you've been telling people to sell since 70, who is the idiot???
temporary dip here might last until the watch is announced. since there is no run-up to the watch, there wont be any "sell the news" afterwards.
the reports on apple blowing out sales in china should lead to upside in the stock. but the stock might not pick up real momentum until we get close to earnings or maybe even after earnings. it never ceases to amaze me that wall street does not properly anticipate the signs of a major earnings beat ahead of the actual report. seems like wall street is always being surprised by the obvious.
the wall street thieves had to push apple down so they could have options expire worthless. i really wish the cfo of apple would start to use the stock buyback money on fridays and blow out these call writers. if they burned the writers on a number of occasions, those writers would stop implementing these strategies.
and probably run by a crime group that is using it for financial gain by selling the stock. once the store comes back things will turn around. our government needs to start actually caring about the security and reliability of the internet. it is simply too vital to allow a bunch of hackers to run rampant.
it is the options writers that kill the volume and hold price down so they can have options expire worthless. but even the options writers could not kill the 125s yesterday. now they need to try to kill the 130s next friday. after that, apple can rise to 140. this company is on fire, but the market still makes apple "prove itself" while the street gives companies like amazon a pass to earn no money. savvy investors will profit from this anomaly.
there might be some bashers who feel that the watch underwhelms. if that happens, buy the stock. the watch is like a seed. not very impressive at the start, but it will grow into a massive tree. but apple has so many other big opportunities like TV and payment and tablets and computers, that the watch is irrelevant to the success of apple. any downside on monday is a buying opportunity. take it.
I would add a few more
- new line of macs. they need a full lineup of enterprise solutions, including mac and ipad that can go up against milcrosoft. need to really focus on the value equation for enterprises and individuals. when you add up the true cost of ownership (security software, operating system upgrade charges, office suite) a mac is actually much more affordable.
- applePay - need to get higher penetration at retailers within the first year to keep the ball rolling
- iphone 7 instead of just iphone 6+ - with haptic touch and new camera, it might be yet another big upgrade
- video gaming at home - apple TV will be the platform that expands the home game market beyond the "core" gamer demographic
according to TB ameritrade apple is by far the largest holding of individual investors, way out of proportion to the overall size of the company. apple has done very well for these individuals and taught them that they can do better investing on their own that going through a broker/money manager. this takes money out of wall street's pocket. they hate apple and would love to see the company do poorly, but alas, apple keeps making ordinary investors rich. i dont ever plan to use a traditional broker or money manager.
that is what wall street will do to you. another month to the apple TV launch. i give it another 2 weeks before the news stories hit. by that time all the weak holders of apple are gone, the company has pulled lots more shares out of circulation and we head up fast.
at the investor conference last week the CFO stated that MUP would be up quarter to quarter - go listen to the feed online for yourself. also from the last quarter financial release they stated that the conversion to king gold bars happened in Q3 and into Q4. since this conversion to gold bars increases the monthly average bookings per payer. it will be slightly higher next quarter, since Q4 still had some non-gold bar activity and Q1 of this year will be all gold bar purchases.
here are my numbers:
8.6 million MUPs (3% quarter to quarter increase, my rationale is that the CFO needed to be running at least a couple percentage points higher in order to make that statement prior to the quarter end, otherwise, she would have said it would be flat MUPs or )
$24.5 MGABPPU (3.5% increase, which is much smaller than the 12% quarter to quarter increase between q3 and q4. this assumes that most of the conversion to gold bars was already complete in q3, so the increase quarter to quarter is much smaller. Note: From Q4 2013 to Q1 2014 the MGABPPU increased from 17.32 to 18.02, so I am assuming there is no negative quarter to quarter seasonality impact from Q4 to Q1, and could even be a positive impact on MGABPPU
= $625.65million gross bookings - which will handily beat the $575 - 600 million range given by King at last earnings call.
This whole investing thesis is premised on the comment by the CFO that MUPS would be sequentially higher. No CFO is ever going to make that statement at an investor conference in mid-March and then have it not be true when they announce earnings. King's data-intensive approach and a lack of any launching titles in the quarter GUARANTEES that the CFO could easily predict this number 20 days from end of quarter.
I think that analysts are underestimating the revenues of Soda Saga and also the revenues from Candy Crush Saga on the Tencent platform.
thanks for the technical info. the reason i have gotten heavily into king over the past weeks is that i love the economics of the mobile game platform. i used to work in marketing of console games and never really liked the economics of console games. very high production costs, almost like movies, a limited demographic of intense hard-core gamers would make or break a game. very little participation in console gaming by many demographics. now the mobile phone and tablets have cracked that small demographic wide open and king has exploited a demographic (women) that only marginally participated in video games in the past. i think this untapped demographic is as important as any other unique talent of king.
i also love what i hear about the game development process of king, because it is a repeatable process that continually tests gameplay and adjusts it to the characteristics that are addictive and profitable. the biggest problem with creative development is when companies allow producers to spend huge sums of money, with little to no testing of whether the game is actually addictive. i would much rather put my money down on a proven process than betting it on the creative talents of someone who is a "guru". i have seen plenty of developers who got lucky with a big hit game and every game they made after that sucked. a fully integrated testing process holds developers accountable to real-world results during the whole game development process.
i also know from industry experience that when a company is financially able to push back launch dates, that is a good thing. king only launches a game when it is good.
i like to look for inflection points in companies. and i think king is coming up on an inflection point where they really stabilize MUPs from existing games and then each new game can add incremental revenue. with an 8 p/e, the upside is huge.
all the doubters are eating humble pie. the options writer need to try to keep it under 130 for next friday. after that, the stock will rocket to 140 - 150 after earnings. apple is poised for enormous upside.
expectations for the watch to disappoint are high, so after that is done, the next day will see a return to focus on current quarter earnings. UBS predicting 66M units, which would beat apple's guidance by a mile.
they have to keep it down for the next week to crush the options at 130. they failed to crush the 125s today and might fail at the 130's next week. after that we head to 140's
once again, apple has got it figured out. the watch is going to take some months to finally gel. the app makers need some time adjusting their apps so they are very useful and run without glitches. so there will be some watch lovers and some haters for a while. but give this thing another 4 months and some of those wrinkles get ironed out. some cool apps start to rise to the top and a portion of the population starts to love the watches. not everyone, but a large enough portion of people to make it important. this is the snowball effect that starts with a minority and grows into a movement. the tipping point is in 2016, when apple introduces a 2nd generation device with swappable batteries and the apps have evolved to excellence, and then in another 3 years, the device becomes untethered from the phone and you can receive and send calls without carrying around the phone. at that point, the cellphone splits into 2 devices, a "watch" and a tablet. the watch is always there, the tablet is for surfing the internet for deeper info.
apple is inventing the future and some people just cant see it yet. that is their loss.
you must be the worst timer ever! the stock has risen more than 60% in the past year. getting out now would be your next big mistake. this is about options expiration and the cycles of apple. next week it can begin to gain traction and then big upside on earnings report. if you want to trade in and out of apple, then learn how the options writers trade the stock and profit from the cycles.