wait for the android version to come out before they pump the title since it makes no sense to spend marketing dollars until consumers can download on both platforms. the last 2 quarters king has beat the upper range of revenue guidance by 10 million and they will do it again the next 2 quarters. this is the bottom in the stock as the media put on a full-court press to bash the company. 1.80 in earnings this year, $2 of cash per share. makes this a p/e of around 6. smart money is eating up all the shares they can get here. the bashers cant argue with REAL numbers, they have to bash with these statements like $50 million in revenue gone each quarter. yea right.

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