my guess is that the options writers believe apple will have a hard time getting past 100. i think that apple touches 100, sells off just briefly and then ignites above 100, sending options prices soaring. so just hang in there.
i am still learing about KATE and still need to learn more. i am comparing KATE to KORS and wondering if kate is standing where kors was just 2 years ago (kors grew from 1.3 billion to over 3 billion in sales during that time. kors is worth $15 billion and kate is worth $4 billion, so if kate can copy the growth trajectory of kors, that is a 4 bagger. but i dont know if kate has the same growth ramp as kors and where it stands in relation, so I am digging more into this. from my perspective i thin the kate brand is fresher than kors.
regarding short sellers. i have been in many companies that were either being shorted or hated by wall street. as a matter of fact, i LOVE companies that are unfairly hated because it offers way more upside potential. netflix and tesla are perfect examples of high short interest that helped to propel huge upside gains. apple is an example of a stock that was not heavily shorted, but misunderstood. your example of QCOR is far different. biotech companies are something that is a pure gamble - who knows if the FTC will approve their drug - i would never take a huge position in a biotech that was under attack, i would only play momentum in that type of stock.
the future of kate is dependent upon international expansion. can they turn it into a global brand? right now they delivered almost zilch in ebitda from international. assuming they can grow international to 50% of total revenues and ebitda contribution in 2 years would mean that kate would follow kors trajectory and close to a 3 billion company at good ebitda.
short sellers cant control a stock price if the company is doing great. they can only cause short term distortions. what matters is whether kate is being well managed and growth path that is "inevitable", and that is what I am researching.
can you give me any more information on how you use options activity to predict future stock prices?
either a bozo or more likely a #$%$. the guy has been covering the game business for decades and can't figure this out? another wall street #$%$.
if the iWatch is real cool and released in oct, that price target is very doable. once apple clears 100, the momentum will catch on.
that would be a huge mistake. apple was priced as a value stock for a while. now wall street sees there is actually a growth story. you have to remember that wall street is filled with ivy league idiots who all talk to each other and run in packs like lemmings! apple will probably need to sell off when it hits 100, but will only drop to 97-98 this time and then will run past 100. the price target for 1 year is 150, i know that sounds crazy, but the iPhone 6 in 2 sizes, iwallet and watch, along with new enterprise sales and apple software in cars and home and health are going to really drive this company forward. most fund managers are still underweight apple and will have to add to positions or risk falling behind their index comparisons. i don't care if you short it ,but unless the market collapses, you will lose money.
it was highly undervalued and has a lot of catching up to do. the p/e of apple was set as a value stock with no growth priced in. look at the projections for earnings in the next fiscal year. goldman has $7.70 in earnings projected, which ex-cash is a p/e of under 12. try applying those same multiples to google or amazon or netflix! wall street is just starting to understand that the iPhone and apple ecosystem is a huge moat and getting bigger. the future of technology is apple and google. but apple has more room to run in upside valuation. 150 in a year from now.
can anyone explain the differences between kate and KORS in terms of who the customer is? i think kate looks and feels so much more fresh than KORS, but i am a dude and need to better understand this. thanks for any education, as i am thinking of investing in kate but need to get my DD done.
what i love about kate is that the management team is not standing still, they are moving all the pieces around at once. debt position is changing rapidly, so balance sheet is changing. sold lucky and juicy brands so overhead is changing. rapid evolution of product offerings. rapid evolution of store base. growth of Saturdays brand. investment in international expansion will start to get gross margin positive within the next year. it is real tough to know how big the upside is on kate. which makes it a great potential investment. i think that kate is about a year away from really getting a clean balance sheet and expanding ebitda to where wall street can assign it a bigger valuation. i look at kate vs. KORS and think there is no reason kate can't have a $15B valuation like KORS. i like the potential for the Jack Spade brand for men - very cool name - i can already visualize the type of products that make sense. i hope they get that brand right. wall street analysts - thanks for being so myopic, I was looking for a new stock to put some money to work.
in the past weeks a lot of retailers have been announcing lower margins and higher promotional activities to get customers to open their wallets- and every retailer that reports lower margins is getting hit. i have just been listening to the conference call this weekend and they are guiding gross margin down due to needing to match promotional activity from competitors. i think the reason kate spade is so disproportionately impacted by margin is that the brand is heavily investing in growth and thus does not currently show much profit. small differences in gross margin have a big impact on p/e ratios at this stage of the game for kate. wall street is so short-term focused that they seem to only be able to look 1-2 quarters in the future. the ceo and coo both talked about seeing that promotional environment last into the near future. i understand your pain with the stock dropping, i have experienced some of these big drops myself and it is not fun. you have to ask yourself if you were wrong about the stock, or if this is a temporary dip and a great bargain (did wall street just run a sale price on kate stock?). overall, gross margin erosion of 3.2% (2.4% was Saturday inventory write-downs, so .8% of erosion in the quarter). but they guided the ebitda up for the second half of the year, so wall street simply focused on the wrong numbers. as more of the number crunchers do their analysis, i believe the stock will start to move back up. if you can afford it, double down on your position and you will be back to even by 36. you may call this manipulation, but i call it opportunity. check out my other email on kate.
if you believe it is stock manipulation then it is a great investment and you should thank them for giving you an opportunity to buy more. i had owned some apple a couple years ago when the market started to hate the stock and held on and then bought more at the lows. now we are set to move past highs and explode to the upside on apple. finding stocks that wall street doesn't understand is your JOB as an independent investor. just have the guts to know you are right and that the price will reflect it i the future. but do your DD or you might just be wrong. kate looks good to me, still researching, but it looks good.
don't worry about the drop, if it was not warranted, it will reverse quickly. i'm looking to buy in and keep buying starting monday. the gross margin is a real concern and if wall street reacted poorly, it is a great opportunity to buy more. the whole retail segment has been hit hard this week.
this company is being restructured so very quickly that in one year from now the financial statements will look very different. debt reduced to $260 million by end of year and probably reduced further the following year means interest expense will evaporate. the divestiture of lucky and juicy brands is complete so the operating margins and leverage on sg&a will be much better, the adjusted ebitda for international is minuscule right now, but as they start to leverage their expansion, that will grow very rapidly. i'm still trying to get to the bottom of the gross margin changes, but the saturday brand liquidations are one-time, so the actual decline in gross margin seems to be only .77%. one-time shift to outlet stores might also be contributing to margin declines, but they will be opening mostly full price stores in future. i heard one comment from the cfo about full year margin decline of 125-150 basis points and I want to understand how much of that is due to the aforementioned saturday brand liquidations, and how much is anticipated drop in margins for future quarters. since i am new to this company, there is a lot to learn quickly, but my first impression is that the drop was a mistake by wall street. the kate spade business seems well on track and growth opportunities abound. seems like they have barely scratched the surface of international expansion opportunities, and future quarter financial statements will not be burdened by the juicy and lucky brands. i'm glad the difference in editda is due to costs that are generally being reduced or eliminated. still doing DD, but seems like by end of year, should easily rebound to above highs.
i think those photos on TMZ were pre-production samples, if you read a little further. they could also be complete fakes. pretty unlikely that apple will come out with a design that is completely ugly.
no he is paid a tenth of a penny per post. paid posters are part of the whole disinformation campaign that certain big traders have set up. notice how last week the media came out with every possible story for why apple would fall, and then this week, it was back to positive articles? just part of the pump, dump, pump cycle. being a small investor is an advantage here because we are able to buy or sell everything in an instant. use these cycles to your advantage. load up on declines and lighten up on peaks, particularly if the peak occurs as the overall market flattens. in the short term apple's stock price is driven by traders, in the medium term, but investor inflows and outflows and in the long term, by the performance of the company.
they make money by the post and live in third world countries. nice article about the potential for upside on apple once it breaks 100. my thoughts exactly. the technicals seem to be strong on apple. the only thing to kill the apple party is a market meltdown, which i dont see happening right now. this market is still climbing a wall of worry to higher levels. where it stops, i dont know, but it needs a bigger bubble to burst.
getting up to the top of the previous range, but seems alot of buyers for the stock who want to get in before the media event. there will be plenty of resistance as we get close to 100 and i anticipate it will move back down to maybe 98 after touching 100, then it will make the move above 100 in the final 2 weeks before the event. clearing 100 will mean alot of price target upgrades and more info on the iphone and iwatch will really get the stock moving up. going to be hard for these message board bashers over the coming month. watch for them to change IDs regularly.
for 11 million in technology development per quarter they should be getting alot of bang for their buck. they need a big new idea of how to leverage their customer base, assets and build a new business model. this is going to require real out of the box thinking.