i think that since the Anroid version of PB they have not yet heavily marketed the title. so there is more upside to this title as it gets a marketing push.
i think it gets real ugly and then bounces back. it all comes down to whether the large hedge/funds that own it decide to cut bait and run, or double down. if i were a big hedge fund i would let the stock fall and then come in and buy up large quantities. i dont think the long-term performance of the company looks any different, but the timing of launches killed that forecast. i actually had sold 1/3 of my position in the last 2 days, but wish i had sold the whole thing . i will use that money to buy in lower and think within a week i will be back up to even.
still going to be an ugly day for me tomorrow.
the numbers for the Q2 quarter were actually very strong relative to the forecast, but pushing games back destroyed the forecasts. the q4 forecast is what really killed the stock.
i think it will bounce back pretty quick. the drop in the forecast was not due to poor performance, but just titles being pushed back.
very ugly in after hours, but i am expecting that shorts will be covering and that it will trade back up a little tomorrow. i think they threw out very low-ball estimates and now can recover. keep in mind that they always underestimate revenues and then over-deliver.
i agree with your on the fence philosophy. paradise bay is successful, but not the huge break-out title that would drive the stock past the current formation. the market saw that it stalled a day ago. so it all comes down to earnings. i see:
- revenues and eps should probably be in the guidance range (although maybe lower end) and i think the market would react favorably to any number within guidance.
- forward guidance will be what makes the stock move up or down. if they raise forward guidance, i believe the stock will begin the short squeeze. if guidance is not moved, it might just stay in the trading range. if guidance is lowered, we probably fall.
- the other big issue will be what they say about PB. i'm pretty sure they will say it is a success relative to expectations, but not sure if they will say that say whether they anticipate this is a title that grows over time or has alot more upside to it. that commentary might be critical to the perception of PB. if PB stays at current levels, it is a solid title, but not the dagger in the heart of the shorts.
- the other issue is what they say about other titles launching this year-
just speculation here. i don't expect PB to reach the levels of candy crush at its peak, but maybe it can reach the current level of revenues as candy crush has declined.
take a look at the charts for many of the international markets. paradise bay is doing stellar in europe and real good in the US for just a few days in, but look also at china and japan and thailand and vietnam. paradise bay is moving up the charts rapidly in asian markets where candy crush and css are not really that strong. could paradise bay be bigger than candy crush globally? we will have to wait and see, but for 3-4 days in to launch, the monetization is looking to be a global phenomenon. i wonder if king has simply gained alot better ability to launch in more international markets, or if it is the game that is more appealing.
if PB can actually be as large as candy crush in global revenues at some point, it crushes the notion that KING is a one-hit wonder and revenues are destined to fall. hard to justify a p/e of 8 without the one-hit wonder label.
zynga's chief success is in casino games. this category is very robust but is currently dominated by less quality publishers. what if a better competitor (EA or King) enters this market? Does Zynga compete well against them? DOT looks like a great title, but E&A is not doing that great. Words with Friends crumbled due to pressure from competitors.
to me zynga is DOT and casino games. i think they might get more competition in the casino games area in the coming year.
just my guess, but i think the weekend is going to help to convince the market that PB is for real. i think that the market is inaccurately comparing the launch of PB to CCSS, which of course is totally different. PB is a new game, takes longer to monetize and i believe king is rolling out marketing a bit slower, since there are alot of balance issues with a game like this. let's see where we are on monday.
thanks for caring. yes, i have gotten carried away with king. no doubt. and i definitely spend too much time venting on the boards. but my family relationships are real good, i spend alot of time with them. i need to employ better money management principles and get less attached to stocks, I've generally been pretty good at buying, but poor at selling at the right time.
but your kind words are a good reminder that the people i vent at on the boards are people as well, and deserve a bit more respect. so thanks! i will keep your words in mind.
KING got hammered today - why? there is a big hedge fund that owns alot of shares and decided to take out all the stop loss orders. what happens next? the stock moves up fast because the weak hands are cleared. why? king is soft launching Paradise bay and the game is a winner. it has reached the top 30-60 grossing in a variety of test markets WITHOUT MARKETING SUPPORT. compare the grossing to the downloads. this game is grossing well even before it gets a big push for downloads. and king is THE KING of getting downloads. the other reason king will explode to the upside is because a short squeeze is coming. only about 40 million shares in the float, with 20 million shares short. and a hedge fund bought heavily at 13 range and is now going to burn those shorts. paradise bay will be a top 5 title and might even overtake candy crush in terms of grossing ranks (not players).
oh, and you get all this great news for a p/e of under 9. that is not a typo. 9 the price target on king is 45 a share by february. 3X your money. zynga is fine as a company, but king is a great stock to own NOW.
i hope you rode through it and bought a little more. i just didnt have the guts to double down, but bought a little more.
in test markets, the game is doing great.
- sweden the game is at the #32 position in grossing despite the fact that it is not even in the top 100 downloads. king can easily get it to the #1 download position once they market it.
- new zealand the game is at #44 despite the fact that it is not in top 100 downloads
- australia #60
- ireland #37
- vietnam #27 after a few days of downloads
all these chart positions are WITHOUT marketing support. this is 100% intentional. the new version rolled out on the 3rd and they need to ramp this gradually so there are not problems. my guess is they have a full launch advertising campaign already booked and it starts in 2 weeks max.
today was the day to take out the stops and steal from the suckers. the coming weeks are the time to squeeze all the shorts hard.
that was traders clearing out the suckers before they take it up. they spread a rumor that paradise bay is a failure because king is launching it slow, with no marketing to get the kinks out. they might have even hired hackers to crash the game servers a bit. but the game is doing fabulously in test markets with no marketing. as soon as they push the marketing, it is going into the top 10 titles and maybe even the top 5. the upside is going to be truly amazing. hold tight or buy more
what group of traders do you belong to hard_luck_investor? you guys are magnificent at what you do! that was a beautiful trade you executed. you must have someone spreading the rumor that paradise bay is a huge failure, right? did you have hackers taking the servers down as well? i am sorry for ever insulting you. you are THE MAN. please give me some other notice of what you guys are doing. i'm sure you are all heavily long king now, right? i did pick up shares cheaper, but didnt have the guts to double down, the losses were just so steep i could only grab another 25%, but thanks for the cheap shares!
no this was some traders taking out ALL the stop losses and fearful sellers. they spread the rumor that Paradise Bay is a big failure, when the truth is that King is slowly launching it, with no marketing support and once they add marketing support it is going to fly to the top of the charts. this was a way to sucker punch the stupid and fearful. we will be back at 16 very soon. buy more if you can.