pincus is not going to take the risk of taking this private with his own money and noone will give him the money with his track record. zynga is almost a cautionary tale for IPOs gone bad. as in, "Goldman Sachs pulled a Zynga on that new IPO"
is the company trading below cash and real estate value now? it should be as they will keep bleeding the value of the company year after year. they can't even get DOT to rank well in test markets.
apple has been relatively strong because it is using cash to buy back shares. that can only last so long, the stock will find true value over time, despite stock buy-backs.
i agree that this company has amazing potential and the fact that they are getting government, pharma, insurers, researchers and hospitals all aligned behind the vision is pretty huge. what other pharma company is getting so much support from other pockets? the only problem here is that NK is years away from getting through clinical trials and ramping up to commercial exploitation. i don't see them running out of money, the manufacturing is relatively simple, the go-to-market will also be simple. only question is whether the efficacy will be proven out and how that translates into revenues. the big problem is that if noone will touch pharma, NK can keep losing value. i think that $5 a share has to be the minimum price, but i still don't want to lose 15% to get in. tried to get in today and then got right back out as it had no buying support.
the only problem with NK is that it is still quite a ways away from revenues. the potential for this company is simply huge, the NK cells can be combined with many different drugs to improve efficacy to target a very wide range of illnesses, but there will be no clinical trial results until 2017. that means investors have to believe in the long-term value, not an immediate drug trial or approval by FDA. but the lack of toxicity in patients is fabulous and as long as efficacy is proven, this is the biotech with huge upside. however, in this market, best to wait for it to reach a market value of $450 million before buying.
almost all that expense was stock options that were granted and expensed as the company went public. that is a one-time expense. i think the new cfo was fired for handling the IPO poorly, the initial price was too high and as a result the selling pressure has taken the company down much farther than it should have gone. alot of this is biotech companies in general, but it looks poised for a rebound. it just needs to break through that defending line.
i think that activision is putting in place alot of transformative steps that make it an industry leader in entertainment, but i do agree there is some risk associated with these things. probably a little defensive in the short term, but very good for the longer term. they bought the MLG for chump change and hiring the hollywood folks will also be relatively cheap and they can use other people's money to fund the movie costs, so i don't agree this has that much downside. but i do think that some of the franchises are weakening and that is the problem.
the market is slaughtering anything with a high p/e. activation's p/e rose quite a bit over the past year relative to historical numbers. i think that activision is in a great place to double within 2 years, but there might be substantial downside due to the market before that happens. i would be looking at 26 as a low if the market breaks support, which looks likely.
is that high p/e stocks are getting crushed. relative to kors, kate has a high p/e and needs the growth story to warrant the price. as a result, i will not be playing the long side for the next earnings report. the price of kate will be mostly dependent upon the estimates for the coming quarter. i am worried that those estimates could be a little light.
the problem here is that linked in is dependent upon companies advertising for workers. with employment hitting the skids, do you really expect that revenue estimates wont keep getting hit again and again and again? this is a falling knife and will be a great company to invest in someday. i expect a big bounce in the near future, but then continual free falls as it gets taken down. so the only way to play this one is to trade it. but you better be a great trader if you want to make money.
and the high p/e stocks will be the big movers down. after google released earnings there was no more reason to hold these pigs up. the market wont stabilize until prices are much lower