the problem with greece is not that greece is big enough to bring the financial system down. it is that the whole financial system is built on unstable ground right now. zero percent interest rates. china stock market bubble. US markets at all time highs. small cap and momentum stocks running hard. value stocks going nowhere. transports diverging from the broader market, pointing to a downturn. gas prices falling and killing american energy industry and jobs. portugal and spain feared to be the next dominos to fall. greece is not the problem. the problem is the whole financial system. lots of volatility to come. protect yourself, but be prepared for opportunities to make money fast.
greece is only a small part of the iceberg. let's see if euro markets start tumbling. i think very high p/e companies like netflix that have been traded based on pure momentum are going to finally fall.
wishing doesnt make it true. the markets will not collapse, but this is the start of a turn down. the bull market has worn out. apple is a low p/e, so not really too much downside here. best to sell high p/e stocks.
apple is a bargain, but much of the market is in bubble territory as far as valuations. china market has been imploding.
there is a very real chance that the greek issue is merely the straw that sets off a chain of bubbles popping.
keep an eye on high-flying stocks like netflix, they might come plummeting down. keep an eye on bonds, if yields rise and bond prices fall that is going to lead to trouble. keep an eye on junk debt defaults, the chinese market, etc. lots of bubbles out there could start to burst.
it was the inclusion of king in the russell index. given that index funds needed to add alot of shares, the lack of upward price movement over the past weeks is troubling to say the least. i still have a little stock, but dont feel great about king at this point. why the heck would they not release a game for 6 months and then release alphabetty, which does not monetize? i assumed they were simply pushing back titles so they could release only AAA titles. but a great game that doesnt monetize? that is not a great game.
king has one of the biggest upside potentials of any company out there. fabulous user base. ability to get games downloaded to millions of players. a player network that is bigger than twitter and about a third of facebook, but could be expanded to half of facebook with the right games.
but they have no clue how to monetize the players. i need to hear how they plan to change the monetization of the games or create a way of monetizing players outside of the games. also concerned that paradise bay has been in soft launch for like 6 months and the game is still frustrating players with long grow times that are not making it fun.
the next game is scrubby dubby, another riff off their core match type games. but once again, a game that probably wont monetize. so if they know how to build a massive audience, they need to figure out how to turn that into growing revenues, not launch titlles with lower monetization than current games. lower monetization games will simply pull players away from playing games that monetize. not a smart move.
king - great potential, but possibly a terrible management that got lucky one and has no clue how to repeat the success of candy crush. i will only trade king until i see a clear vision of how they really monetize. be careful of any upside in the next day to two, it might be a head-fake based solely on the Russell add. need to see if it holds before it is a tradeable move.
calling a referendum on the bailtout is a way of trying to wash his hands of this huge failure. next week is a big run on greek banks and lots of collapsing bubbles. glad i am almost all cash.
i dont think there is anything suspicious about the upgrade. it is simply an oppoetunity for certain very big hedge funds to liquidate alot of shares without tanking the stock price immediately. but as they start selling, they do drive the price down and it starts it falling. i had a small stock where i owned a large position and had to slowly dump my shares so the price didnt tank. but the market starts to see all the selling and the price does go down. if i have a hard time getting out without temporarily driving the price down, these big traders have a much bigger problem dumping their large holdings. the one advantage you and I have over the big players is that we can get in and out fast. in a stock this size, your buying or selling essentially has no impact.
there is a simple reason the stock sells off after a big upgrade. some big funds need cover to sell alot of shares. they want to start selling at a time that everyone is buying at a high price, and they use that pop on upgrade to start selling. remember, they have so many shares that it will take days of selling to get rid of them. just a few funds selling out over a multi day period can drop the stock fast.
and the iphone 6 was very successful, but way overdue. how much longer did it take for apple to come out with a bigger screen than android vendors?
he is a great coo, but not a good ceo. apple is launching alot of new stuff, but so far, the new categories under tim are underperforming - the watch, apple Pay, apple TV (where is it?)
apple needs a reed hastings or elon musk at the helm.
netflix is one of the stocks i am using as a "canary in the coal mine". once they break the uptrend line, investors will start to ask whether the p/e is actually sustainable. netflix is a GREAT company, but the valuation requires them to be insanely great.
watch netflix. when it breaks the uptrend line, it is time to get out of all sky-high p/e stocks
still love apple, but the market is going screwy. companies like netflix have moved up way too far, too fast. needs a correction and even undervalued apple gets hit.
and all the high-flyers are going to break down through the uptrend line. unless stocks like apple start to rise, the whole market is dependent upon these high-flying stocks that are breaking down through uptrend lines.
i am watching netflix to see the overall market direction. if netflix breaks that uptrend line, it will take other high p/e, trend stocks with it. keep an eye on broken advancing trendlines over the next week. if it happens, it means some downside is coming.
but i sold out today as i dont like how weakened the trading is, and i hate the way the most risky stocks keep rising. is apple undervalued? heck yes. but the market right now is being run by trading strategies, and a high premium for growth, not fundamental valuation.
throw out the bums and let the country burn. that will strengthen the euro, as no other country will dare to resist proper financial controls. you cant keep paying crazy pensions to people for a lack of work.