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Merck & Co. Inc. Message Board

mofisher22 417 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 12, 2014 11:07 PM Member since: Mar 26, 2012
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  • with $4 million in revenue? This is another in the long list of biotechs, ie, DNDN, ARIA, HZNP, etc., , in which wise money dumps at the false top, leaving others to hold the bag. Any KERX holders here?

  • Amazing, what do they have in their "lock box"? I would think if anything worthwhile, big pharma would have bought long ago. Also, I suspect there is a lot of bag holders here, and may be many more on the ride back down. JMO

  • Reply to

    SNSS

    by fanelli_robert Apr 8, 2014 3:47 PM
    mofisher22 mofisher22 Apr 8, 2014 10:45 PM Flag

    thanks, Robert

  • Reply to

    Observations from a departed long,

    by mofisher22 Apr 8, 2014 9:18 PM
    mofisher22 mofisher22 Apr 8, 2014 10:37 PM Flag

    Do not buy into message board and SA pie in the sky pumpers, Do not keep riding a broken down horse, when a stock with an approved drug that was supposed to be its messiah, during a 4 month bull market for its sector, went south, it is time to wake up and smell the roses. ginny, best of luck to you, but I suggest you become a realist, instead of an idealist, I suspect it may save you money going forward, jmo

  • Have not posted here in several weeks, about 3 weeks ago, I went basically all cash, did keep ROX, NLST, and SYMX, 3 non biotech spec stocks. Was able to couple last years humongous gains with a 12 % gain for 2014. As I have thought for years, for other than conservative, big cap, dividend paying stocks, the investment in small cap stocks, especially bio techs, is no different than a casino, huge gains in a short while, then, like many people in casinos do, huge losses in a short time. Anyone using normal attributes such as product sales, potential sales, etc. is somewhat clueless in how those markets work. In most small cap drug stocks, the money is made way before any sort of approval is reached. An example, I rode MNKD up from $2 to $8 in 2013, and thankfully got out above $7. After ADCOM approval, it never even reached near the $8.79 of 2013, and now has dropped even more. SYN, a stock I bought last DEC. at $1.10, and avg. at app. $1.60, ran to $3.60 less than a month ago, and is now down about 40% off that price. Nothing has changed in their situation. But, before the max run up, they did say they were announcing results of a crucial trial I think in April. Well, I owned CYTK, which did the same thing last year. Everybody thought, well, the news must be good when they announce the results at the conference, but , guess what, people found loop holds in their results. It appears the bad news has already leaked on SYN, though many are still holding out hope for the news next month. Face it, if the news was going to be great, I imagine plenty folks in the loop would be propping the price up with buys. So, back to ATRS, if the sp was $6 way before approval, and now after approval, it is about half that, what does that tell you? /Among others, the main lesson here is do not fall in love with a stock. Like a few others here who bailed and bought HZNP, INO, SYN, RAD and a few others, the last 15 months proved bountiful. I am pleased to say I am out, GLTA longs.

  • Reply to

    SNSS

    by fanelli_robert Apr 8, 2014 3:47 PM
    mofisher22 mofisher22 Apr 8, 2014 7:48 PM Flag

    robert, I am pretty much totally in cash, I had a 20% ytd gain on app. March 20, then a week later, it was down to 12%, so I figured that would be a good year after a great year last year, am happy with a 12% yeat. However, I am still holding SYMX, NLST, and ROX, three spec stocks, still very low priced, and outside the bio tech sector. All 3 have held up well during the Nasdaq/bio tech collapse. I know you commented on them a few weeks ago, do you have any current thoughts? I feel they have very little downside, and expect at least 1, or hopefully 2 to make a nice move up, a double, triple or more this year.

  • Reply to

    Reflections

    by goutah3006 Apr 5, 2014 12:42 PM
    mofisher22 mofisher22 Apr 5, 2014 11:10 PM Flag

    long time bio investor and winner/loser. After being up 20 % ytd, in mid march, dumped all a week later at 11 % gain, thankfully, would otherwise be in red today. From my experience, the best way to make money in bios is to buy when they get sold off due to events, then gradually sell off with profits. HALO is a good example, if you look at 3 year chart, you see numerous big dips, after nice run ups. PRAN is also a good example. glta

  • It may be for the good, but I bailed on this at $2, and most other spec stocks. But, these offerings can sure beat a person down, especially if they seddenly turn red in their portfolio. Justsaw it on list of losers, glta, it does seem to have a viable future, I am just too tired to continue.

  • I was in MNKD during the big run of the first half of 2013, and made good, but sold when it started dropping to $6 range. But, with approval pretty much a done deal, I expected $10 or higher. Any thoughts?

  • Reply to

    Elon Musk on CBS ' s 60 minutes

    by albee56 Mar 30, 2014 7:14 PM
    mofisher22 mofisher22 Mar 30, 2014 11:15 PM Flag

    investor, I think what is involved here is "ptential". The fact is, the stock prices are often based on going forward, not backward. Maybe that is not sensible, but it is facts. Obviously, TSLA has shown they are a viable company. I see it much like Ford motor co. 100 years ago, but the after effects appear much different. Ford lead to the emergence of big oil, while I understood the Tesla guy to say they would provide free re fueling stations. If they can do this, and bring the price down to a reasonable one, that could destroy the big auto makers and energy companies. I am not surprised that the technology has been there for a while, but am thinking the big oil/auto has squashed it thus far. This TSLA guy is a loose cannon/free spirit that obviously has not caved in. Will be interesting.

  • mofisher22 by mofisher22 Mar 30, 2014 10:34 PM Flag

    on yahoo, it appears that insiders and intitutions own over 100% of float. I guess that is not possible, but can someone provide info on this?

  • Reply to

    Elon Musk on CBS ' s 60 minutes

    by albee56 Mar 30, 2014 7:14 PM
    mofisher22 mofisher22 Mar 30, 2014 10:27 PM Flag

    I would appreciate some "sane " input from people versed in TSLA. I am surprised that after I requested such, 3 hours ago, after watching the show, all I have seen is a bunch of worthless posts. Is that all this board is made of? come on, give me some feed back. I have learned some basics, but contrary to many peoples opinions, I value message board input.

  • Reply to

    Elon Musk on CBS ' s 60 minutes

    by albee56 Mar 30, 2014 7:14 PM
    mofisher22 mofisher22 Mar 30, 2014 8:05 PM Flag

    Well, as some one who is very active in the stock market, but in other sectors, the 60 minute segment certainly piqued my interest. I see the sp is actually pretty close to where it was last Oct, which tells me tomorrows buyers are getting a discounted price.I was not fully aware of the magnitude of what this guy was attemting to do, but with a nice looking car that would in essence, never have to spend money on fuel, it is mind boggling. With this guys ability, and with technology increasing very fast, I imagine the big auto co.s are very concerned, as well as the pretroluem industry. Will he be allowed to succeed? If so, I see it creating a vast uphelval in our economic system, due to injury to the energy sector, oil and gas. I must say the segment sure opened my eyes. what is current thinking on TSLA sp, now and in future?

  • Reply to

    Until the Biotech Index

    by gizmo_puppy95 Mar 28, 2014 3:41 PM
    mofisher22 mofisher22 Mar 28, 2014 9:05 PM Flag

    gizmo, I noticed that the large bio ETF, I think it is IBB, actually today finished at about up 1% ytd, and had been up double figures not too long ago. Like you, I have been in similar market sector corrections, and after first buying at 1.10, then avg in at 1.70 for several thousand shares, after the upgrade, I was blinded with greed, even though it had happened numerous times in the past.Though I lost my double in SYN, I did get out at 2.90 with about a 40% gain. the bio sector , much more so than the major indexes, had given totally unrealistic gains since early Nov. Last week, on Wed and thur, it pretty well maxed out, I made$13,000 on one bio, ISR, and actually sold early. I think around that time, SYN was flying high. Based on my previous experience, I should have known to sell at least half of all bio, but instead, allowed around 1/2 of the 2014 ytd gains vanish. But, finally, after the Nov to now run, I was able to get out with a very nice nest egg. I just do not have the stomach to go thru with these huge up and down movements, and also, I do not have the portfolio size. Like with many bios, the so called binary events are not ussually as profitable as many feel they should be.Often, since they have run up huge before the event, the approval or good news is met with a dump by the folks who bought early and have huge gains. The billionaire investor who bought so many shares at $1.00, I suspect after a 200% gain in 3 months, that is 800% annualized, has already, or will very soon be finished with SYN. Those big money types are too smart to ride it up and then down. He got a gift at $1, and another at $3.50, I would be surprised if he is letting it all ride doen to 2.50. One last thing, during this correction, the major indexes have actually not participated, though they actually did not enjoy the ytd run up. But, as you alluded to, the Russian thing has not yet really impacted the markets. As often happens, it or something else could happen soon.

  • I am still in NLST and SYMX. They seem to be holding somewhat well. What is your opinion of them, especially if the spec. market turns around?

  • Both are companies who muddled along for years, then, about a year ago, started turning the corner to profitability. I have owned RAD since Dec 2012, and ROX since summer of 2013. Using yahoo, if you pull up the chart for RAD, the one year, then put in ROX to compare, you will see a very interesting similarity in their upward move over the past year. RAD actually started it move a little sooner, so I think we see ROX gaining steam, as we have already witnessed in the past 6 weeks. Does the similar movement continue into the rest of 2014? I would not bet against it.

  • Reply to

    Two questions for board, appreciate input,

    by mofisher22 Mar 20, 2014 9:16 PM
    mofisher22 mofisher22 Mar 25, 2014 8:13 PM Flag

    I know it was not ATRS board , sand I owned GALE and AMBS, so it had to be there. thanks, don.

  • Now is a triple in about 9 months, and chart says next leg up is coming. Last earnings proved the company has turned the corner and heading north. As I was when I got bashed in Feb. by naysayers at .85, who, if they had bought would have a 6 week 45% gain with more coming., some of them still here predicting doom and gloom for ROX. Why do some people love losing money? jmo

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • today, with overall market sentiment back positive, it is exploding. With the volume, I really believe todays move sticks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mofisher22 mofisher22 Mar 25, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    from what I recall from last year, they did a massive debt restructure, pushing but a lot of notes to 2018/2019 and also getting much favorable terms. Along with now turning a profit, and with lillihood of increased phar sales due to increased use of generica along with obamacare, additional income due to format changes of stores to wellness centers and larget sf leading to increased front end revs. Most people have liked what they have seen, hence a nice increase in sp over past year. Also, plenty of talk re possible buyout by larger entity, such as walmart. But, you should do your own dd and decide on your own to buy or not.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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