Oh man, these guys at HZNP are really a bunch of wannabes. What is this, a business school experiment how to do a takeover? They spent around $65M to buy DEPO shares AFTER they made the offer public and the stock goes to $30. Are you kidding me? Just so they can ask for a special meeting?? Then they spend another $750k on this proxy solicitation, and who knows how much for their silly litigation? What a waste of shreholder's money. Watching this from afar, it is clear that this deal will never be consummated. In fact, they will almost certainly get a bunch of shareholder lawsuits for this. This management team needs to be fired. Walbert first so we don't have to see his stupid grinning face anymore, then Carey that moron
if you get a chance take a look at slide 12 of today's presentation (filed w SEC). Graphically shows sales potential in various scenarios. Beautiful slide. $1B product. The other interesting slide is slide 7- shows the new T label had no impact on prescription volume. This stock would be fairly valued at $40 TODAY- 9 months before approval.
Still too low. But the price targets are getting there. On the other hand, Roth is not really the most respected of sell-side firms. In other words, they are a bunch of bozos. Will be nice once the bigger firms initiate.
How many M&A transactions has he negotiated? How many times has he achieved the best outcome for shareholders?
There is a huge difference between negotiating some supplier or contract sales force deal and the balls required to negotiate a good outcome in an M&A scenario. That is the big worry here.
To launch the product themselves will be costly and require substantial additional capital to be raised. Whatever they will get upfront from a partnership will most likely not be nearly enough. My worry is that, while Mahesh is very good at developing this product, and Jerky may be good at something else, the overall leadership here, BOD etc, is weak. It is my great worry that decisions will be made that are not in the best interest of shareholders. The products are terrific. Without any doubt there are buyers out there who would pay an adequate price for the entire company. That is the best route to choose for them. An activist shareholder may be what they need.
It is absolutely irrelevant what his strengths are. The only thing that matters is shareholder value, and he works for the shareholders now. The wrong kind of partnership will destroy the stock price. The clear and unmitigated best outcome is a sale of the company. Everything else means "jerking around" the shareholders. It should not take much to find a good offer for the company at a substantial premium to today's stock price.
Bill Higuchi is a founder of Lipocine. He and his brother, Takero Higuchi, were some of the most prominent physical and pharmaceutical chemists of the last hundred years, right up there with Al Zaffaroni. You can google the "Higuchi equation" and "Higuchi constant" and will find a lot of background. You can not get a chairman (which he was) with a better scientific reputation and international respect than this man. This important fact is completely lost to investors.
Well, perhaps the FDA will include a cookbook in the label. But, if the food effect study results are similar to what we know, there will most likely be NOTHING in the label about food fat content and rather it will simply say to take it with a meal. The food effect issue really is pretty much meaningless.
The food effect study is really not much to worry about. They have already completed one in women and seen sufficient absorption with 15-19% meal fat content, and no further enhancement of absorption when fat content increased. So, with 15% or higher you get good and reproducible absorption. 15% is a low fat meal, much less than the average American diet. But, the current 16 patient open label study (testing low fat meal at 15%, standard meal at 20-35%, and 50% high fat meal) will give even more information very soon.