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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

molyvestor 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 24, 2014 12:40 AM Member since: Nov 9, 2012
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  • molyvestor molyvestor Jun 24, 2014 12:40 AM Flag

    It's amazing how executives are compensated so handsomely to do their best to destroy shareholder value. Unless there is some kind of buy out offer coming I have no idea why the TMED offer was made, even then I am still not sure. It makes 0 sense to me. It can't just be because Perron was bored while MM is ramping up. Why create millions of more shares than you need to. I am pretty sure the share price will be above 5.45 by 5/15, probably before the end of the year. So what is the logic there, I just don't see any. Very agitating, you want to take the guy aside, slap him in the face and say hey man, quit diluting the crap out of us. We gave you a bunch of stock, just be patient and hope for a lower dilution not force the highest one possible right not. I wish we could get a good explanation of this one.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • molyvestor molyvestor May 22, 2014 6:06 AM Flag

    I wouldn't say "buy them out" as much as "give them a chance to cover the short" right before potentially the first quarter of positive earnings in a long time. Again if we believe a large number of TMED holders are employing the long the TMED short the common strategy this is the perfect time to cover before this next blow out quarter we are all speculating about which seems likely with improving moly prices and MM ramp up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • molyvestor molyvestor May 21, 2014 10:43 PM Flag

    I would think the TMED holders would bite because those who were long the TMEDs and short the common would use this opportunity to now cover their short without being forced to buy the stock at a premium later in the open market. Hence no short covering rally. Easy exit for that short position that was put on when the TMEDs were created in the first place.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • molyvestor molyvestor May 21, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    Where are you getting 1 million from in line item c? I was counting on PPS above 5.45 this time next year and only 40 million shares being created as a result, not 48 million shares being created today. My math is fine. Please ignore me if I am boring you. I apologize that I am not able to entertain you. I feel as though I have failed. LOL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • molyvestor molyvestor May 21, 2014 2:33 PM Flag

    If TC's share price is above $5.45 next May when the TMEDs convert then the 8.8 million TMEDs convert at 4.58 shares per TMED so only 40 million shares would be created. The company is basically saying we don't know what our share price will be in 12 months so we are just going to convert at the highest rate possible now AND throw in some extra shares to boot as a premium in lieu of your interest payments. The result is that 48 million shares will be created with certainty where as just letting the TMEDs and higher moly prices and MM ramp up run their natural course could result in only 40 million shares being created. So that is where I am getting 8 million shares from. I figured the stock above $5.45 by this time next year would be a pretty high probability event given what we know about moly prices and the MM ramp up at this point in time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • molyvestor molyvestor May 21, 2014 2:15 PM Flag

    Agreed time Horizon is relevant. My time horizon is about 2 to 3 years now. I have a lot of Jan 15 calls as well but I have more shares so I am tending to think more like a long term investor. I am just thinking ahead to how much it will cost the company to buy those 8 million shares back later. Probably more than the 16 million dollars they will save now. I know the 8 million shares isn't a certainty but I kind of figured the stock would be above 5 in a year from now and so the TMED conversion would be at the lower end of the share creation range.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • molyvestor molyvestor May 21, 2014 1:55 PM Flag

    You are ok with the extra 8 million shares to save 16 million in cash?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • molyvestor molyvestor May 21, 2014 1:53 PM Flag

    I didn't know a company could be prevented/restricted from purchasing back it's own common stock in the open market. That is really tieing your hands behind your back when agree to terms like that.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • molyvestor molyvestor May 21, 2014 1:44 PM Flag

    They should have not done anything and just started to buy back their common stock in the open market as they generated cash from higher moly prices. This would have supported the share price and with positive earnings coming due to higher moly prices helped push the stock price up so that minimal shares were created by the TMED conversion. This would have been the most shareholder friendly thing to do. I think the same financial engineering puppet masters that talked them into issuing the TMEDS are probably the same ones telling them how to get out of them right now in one of the least shareholder friendly ways possible.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • molyvestor molyvestor May 21, 2014 1:24 PM Flag

    I don't know. 1 million of the 8 million TMEDs traded hands the other day in a single after hours transaction if I remember correctly. Volumes can be had if price points are met. I just freaking hate expensive dilution. 8 million more shares than we needed is a lot of extra shares to save 16 million dollars in payments.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Immediate Company Savings

    by blakeeric619 May 21, 2014 12:51 PM
    molyvestor molyvestor May 21, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    I think this action is expensive and executed poorly. If we had waited and had two blow out quarters of positive earnings then the stock would probably be above $5 per share in which case if it were above 5.45 only 40 million shares would have been created in the dilution of the TMED conversion. Given what the company is doing now, 48 million shares of dilution will be created. That is a difference of 8 million shares and I figure in 2 years each share will be worth $10 so that is a cost of $80 million dollars of dilution to shareholders. I am just thinking that seems like a high price to pay to save the cash on the next few TMED payouts. Not really expecting the moly price spike to reverse itself or anything so should be plenty of cash on hand.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • molyvestor molyvestor May 21, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    If TC management were confident in the new cash flow from higher moly prices and MM ramp up and confident that their equity was undervalued in the market, why would they not just start making market purchases of the underpriced equity (Tmeds) in the open market. I am disappointed that they are executing such that the TMEDS do maximum dilution damage to existing shareholders. I would think a management interested in maximizing shareholder returns for the long run would do everything they can to minimize dilution. This action does confuse me quite a bit and doesn't seem as advantageous to shareholders as it could have been. I think this company is undervalued and should be $5 right not and I think most people on the board agree that the company is undervalued so why buy back undervalued assets in this manner versus attempting to be stealthy about it in the market and get the best deal possible for shareholders. Maybe there is a buyout and management is only thinking short term. I guess I would be too if I just got a ton of free shares and didn't have to pay for them myself. If the next couple of quarters are going show positive earnings and a possible blow out, you could have issued far fewer shares at the planned point in time of the TMED conversion because I would fully expect the stock to be about $5 by then.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Just sold all 16,000 of my shares at $2.77

    by canucks May 12, 2014 1:14 PM
    molyvestor molyvestor May 14, 2014 6:07 PM Flag

    Be careful light! You're forgetting that there is a gap between 2.60 and 2.68 that MUST be filled. It MUST! The chart GODS demand this and have spoken!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Just sold all 16,000 of my shares at $2.77

    by canucks May 12, 2014 1:14 PM
    molyvestor molyvestor May 13, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    I think most people here are investors not traders. I could be wrong though. Personally my foresight extends out further out than a couple of hours, days, or even weeks with TC but everyone has their own time horizon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Q2 is going to be ridiculous

    by switch_1995 May 12, 2014 10:32 PM
    molyvestor molyvestor May 13, 2014 4:41 AM Flag

    This is what he is referring to.

    "In May 2014, TC Mine experienced a wall slide. As a result of the slide, access to Phase 7 ore has been temporarily cut
    off. Once it has been established that it is safe to resume operations in the pit mining of Phase 7 ore will recommence. During
    this period, we are processing stockpiled ore and, at this time, we do not believe there will be any material impact to the 2014
    outlook as disclosed in our 2013 Form 10-K. However, we will be performing technical work to assess the full impact of the
    slide."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

TC
2.83+0.03(+1.07%)Jul 22 4:04 PMEDT

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