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Inergy, L.P. Message Board

mobettafred 12 posts  |  Last Activity: May 29, 2015 2:05 PM Member since: Aug 21, 2011
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  • JR: The only other upstream MLP that we are currently recommending is EV Energy Partners L.P. (EVEP) . This name is largely natural gas-weighted, but the company recently announced the divestiture of its Utica East Ohio midstream project for $575M in cash to Williams Partners L.P. (WPZ) . That was a very attractive price in our opinion, providing the company with a meaningful booster shot of liquidity to the balance sheet. This cash is going to allow EV Energy to pay down all its revolving debt and ultimately emerge as one of the best-positioned upstream MLPs for future A&D.
    We are getting to a point where the bid-ask spread on producing assets is settling down and is likely to find some sort of equilibrium soon. I expect the acquisition activity to pick up in H2/15 and 2016. Those companies with additional dry powder to exploit A&D opportunities are going to be able to outperform their peers. EV Energy Partners will be sitting on $650M in cash. The addition of a mature, producing asset worth $500M or more could do a lot to reshape its current asset base, diversifying it into a more balanced product split, and ultimately yielding significant accretion to distributable cash flow per unit. This should help move the company back to its original strategy, which was a traditional, steady state of distribution growth. Following the path of most of its peers, EV Energy's early February distribution cut and reduced capital spending outlook leaves the company in a healthy position currently. I would like to see it get back to a sustainable 3–4% distribution growth number, and I think that this divestiture and reinvestment process is likely the catalyst to do that.

  • vnr distrib 12 mo x .1175 = 1.41 per yr
    2000 shares lre @ .55 = 1100 shares vnr
    1100 sh vnr x 1.41 = 1551 per yr

    evep worked well with my calculations
    1/2 sh evep @ 17.50 = 8.75 which is comparable to 1 share of lre today.
    1,000 sh evep x 2.00 yr = 2,000 distrib per year & they always increased until this last time. I sold my vnr after there was no increase in distrib after the last deal. I sold half of my lre today.

    2,000 - 1,551 = 449 per year difference.

    feel free to correct me. you might prefer to use memp as an example.

  • mobettafred by mobettafred May 6, 2015 7:47 PM Flag

    When calculating in the EPS estimates for the current year from sell-side analysts, the Price to current year EPS stands at 22.09. Investors looking further ahead, will note that the Price to next year’s EPS is 349.00.

  • Reply to

    stock insights

    by mobettafred May 6, 2015 7:47 PM
    mobettafred mobettafred May 7, 2015 8:09 PM Flag

    it is the last line of an article put out by the vanguard tribune on may 6. this is the article if it will print.

    Stock Insights: EV Energy Partners, L.P. (NASDAQ:EVEP)

    Investors are watching shares of EV Energy Partners, L.P. (NASDAQ:EVEP) today as the stock opened the current trading session at 17.82 and at the time of writing the last Bid was at 17.45. In the current trading session the stock reached as high as 17.82 and dipped down to 17.30. EV Energy Partners, L.P., a NMS listed company, has a current market cap of 851.73M and on average over the past 3 months has seen 568164 shares trade hands on a daily basis.

    There are a number of brokerage firms which offer projections on earnings and future stock movement of the stock. On a consensus basis, Wall Street analysts have a short term price of 19.50 on the equity. The company’s trailing twelve month EPS is 2.58. The consensus analyst estimates according to First Call for the next quarter is 0.19. The current year EPS estimate on the stock is 0.79 and the EPS estimate for next year sits at 0.05.

    On a technical level the stock has a 50 Day Moving Average of 15.20. Based on a recent trade, this puts the equity at +14.82% away from that average. In comparing the stock’s current level to its extended history, the stock is trading -58.42% away from its 52-week high of 41.97 and +46.03% away from the stock’s low point over the past 52 weeks, which was 11.95.

    The price to earnings ratio, or the valuation ratio of a company’s current share price compared to its per-share earnings sits at 6.76. This is an important indicator as a higher ratio typically suggests that investors are expecting higher future earnings growth compared to companies in the same industry with lower price to earnings ratios. When calculating in the EPS estimates for the current year from sell-side analysts, the Price to current year EPS stands at 22.09. Investors looking further ahead, will note that the Price to next year’s EPS is 349.00.

  • Reply to

    2015-17 DCF as of Q1 2015

    by griffin.mungus May 11, 2015 3:06 PM
    mobettafred mobettafred May 12, 2015 1:31 PM Flag

    thank you for all your hard work running numbers. however, the fundamentals page at etrade makes eroc look terrible and evep pretty good. their market edge is also helpful but think it may get updated just once a week? I have learned not to buy something just because it is cheap.

  • Reply to

    2015-17 DCF as of Q1 2015

    by griffin.mungus May 11, 2015 3:06 PM
    mobettafred mobettafred May 12, 2015 4:43 PM Flag

    you can not wait and hope for management to die or you would be hoping & waiting for a lot more than eroc. I am sure they are doing the best they can as are the others however good or bad. That is why they are in charge instead of you & I.

    etrade has an excellent fundamentals page. it is well worth having an account there.

    valuation (mrq)
    eroc was not profitable in its latest fiscal year. therefore the p/e ratio is not applicable. its price to cash flow ratio would give an alternative indication of its expense relative to the o/g operations industry.
    price/earnings (ttm) -
    price/sales (ttm) 1.22x
    price/book 1.16x
    price/cash flow -

    management effectiveness (ttm)
    the return on equity for eroc shows that it is able to reinvest its earnings less efficiently than 83% of its competitors in the o/g operations industry. Typically, companies that have lower return on equity values are less attractive to investors
    ret on assets -28.60%
    ret on equity -94.67%
    ret on inves capital -32.12%

    dividend (ttm)
    dividend yield 11.48%
    payout ratio -
    annual dividend .14
    (not etrade but my 2 cents - usually when the distribution is more than covered, they will put a number in the payout ratio)

    eroc's debt to equity ratio indicates that it has been as aggressive with using debt to finance growth as compared to its peers in the o/g operations industry. The resultant effect on earnings would be as volatile as related companies.
    current ratio 3.44x
    dept/equity 0.68x
    debt/assets 0.32x

    as indicated by the operating margin 67% of eroc's peers are able to control costs & expenses better.
    operating margin -110.32%
    ebitda margin 67.99%
    net profit margin -131.80%

    growth rate
    eroc's eps growth rate is less than 72% of its peers in the o/g operations industry.
    earnings per share -81.1
    sales 51.0

    dividend -82.7

  • Reply to

    2015-17 DCF as of Q1 2015

    by griffin.mungus May 11, 2015 3:06 PM
    mobettafred mobettafred May 12, 2015 9:11 PM Flag

    There is a lot of money to be made in bullying others that your way is the only way, that you are always right - as you talk out both sides of your mouth.

  • mobettafred mobettafred May 12, 2015 1:06 PM Flag

    thanks, dixie. way to go!

  • Whiting USA Trust II (NYSE:WHZ) announced a quarterly dividend on Friday, May 8th, American Banking News reports. Shareholders of record on Wednesday, May 20th will be paid a dividend of 0.3273 per share on Monday, June 1st. This represents a $1.31 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 34.45%. The ex-dividend date is Monday, May 18th.

  • Reply to

    dakota financial - what is going on here?

    by mobettafred May 13, 2015 3:52 PM
    mobettafred mobettafred May 15, 2015 3:51 PM Flag

    looking forward to next quarter.

  • Reply to

    Why would you invest in this

    by shackletoneric May 12, 2015 2:28 PM
    mobettafred mobettafred May 29, 2015 2:05 PM Flag

    I have been placing orders all month that just missed my price until yesterday - saved a lot of money even though not as much as you did today.

  • Reply to

    MCEP CFO in bloomberg article

    by lookuphere62 May 29, 2015 1:21 PM
    mobettafred mobettafred May 29, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    good article, thanks. it pays not to be greedy - partner up.