let's hope that twitter soars. the higher it goes the better short it becomes. twitter will crash later in the year as growth evaporates. also, the whole market is getting set up for a huge crash. look at the charts on the fed's balance sheet - it currently owns between 30-50% of all treasury debt and is soaking up 60% of all mortgage backed security debt. that is INSANE! meanwhile banks have 2.5 billion of excess capital sitting at the fed. so why are these banks not putting their capital at risk? simple. they know a crash is coming and plan to stay out of the way. the risk has been transferred to the taxpayer.
what a scam! this can only end very badly.
he is adding to positions in high p/e stocks like amzn, tsla, twtr. a fool and his money soon part ways, this bozo is buying in right before the crash. give it a week or two to bounce up and form the other shoulder of head and shoulders formation, then the market falls apart.
goog has pushed advertising revenues on the platform as far as it can go. they have expanded the area dedicatd to ads and last year started charging for the product listing ads. those drivers of growth are now gone and as an advertiser myself, i am seeing fewer desktop clicks from the same keywords and positions. google is a very smart company and has diversifed into other revenue lines, but none of those will be highly profitable, like search. great company, but not a good investment at this time.
pump that twitter stock so they can exit in a few weeks at a higher price. find those suckers to take the bait. the nasdaq should rally for a little bit here until it fails aroudn 4200 and puts in the second shoulder of the head and shoulders formation, which is very bearish.
i love tesla as a company and think elon is smart enough to create a brilliant future, but tesla is just not a good company to be long during a market sell-off. not only is the p/e high, but the people who buy teslas have money in the markets and when the markets go down, noone feels rich enough to buy the car. so tesla stock gets hit with the double-whammy of falling p/e and also falling sales, which triggers more falling p/e. let it fall and buy it later, once the carnage is on the streets.
i had thought we were looking at a head and shoulders formation, but today makes it look like there is not even enough support for the second shoulder. if that is the case, then this market is going to turn VERY ugly. i've been all cash for a month, but wish i had bought some put options to make money on the downside. maybe we still get that bounce, but it better come soon!
i had thought we would get support and a rally off the 4000 support on the nasdaq. right now, it is not looking like support is anywhere near. if we dont get a rally soon, this is going to get VERY ugly
that is exactly what you tell everyone while you are buying put option protection on the stock so it doesnt matter if you sell. then you start selling your position and your options start to rise rapidly and you just sit back because you locked in your price.
so 4000 is the support level. the question is where we go from here? my guess is that we are going to test the 3980 to 4000 range several times in the next couple days. then the descending resistance line will also be tested until one of these two lines wins. most likely the support holds and then we start to bounce up. the next rally should fall just short of 4200 on the nasdaq. if that happens, then it is the perfect time to get fully short on the market, because that is the end of the head and shoulders pattern.
after a day or two establishing a base at 4000 and they ignite a short little fire that creates the final shoulder of the head and shoulders formation. if that happens and the rally fails, then the head and shoulders is complete and the market will proceed to an official bear market. the only other possibility is that the markets dont even bounce, but just fall below 4000 and get REAL ugly.
we are now just completing the head portion of the head and shoulders pattern. looks like it will take a few days to establish support in the 3908 to 4000 range. a few tests to the upside and downside are likely. as we get closer to the descending resistance line, watch for a breakout. either upside or downside. once that happens, get on the right side of that trade. most likely it bounces to complete the head and shoulders, but if it fails to rally, then it will precipitate a big crash.
this market is governed by technicians. it will take 3-4 or so days to work through the downside move. during those days the nasdaq will keep re-testing support at 4,000. best idea is to stay on the sidelines, keep powder dry and wait to see if it moves up through resistance line, if the area of 3980 to 4000 is defended, which i think it will be, then there will be a nice bounce up. which will be short lived - maybe 2 weeks - then more downside. if we meaningfully break 3980, watch out below. the market will crash. be nimble, my friends.
the nasdaq simply needs to move down to 4000 so it can establish a solid base at old support line. once we get to 4000, it will spend some time just re=forming that base of support and then move back up one last time. but the damage is done. this run is over. the bear is in charge and will claw any company that is not based on solid fundamentals - like twitter.
again and again i told all of you that this was a head and shoulders formation. we are just completing the head right now. the second shoulder is coming soon. support at 4000 or right around there will materialize for the next couple days, then a fast bounce back up to 4200, but that move up will be led by old tech, not high-fliers. then the next leg down starts in about another week or two. the big question is whether it will be an orderly retreat, or a really bad retreat.
the nasdaq is really trading on textbook chart movements. the next support level is 4000, where it will put in a double bottom from past support and begin the second shoulder phase of the head and shoulders formation.
what will be my verse? really? that is the marketing they run? why not run a marketing campaign that tells people that the operating system upgrades are always free and that they dont drop support like Microsoft did for XP? or develop a more robust office suite, develop a version for windows that is free and then run a campaign that tells them they get free office suites for life? instead we have What will your verse be?
My verse is:
Apple management is a bunch of nitwits
Investors in this company should be throwing fits
Doesn't Tim Cook's face look like he had alot of teenage zits?
No wonder Apple stock is still in the shi--
How do they like that verse?
this head and shoulders pattern is forming in all the indexes, but the next week will confirm whether the s&p and russell 5000 also plunge into the end of this formation. this is not about anything but technical trading.