It is a emergency thing because it's new. The media feasts on this stuff and that id good and bad. Pandemic? Well, if it covers an entire country (pandemic is based on is it spread across a country) then it is a pandemic but that does not mean 10% of people get it. It does mean an entire population is exposed to the risk.
Zika to what i know (I did not care to study it much) is not curable. It may run its course and leave no damage or maybe once infected that person should never have children. If it resides forever and we have no way to eliminate for the host then that host is forever capable of transferring it to the child (me assumes).
Therefore, testing is important but non-curable puts the energy of agencies on mitigation of the disease. However, if it proves to be easily transmitted from person to person testing then becomes an equally weighted strategy.
The more news about human to human transfer the more testing will become demanded.
The Nutshell: Chembio needs to balance the irons in the fire and make sure Malaria, Malaria multiplex including other diseases and Cancer are being tended to first. They have been chasing forever and not much came out of chasing.
They can come out with something quickly. But, Zika is small compared to some of the irons in the fire. It's the new fad. Look what happened to HIV. Fad now swept under a rug. I don;t care if they chase Zika or not. I want focus on cancer and malaria. Also, some focus on making a relationship with WHO, something that i believe takes money in terms of hiring someone with clout. However, if Malaria proves itself, I think that will give them clout du to the organization behind them. That would be a huge success.
I don;t chase fads. That's most likely why i never was asked to model for GQ. Always a blue jeans guy with messy hair.
Only one sentence is about the reality today and it's general "we continue to have a strong relationship". He refused to answer any questions about anticipated sales in the future. Though, he is good at not making pumping statements and i like that.
Tons of tiny hands escaping today; most of the afternoon was exchanges of 100 shares and some 400 shares. nothing above that. I hate tiny weak hands.
He was positive in general because of the grant money. He was OK about Brazil but he was talking about the year if I remember correctly.
Lots of 100 little traders taking their $23 earnings or running today.
What, 21 shares maybe traded on a low cost platform with terrible execution.
I may try to make the earnings call and ask about the relationship with Brazil. Something has happened to the relationship and it is very important. I hope John didn't break it.
I don’t know why it is such a big deal to you. We all expect they could easily make a Zika test. Maybe not but they seem to be able to test for almost all such infections.
It's really about money and return: they have significant irons in the fire and Cancer and Malaria are far greater potential than Zika. If the effects of Zika are not curable or the effects are long lasting (genetic) then fighting the mosquitoes will be the priority not testing. That already seems to be the case.
Also, as you said and I’ve said, WHO ‘s decisions appear bought and in the least Chembio needs to hire someone who has clout with WHO and other agencies. That would be better money spend than the sales force.
Microsoft is changing Windows 10 to a "Recommended Update". Most default Windows installations will install all "recommended updates".
if you do not want MS Windows 10 to automatically load to your computer, go to Control Panel, System and Security (on Win 7 anyway), Windows Update, Change Settings.
There should be a drop down that allows you to select "Check for updates but allow me to choose whether to download and install them".
Ok, back to the regular programming.
Yes Chembio should be able to do a Zika test and get it ready to test within 180 days or less.
WHO has treated Chembio as a disease; they put Chembio through more hoops than the big companies.
Under Sperzel the relationship with Brazil has degenerated terribly.
I believe Zika is a positive also but I am posting what seems to be reality. I own significant shares. I am a believer but nothing seems to come to fruition. The carrot is always two years out.
My investments are in 401(k) so I do not care. I think it is a low chance that Chembio gets bought. Not big enough of a speck for a major company. When their first big deal hits the stock should jump making it a tougher buy..maybe.
Looking at the Alere deal it seems Chembio would draw a minimum of $7.50 and upward of $9.90 a share. Since at $9.90 that's only $84M (no debt to absorb so I assume all of the cash goes to stockholders).
I think $7.50 would get voted down. $9 I think is reasonable (still low to me).
So, this little speck could be easily purchased and viewing it as a technology company rather than a testing company the multiple is not high.
It's not about the size of Chembio. It would be all about their technology. Yes, potential revenue in the existing pipeline is a consideration but potential for numerous new applications would be a driver.
If the cancer test comes through and it sets a new POC standard Chembio would get noticed. It is much easier to buy a "speck" at a high valuation and much easier for a speck to get a high valuation. Go little speck go!
It's a news fad. Yes, it is something to chase. However, they need to balance, So many irons in the fire. The only deliverable in a long time that produced something was the HIV/Syph in Mexico and that will now be a nice annuity but no growth.
I assume they can produce a Zika test in 90 days or less. Then testing..Tic..Toc..Tic..Toc.
I'm all for it. but how much is it really worth? The Malaria test has worth. Ebola? Zika?
I don't know. How about a cancer test: Bang!
Huge article on the front page today. The thing is, testing is needed but all that can do it to inform someone they should not have children for what, two years? That is a hard thing to do in Catholic countries with lack of birth control.
Chembio has quickly made tests for mosquito borne illnesses. Even Malaria despite its five or more genetic mutations. While lateral flow too can achieve that DPP tends to be a higher resolution test meaning it can sense the illness at lower counts in the blood (earlier in infection).
Then there is multiplex. In the USA they treat a multiplex as an entirely new test, meaning, if say HIV and Syph. are approved as separate tests a combination test unit must go through the same approval process (I got that from an inquiry to Chembio).
But, WHO and other world health organizations have strict goals as to testing and performance but are more flexible in the approval process. They can fast track something and I suspect would have a fast track to test a multiplex. Lateral flow has failed to do multiplex with good results.
Then there is the cassette. DPP and lateral flow cassette tests should be preferred by WHO due to less liquids, less prone to human error and longer shelf life. There are many many competitors that can make cassette style tests but only one DPP.
Chembio needs to learn how to gain clout in the right way. Unfortunately, the best is to have one test approved that stands above the rest. Tick tock, that' takes time. I hope that they are testing a stand alone malaria test as well as a multiplex. Multiplex tests take significantly more samples and time. Getting a malaria test approved that is the best and approved soon would be the thing to increase the size of the Chembio blip on the radars.
Yes, I still believe that despite three years of saying the same thing ☺
The candlestick appears to have worked despite the low average volume. I was tending to buy but when the chart said bottom that was confirmation.
Can you believe it's been 30 years since the Challenger blew up? Wow, it doesn't seem that long ago to me.
I am expecting a poor revenue Q4 in terms of product sales. The assumptions are that Mexico is fully stocked and now will just be in replacement mode. Something is going on with the Brazil relationship and it's not good. Maybe they need to hire Larry to intercede as he built the relationship.
I expect $1M in grant money. More possibly. That at least covers overhead so cash flow should be positive unless they have some significant internal research not covered by grants. .
Yes, I looked at the Allen foundation website. Chembio is also not the only firm with grant money for developing a test that includes Malaria. I do not remember the other names and they were unknown firms to me.
Lots of silence on Chembios part, most driven by the clients who control the news of their test. However, it could be that Q4 is going to be not so good (my feeling) and they want to bring the good with the bad. That's a good strategy. Unfortunately, their timelines on delivery have been getting longer and longer, largely because multiplex takes significantly more samples (people) thus significantly more time to gather and study the information and turn the results into quantitative numbers.
Yes, I assume Zika can be tested by DPP (MJ covered that topic).