personally, i don't think it matters that much. a refi would be great, but they will be able to resume payouts spring of next year. at some point price should reflect that. i have seen all sorts of payout numbers posited, but the safest imo is somewhere either .48c/.60 per share. a $6 price on .48c distribution seems reasonable to me, so anywhere down near $4 this becomes an interesting place for new funds. a lot of positive wild cards with CMA CGM owning 47%. for the thinking investor, again, imho.
i went all in (twice no less) last Fall when NM hit 7.5% yield,, $3.20 & below; same for NMM at 15%, $12 i think. grabbed my cojones and dove. today that looks like a lay up, but a lot of fear then. i own both huge, NNA medium. for children too. just don't see the point in getting in and out, for me anyway. i am after good old fashioned wealth! man, have they delivered, but this is still way early in game... just mho.
it doesn't matter on the revs. yet anyway. the ins payout covered it for the year. and watch as the p/s kicks in more and more. just $2mm+ this quarter, but my bet is it's the sleeper ad in quarters to come. imo, this will be generational wealth creation... given time.
i came in late, Foo, but a few things strike me. 1) profit sharing kicked in $2mm for quarter, twice last year. i have felt p/s was unappreciated by the Street and it seems i am right so far. this is only beginning. 2) NNA & NMM together pay NM 167% of stated distribution, so divs are safe; 3) revenue days 65% for 2013 contracted now, time charter inquiries front run spot rates as big movers like Cargill look to lock rates in before spike; 4) ebitda for NSALI was way up 60% Q on Q, mostly due to increased storage capacity, river assets, and water level on river. NSALI is running full capacity.... #1 in db & wet (i think) and # 2 in cabotage; the overall leader on river system. my takeaway is NSALI is being dressed up for IPO, maybe in 2015; 5) Chinese ore stockpiles at historic low of 20 days.... augurs well for capes at some visible point; 6) weakness in yen opens up many new North/South possibilities (as i understood comments). big mkt there.
analysts sound awe struck. some of us have been waiting a long time for this because we saw value & management talent as a constant. maybe now the analyst get on board. they certainly sound interested. truly fine to see this management really firing on almost all cylinders. one aside, i know there was insider buying on NNA secondary last Fall at $2.85. not sure why that doesn't get reported, but i know some execs bought in secondary. good for them!
i know i bought what i thought was a lot of stock right at $3.20, but in hindsight i wish i had bought sev x that 25k more shs. following your thread, PD, my own feeling is the distillate mkt in East is challenged big time. we are flooded with oil & gas, but declining refinery infrastructure. only solution is importing distillate stocks. someone correct me if i am wrong, but my impression is Jones Act applies to crude, not distilled product. there is where the jackpot is imo. mojo
"hasn't panned out " hmmm, Navios was pretty much just an idea 6 yrs ago. now it;s a global shipping brand with a yellow brick road before it. no, hasn't really panned out.
also, Foo... the phrase "Near Future" was used by AF to describe possibilities going forward. no accident or misspeak. imo, this is too complicated for analysts. they're "drilling down" on lube costs and dry docking schedules when this team has created a preferred global shipping brand in just 5 years flat. holy s**t, batman, this was an SPAC in '07!! look at what this team has done.
interesting that PE has been pitching this but HSH threw in with Navios. for HSH it's a 2 x swing on the $200mm. non-perf loans become performing. one needs look closely at KG participants to get full picture, then this near perfect union really comes into focus. you can bet there is more to come.
the odds of Navios losing control of its message are too small to calc. that is a tight group that thinks and speaks one voice/one message, and as far as i know The Guys are all devoted to Angie, so there is no gain to go rogue. only thing i can see that might speed IPO plans is the market being too generous to pass up. but we're not there yet. as for TW, we all apparently agree it is a disgrace. they are not IR's 10th call either, so in TW's dreams! Wow, it is something when a plan comes together!!
i asked someone in management about this overnight. wasn't familiar with TW article, but restated AF has always said NSALI would be IPO'd at a point in the future as yet unidentified. the more informed folk have always said 2015, so i don't see this in 6 mos.
Foo, who does... subscribe to TW that is. what a rag And at such a price!! someone should take their headline writer out for a woodshed session, but i digress:) distributing NSALI direct to NM holders seems unlikely to me. 1) AF owns so much of NM it might appear as self-dealing and that isn't her way, imo; 2) NSALI is already a sort of JV because the Lopez family retained 35% ownership. somehow they have to be treated pari passu, at the least; last, it makes more sense from NM point of view to monetize that asset in a way that helps analysts calculate overall value, lazy & short sighted bunch that they are (in the main). NM is already too complicated for most of them. again, mho. anyway, it is such a juicy asset, why waste the effect it can have on the whole by distributing it?? better a straight IPO in my view.
Play, if i am not mistaken, the new charters all have profit sharing components. i know that is dismissed easily in current environment, but the upside leverage is meaningful IF the market improves to any meaningful extent. what seems unimportant now might surprise to upside. last i heard, a week ago maybe, names like Cargill were fishing for longer fixes. just a thought:)
Aldebran is a Chartered-In vessel whose mid-point redelivery date was March 31st. there are another 6 weeks anyway before any decision to purchase vessel or release back needs to be made.