my belief is that this quarter will be exactly like the report in late jan. the stock will NOT pop the following day or will pop a little and then trade down/sideways for a day or two. then the apple buyback will kick in and a couple more days it will be headed higher and taking out any resistance levels. the stock will move to 140 and then after a little resistance, move up to 150 range. just my guess, but i think we dont pop right away. apple is so big it is hard to move it that fast.
love the enthusiasm, but dont set your goals so high. apple is cheap even if it only earns 11.00 a share in 2016
apple doesnt need a huge new product. they need to fix the ipad sales by introducing a larger ipad and keyboard options. but mostly they just need to sell alot more cellphones. as long as the iphone momentum stays strong the stock is headed higher.
apple tv will be a nice catalyst and i think is more likely to succeed quickly than the watch.
can you share the calculation of that? is that the max pain calculation? where do you get that calculation? i'm starting to develop a trading strategy and need to get much more immersed
my family has been waiting to ungrade. this september we will make the upgrade. my wife will probably also buy me the apple watch for christmas, or i will wait for the next version, but within another year, the health apps for the apple watch will start to demonstrate that wearable tech is the future. it is just going to take a while to get moving.
i forgot to mention that you need to deduct the amount of put options in the money from the call options, but on apple there are alot more calls than puts. still, my point that options writers would be willing to stop a big rally for a few million dollars is valid. actually, these same call writers probably have written calls across multiple expiration periods and so the value of knee-capping rallies might extend across multiple time horizons.
i need to develop an algorithm that looks at the interplay of this information. might be a good way to lock an edge that delivers a percent or more of risk free return across multiple transactions. i will let the board know if i ever figure this out, so we can collectively steal money from the options writers.
understood, but that wont happen today. probably a move up towards end of day toward 130, but the morning selling prevented a big run up over the day.
what would the cost be to stop a morning rally in apple? the stock got pummelled on rapid-fire selling that stopped any big rally, but that could be accomplished with just a few million shares. if you lose a buck on a few million shares versus losing a buck or more on options that control 12 million shares you would come out ahead. actually, when you look at the call options expiring today there are about 330,000 in the money call options controlling 33 million shares and another 130,000 options at 130. so the incentive for call options writers is not only the amount of options that expire worthless, but also the amount of premium that is paid out on each of those in-the-money options. there is every reason to believe options writers are involved in price management on expirations day.
options writers cant hold down a stock for days on end or even a full day, but they just needed to squelch the morning run so apple could be guided to stay under 130.
there is a decent amount of options sitting at 133 next week, but that will probably not be a price that can be defended. the next big options date in august has alot of options at 130, 135 and 140, but then not much until 155. my guess is that the stock runs to 140 quite easily after earnings and then once it moves past 140, it can move up to 150, but will stay well short of 155 at the August options expiration.
it will probably be more about forward guidance. next quarter includes the sell in of the next version of the iphone, so the market will be watching that carefully. i agree that apple's share price is crazy low. but if you are a long term investor, who cares?, the stock will respond to the upside soon.
there is a huge block of calls at 130 strike price that needs to expire worthless. if apple had rallied strong this morning on the back of google's earnings beat, the stock could have soared past 130. the options writers could not allow this, so they hammered the stock this morning. but there are too many buyers, so the stock is up today, but the options writers will probably be able to keep it just under 130 to make those options expire worthless. i bought more and punished the options writers, but missed my play on buying call options which could have doubled - just couldnt get a decision on duration. i will punish those darn options writers another day. going to have fun creating a strategy to profit from this on a more consistent basis.
yes, i thought it was 48 hours after earnings announcement that they can start buying. i think that it is 4-5 weeks before earnings that they have to stop buying. apple seems to run up better during these buyback periods.
those are the big options writers, not short sellers
options writers have a big interest in keeping from exploding today. apple is being pulled down by the djia today as well
the buying pressure will be much more once we clear to new highs and the apple buyback starts again (48 hours after earnings).
the options thugs are working overtime today. great time to buy more and punish them.