apple will go up because the weak hands got flushed out and some of the dividend -focused crowd is now out of the stock. it only goes down in the market tanks. we also have options expiration behind us. we will hit 134 again next week, but not sure whether we move through that easily or it takes some time.
i disagree with this. i think that much of the undervaluation is a result of apple's concentration in iphone sales. the upcoming year is going to potentially change that with revenues from apps, apple pay, apple watch, new larger ipads and the most important, a whole new appleTV with monthly subscription fees and gaming app revenues. once the street realizes that apple's ecosystem is deeper than 1 device, the p/e will rise to reflect a higher value. but as usual, apple will need to prove this to the street, rather than being given credit ahead of the results like amazon, facebook, etc
i believe the estimates for apple going into 2016 are going to get raised even more each quarter. my big drivers are:
- iphone 7 with haptic and new camera and possibly new scratch-proof screen (instead of mere 6+)
- apple TV = netflix + XBOX means large recurring digital profit stream
- larger iPad plus optional keyboards
- apple watch becomes hit holiday gift
these will drive increases in FY2016 estimates. at least $12 a share by the time apple grows all these areas. and the p/e rises to 15 (after cash), so about $200 a share by a couple weeks after jan earnings report.
according to TB ameritrade apple is by far the largest holding of individual investors, way out of proportion to the overall size of the company. apple has done very well for these individuals and taught them that they can do better investing on their own that going through a broker/money manager. this takes money out of wall street's pocket. they hate apple and would love to see the company do poorly, but alas, apple keeps making ordinary investors rich. i dont ever plan to use a traditional broker or money manager.
king seems to be getting lumped in with the social media stocks and is taking a beating as a result. facebook, twitter, linkedin, yelp, angies list have all gotten beat up after annoucing earnings and so the sector is taking it on the chin. king gets thrown in with the social media stocks for some reason, although the business is quite different. at least this is setting up low expectations where an upside beat means good upside. nice opportunity to double down closer to earnings.
the coming apple TV is going to have streaming media plus interactive gaming. this is going to be a game changer. the news stories will start to pour in soon and the stock will get hyped ahead of WWDC.
because individual investors make so much money on this company and as a result, we dont use the "professionals" to manage our money. they cant generate much fee revenue from us. so they try to keep it down. the p/e is ridiculously low.
gluu mobile reported that game developers are being required to upgrade their software so it is compatible with larger screen devices - they said it appears to be home devices. imagine all those mobile phone games being accessible to appleTV users right upon launch? that is the tough thing about launching a game console, getting enough software. but apple will have boatloads of game content from day one.
the whole point of soft launches in test markets is to fine-tune the game, not grow a user base. as a matter of fact, i think they dont want to grow users until they have both the stickiness and monetization figured out. so i dont think we can really draw any conclusions until the game launches. i did read some online reviews and overall, seems like everyone thinks the game looks great and is fun, although there appear to be some updates that had glitches.
agree that patience is a necesary ingredient with king right now. the lack of new games is just painiful
dont be the fool who sold right before it explodes to the upside again. this is just the shake-out. wall street loves to do this, shake you out hard and get you to sell and then all the news stories about the new apple TV will start hitting the media and the stock will start cruising to new highs. apple has a great year coming up
- appleTV = netflix and XBOX = recuuring revenue streams
- apple Watch = big holiday gift
- apple Pay = hits critical mass
- iphone 7 = another big upgrade
- iPad = larger and more productivity, including optional keyboards
- keeps beating estimates and FY16 is going to hit $11 a share - making apple the cheapest stock around
no, they have big new products coming. this is the year of the iPad, apple TV, apple Watch and iphone 7. all big hits and the stock moves up rapidly. just shaking out the fools right now.
we have the developer conference where the apple TV gets announced coming up. just give it another week and a half and watch the stock fly. the stories on apple TV will start to pump the stock before the actual event. but they have to shake you out first.
they will take all they can get at this price. keep feeding them more shares to take off the market. let's clear out all the weak minds and dividend investors, so the stock can really get moving forward.
that is what wall street will do to you. another month to the apple TV launch. i give it another 2 weeks before the news stories hit. by that time all the weak holders of apple are gone, the company has pulled lots more shares out of circulation and we head up fast.
good job. i will start to watch your thoughtful posts more closely. the next big catalyst for apple is the developer conference on june 8 when they announce new apple tv. nice revenue streams from this device. apple tv = netflix plux XBox. the inclusion of digital gaming was alluded to on gluu mobile conference call.
apple confirmed that there is an "applebot" that is crawling the web. this is the first sign that apple will be bringing its search in-house at some point in the future. the most profitable traffic on the web is on apple devices. companies will immediately launch campaigns on an apple search platform and would achieve high ROI, which means high cost per click for apple. it would likely be at least 1-2 years away, but just like maps, apple will bring this in-house. anyone who predicts there is no growth left in apple is a fool.
is this the same smart money that said apple was doomed when it was at half the current price? real smart money. those wall street hedge fund guys have been underperforming the market for years now. how smart is that?
the introduction of the iphone 6 and iphone 7 taught apple that when they really make big changes to their products, sales fly. watch them do the same for ipad and apple TV this year, along with an iphone 7 that has forceTouch, sapphire screen and maybe in even more size variations.
apple only has 20% of the overall smartphone market and each year more people switch from android to ios. so in a year from now it is 25% global share, then 30%, etc. etc.
apple TV = netflix + XBox/Playstation. apple is pushing all mobile game developers to ungrade sofware so it works on larger screens, which is the prelude to an apple tv device that is an interactive gaming platform. along with subscription revenues for media. this is the big new revenue driver the company needs.
nice higher volume day today. the market was simply shaking out anyone who was afraid of the duration of the bull market. apple needs to soar before a real crash in the market. once we hit the giddy heights of 170-190 a share, then i might be inclined to agree that the stock could fall, but not at 124 a share after blowout earnings.