i am watching netflix to see the overall market direction. if netflix breaks that uptrend line, it will take other high p/e, trend stocks with it. keep an eye on broken advancing trendlines over the next week. if it happens, it means some downside is coming.
but i sold out today as i dont like how weakened the trading is, and i hate the way the most risky stocks keep rising. is apple undervalued? heck yes. but the market right now is being run by trading strategies, and a high premium for growth, not fundamental valuation.
throw out the bums and let the country burn. that will strengthen the euro, as no other country will dare to resist proper financial controls. you cant keep paying crazy pensions to people for a lack of work.
the market is being fueled by hedge funds betting on growth stories. as soon as that cools, the market is going to tumble. netflix is one of the best stocks to watch for when it breaks the uptrend line. i think it breaks within a week. not to say i dislike netflix as a company. it is a great company.
you might be right, but only if the market continues to rise. it is very alarming to me that the riskiest stocks are now moving up, while stocks with low p/e are moving down. along with more china market meltdown i think this market is looking very stretched. if the market stops over-valuing growth, FIT will be a good short. i'm waiting and watching.
by the way, my wife bought me a fitbit and i returned it. the functionality is so limited, not really worthwhile. i wanted to use it to track my sleep, but it doesnt really track sleep, only tracks motion, which is a very crude proxy for sleep. also i can use an app to track my biking. i am interested in apple's watch if it tracks heartrate effectively. i think that shake shack and fitbit are 2 very dangerous IPOs, no where near the upside potential of gopro.
i agree that if apple moves down, the market goes with it. i disagree that iphone sales are poor, but i do think that china's stock market could really burst and that would reduce china's upper class consumption.
what really worries me is the way that the small caps and biotechs and anything with a high p/e ratio has been moving up. it is a sign of speculation, and that ends badly.
when the recent hype stocks of FIT and SHAK are moving up on a day when big solid companies are moving down. just not a good sign. i sold out of a bunch of stuff earlier today. with china stocks crashing, bond yields soaring and bond funds going down, plus a greek exit lending uncertainty, there is just too much risk. apple is a great company, but the stock market being run by the hedge funds who are going to kill it off.
the monetization on alphabetty is just slow. take a look at wordbrain, the #1 word game. it keeps growing steadily. alphabetty is getting great downloads and will also keep moving up. my guess is that it eventually moves up to the Farm Heroes level. Paradise Bay can monetize much quicker than Alphabetty, if they do it right.
monetization took a big jump in the last day in the soft launch markets. big question is whether this will stay in soft launch for a while or if king brings it out quickly. paradise bay will have better monetization than alphabetty.
probably the best sign for this game is that downloads are actually improving. monetization is still lagging, but it might be that this type of game requires more time to develop a dedicated audience willing to pay. my guess is that the stock is going to rise from here as the market realizes that alphabetty is going to be a strong success. it isnt another candy crush, but it shows that king can launch titles in other genres, which has been the criticism of short sellers.
if king can get a game like alphabetty saga to deliver good results, think what happens when it moves into a genre with better monetization, like paradise bay and resource management. paradise bay code must be getting fully re-worked as there has not been a new version release since march. my guess is that they have a new release within a month, and then another month or two to balance gameplay before launch, so 2-3 months to full launch. just a guess. i know they wont release it until it is ready.
when you compare alphabetty to a title like farm heroes there is a hugely different story being told by downloads and grossing charts. farm heroes never reached higher than the #3 download position and moved down to the #8 position within 2 weeks, whereas alphabetty hit the #1 position and after a small move down, has gone right back to the #1 download position. the question is how long will it stay there?
grossing charts are completely different. farm heroes moved up the grossing charts very fast to #27 within 7 days, whereas alphabetty has stalled out under the top 100 position. so the game does not monetize quickly, but the real question for the future of the game is whether it builds monetization over time. that will determine the near-term direction of king stock.
the grossing number for alphabetty on iphone looks ugly right now, stalled out at mid 100's. my read on this is that it is temporary. i think word games take much longer to monetize, players have to work deeper into the game to get hooked and spend money than a match game. also, the target audience (women in late 20's to 40's) is busy with kids getting out of school, vacations, etc. if this is right, then today or tomorrow is the bottom and the alphabetty numbers improve over the weekend and climb all next week and the stock will follow. if this read on the situation is not correct and alphabetty never monetizes well, then more downside. watch the download numbers to see how long they stay up. if downloads remain strong for several weeks, grossing will eventually follow. also watch the trend on grossing to see if it enters a steady climb.
king works hard to know the monetization of games before they release them, so I am assuming they didnt just release a game that will never monetize well. i'm buying a little more today and tomorrow.
my read on this is that the market is reacting to the grossing charts for alphabetty. particularly in the US, it has stalled out on the grossing charts in the past couple days. i think when you look closer at the charts for a game like wordbrain (the #1 word game), you will see that this type of game takes alot longer to build monetization. my guess is that it takes longer to establish players willing to fork out money. the download charts for alphabetty look pretty strong (a little better in Europe than US) but if wordbrain is a good analogy, then this type of game might have very good legs and continue to climb. the market is watching the new game very closely and if my guess is right, by next week the market will see a slow but continual ramp up on the grossing charts and king will move back up. if i am wrong and monetization does not improve, then the downtrend will remain in place. i think that the other big issue is how quickly then can fix the problems with paradise bay. really great look to that game, but has some technical and gameplay problems to be worked out.
i was considering selling, due to the slow ramp up on the grossing charts for alphabetty, but then i realized that this type of game has a slow monetization ramp up. much slower than games like candy crush. take a look at how a game like wordbrain started off slow and has gradually worked up to the #$%$ position and keeps gaining.
the stock is down because people are not accounting for that slow monetization and are throwing in the towel. but downloads are going very strong and this game is going to have longer legs and keep climbing (in my opinion). also, the numbers in the US are lagging other countries and so at first glance it looks worse than when you dig into it. might be a little more downside before it turns around, due to that slow ramp up in monetization of the new game.