i really doubt customers are switching. invisishield is still the best brand in the space and they have done a good job of creating multiple price points. are you claiming clearplex kicked zagg completely out of the Canada stores?
it is the ecosystem driving the company. by next year i will be monitoring my health with the watch, paying my bills with the watch, i bought a mac recently, will be upgrading to the 6 next year when contracts for family expire, buying a new ipad as soon as they come out with one that operates more like a mac. the transition from pc era will be complete. then apple just needs to create a device that is the central hub for your home - a cable box/wi-fi/interactive gaming system that has programming to replace netflix and tivo and xbox. game over. apple dominates all the households with discretionary income. period, end of story. android dominates the ghettos and third world countries, but that is not a lucrative place to be. apple then marries Siri to new search technology and installs it as the default on apple devices. and the only thing stopping them will be anti-monopoly laws. icahn is right 200 a share in a little over a year.
agree. the numbers i have run are even bigger than 70 million.
assuming apple is supply constrained through christmas (they sell all they can make)
70 days x 800K per day of 6 = 56million plus 20 post-christmas days at 300K = 62 million for the 6
90 days x 200K for the 6 Plus = 18 million (my assumption is that they are still supply constrained on the Plus through the whole quarter
Where do i get 800K a day? Foxconn's founder was interviewed prior to launch and said that 400K was the production number they had reached, along with 150K 6 Plus. Pegatron was scheduled to match the 400K on the 6, but with no 6Plus production. After the launch the Foxconn founder said they were working to expand production, so i figure they increased the 6 Plus production by 50K a day and conservatively estimate the 6 production at the original 800K a day (400K + 400K)
Add in the following estimates for older phones:
7 million for 5S
3 million for 5C
4 million for 4S.
Those are from an analyst.
Total is 94 million. Let's deduct 6 million units in Apple's own sales channel (unlikely, but let's be conservative).
Even if my estimate is high, I think it demonstrates that if Apple is able to sell all the units it can make until Christmas, they will beat the 70 million number. The market already sees this and estimate revisions will keep pouring in. Then the earnings beat and increase on forward estimates for first quarter of 2015. My price target is 135 prior to earnings and 145-150 a couple weeks after earnings, or by apple watch launch at the latest.
i agree. while apple excels in some areas, it is lame in others. i also want cook to create a tablet with a keyboard, multi-tasking, etc that i can use as a portable laptop (light). cook needs to move forward faster!
the targets are low 130's before earnings release and touching up close to 150 within 3 weeks after earnings. once we hit 150 I will re-evaluate 2016 prospects, although i know the apple watch will sell very well. the big question is whether apple has a follow-up hit to the 6's. they need a follow-up hit to push the stock price beyond 150 to 200. or they need to launch something new that is big, like the apple TV.
costco and walmart most likely sell the iphone as a loss leader, to generate traffic that will buy products with margin. so costco/walmart are effectively paying apple to sell their products - smart move by apple. this only happens when a product is hot, which is the case with apple.
i didnt like the way the charts were shaping up from the 21st and got out, but i dont have the guts to short sell a stock like king. i've also been watching those charts and I think the market is reacting appropriately at this time. we need to see soda saga showing that it could be nearly as big as the original, but that does not appear to be happening. i think that there is bad news at the next conference call and the stock will be back down at either 11 or 14 support by that time. i was really hoping that they could demonstrate that they could repeat these hits, because the stock would have been at 22 by now if that were happening, but i guess lightning only strikes once.
nope. i bought at high 15's rode to mid 16's and exited. i am interested in king because the valuation is so much in question, which means there is a good deal of volatility in the price. i only rarely short stocks - just too dangerous. but i also dont like losing money, so i only invest when all stars are aligned for upside and that does not seem to be the case with king right now. i see candy crush saga and soda saga moving down the app charts again today. other king games also seem to be moving down the charts. in my opinion the stock price is reacting to the app charts in a perfectly reasonable way. the initial enthusiasm for the game seemed good, but not it looks like soda saga is only stealing players from the original, not going to be the blockbuster hit the original was. i dont think posting on yahoo chatboards moves stock prices, i just like to see if anyone has an intelligent opposite opinion.
investors in this company are so sensitive to any negative comments. as the biggest market, the US is the best indicator of how this will play out.we will see how it trends over the coming weeks, but the market is telling you that the original spike on launch is reversing.
so if you have a more thorough analysis, lay out it out.
insults are so mature!!
personal reasons is the excuse they always use as a facade. chairman of the board is not a position that requires daily work, so this is the sort of transition that companies announce with some leadtime.
every time i have seen these immediate board changes it is a sign of something bad coming up. this could be the exception, but smart risk management considers every data point, not just the ones that align with your investment positions.
dont like what i see today in app annie charts. candy crush saga has moved below game of war and soda saga seems to be having problems moving up further. just glad i got out of this stock
is not a good sign. this was an ouster of the chairman (immediate) and usually this means some type of trouble. i would not be comfortable buying king at the current valuation based on this event. looking to see it move down to mid 14 range as the downward trend and this bad news combine to push it much lower. as chairman of the compensation committee this seems like it might be about overly rich compensation of insiders, at the expense of shareholders. i know that with several other companies i have followed, changes in the board meant bad things ahead.
google now says about 50% of searches are on mobile devices. the iphone and ipad dominate in the US, the biggest market for ads. if yahoo or microsoft negotiate to take that away, it will really sting. p/e of google is much higher than apple, yet future growth looks to be strong at apple, but not at google.
the p/e ratio on apple is between 12-16 times forward earnings, depending upon where you put forward earnings. as stated below, your comparison of asset value to revenue stream is not a valid one. and yes, this is the future of the world, where certain companies will generate massive worldwide revenues that are enormous in relation to the economy. this is the winner take all society (not saying it is good, but it just IS).
all those analysts that have not raised their estimates have to play catch-up. here are my projections:
iphone 6 production of 800K per day for 70 days, then 400K for 20 days after christmas = 64 million
iphone 6 Plus production of 180K a day for 90 days = 16 million (demand is unfilled by end of year)
iphone 5S at 6 million
iphone 5c 2 million
iphone 4s 4 million
less 6 million units of inventory apple owns at end of year.
total of 86 million units. analysts have their projects down at between 60-70 million.
here is my assumption:
apple can sell every unit they make up until christmas, this seems to be quite likely. it is possible that lead-times will lengthen as the holiday rush starts. so just by watching the lead times prior to christmas, we can tell if apple is still selling every unit they make.
regarding supply. the founder of Foxconn stated 400K units a day prior to launch and pegatron was also scheduled to make the same amount per day. that same founder said 150K units of 6Plus at launch and they were ramping up volumes, so 180K a day is conservative. the 5S 5C and 4s numbers are from an analyst.
gross margin will beat expectations due to consumers trading up to higher memory - 40% gross margin versus analysts at 38%
this will be a massive blowout to the upside, but it is the reason apple stock has been moving up so fast. smart money knows that this is the blowout quarter for apple and stock will be 150+ after earnings are released. pre-earnings release stock is in the low 130's.
hold onto those apple shares. dont let the greedy wall street thieves rob you of your shares.
just looking at the stock charts, i think it has to move down to that region. looking at the app annie charts, i see that on the ipad candy crush saga moved down a position and soda saga is not moving up past Game of War. in order to see a run up again in king i think we need to see soda maintain a solid download position and within another 2 weeks it needs to move up to the #2 position in grossing. the other issue is how well the original candy crush holds up over the next month. by the next earnings call, this stock could be worth 11 or 22, just depends on how well king games are able to hold positions on the charts. i consider king a trading buy at specific prices, not a long-term play at this point.
i havent wasted my time on this board in a while. looks like the sellers have created a whole bunch of new IDs for their bashers to use. just keep your eyes focused on the goal line - january earnings. if apple trades any lower it just gives the company an opportunity to buy back more shares at a price that will look small compared to the future.
plenty of buyers. the stock came off of a big price spike today and that's all. just a trading strategy in play. apple stock is still not expensive.
the only difficult segment for apple are ipads. tim cook needs to WAKE UP and create new tablets with larger screens, keyboards, etc. that can replace a PC. apple gives their version of word and excel away for free and consumers would switch rapidly to apple if apple had the right computing devices at the right prices. mac sales are strong, but would be much stronger if apple had an effective strategy in place. tim cook was 2 years late with the bigger iphones. he needs to WAKE UP and get a real tablet/PC strategy in place. microsoft is vulnerable right now, but apple needs to take advantage of the opportunity now.
going to 140 by the time they release earnings in january. the big funds will be net buyers of apple for the coming month as they chase performance, they either buy apple or get left behind. i expect apple to consolidate under 120 a little while, maybe a week, and then move strongly up into the 130 range.