Damn Ultra you should have taken that job! You could have gotten 700,000 shares at today's price in your first couple of weeks of work on the job! That is 0.3% of the company. Not releasing any guidance on MM and not answering questions on the con call got the strike way down to here for him. I am going to be a CEO one day! Best job in the world! Kevin only had like 250,000 shares from his entire time there and he paid for a lot of those himself!
I think at one time, the only thing Warren Buffet owned was GEICO. He had all his eggs in one basket. Most very financially well off people at one time or another concentrated their money into an investment that grew like crazy and then diversified later. Depends on your age and risk tolerance.
The CEO said they were having the usual "GLITCHES" with no elaboration allowing analysts to draw their own conclusions. They just didn't say much and you could tell that some of the analysts were put off. I was as well. I think the lack of guidance and that we won't get guidance until February is bad in the short run. Suggests problems at MM that they did not elaborate on. Maybe they will surprise us and we will get guidance sooner but they were not definitive and uncertainty is bad for stock prices.
I know. He made it sound like we won't get guidance until the next call in February. Why should we have to wait 4 months for guidance that was promised this month. We should get monthly updates on MM production. We didn't even get clear data on October MM production and that is now historical information.
Well if your a hacker or programmer, you can probably just create your own. They say it's not possible but I doubt it, it's digital and was created by someone. The concept was probably created by hackers so that they could get control of the wealthy's money in the future when they renounce their citizenship and become global citizens so that they don't have to pay taxes. The Chinese are using them to get money out of their country since when your rich in China the government can just come in and take your assets.
I wouldn't really buy them though I was just being sarcastic. To me that is like a game of musical chairs. I have some old Showbiz Pizza and Chucky Cheese tokens I have had since I was a kid. Wonder if they have appreciated?
What you need to do is go buy bitcoins. Bitcoins are going up in value like crazy! The fake money that some person created digitally is performing better than TC stock! Solar, bitcoins, Tesla, their all on fire! Feels like a big bubble blowing up again. Seriously concerned the bubble will pop after the portfolio managers finish this year.
I believe he still owns all of his shares, including the ones he purchased with his own money. But not sure if he has to disclose sales since he is no longer the CEO or an officer of the company.
I was forced to sell some I had purchased before the call on margin so there is probably some forced selling today and the stock will probably be back above $3 tomorrow knowing my luck. Maybe even before the close today. Margin purchases are at an all time high in the stock market even higher leverage than before 2008.
Regarding the CEO. He is a CEO. He knew he was going to be CEO of TC for a while. If I were going to be the new CEO of a firm I would have started to try to understand the business well before my first day and before accepting the job even to make sure I would still have one when I quit the one I had. I would have asked for all kinds of information to prepare for my new job to understand the company coming in. It is not really a complicated business to understand especially if you have worked in the industry like Ultra and Jacques have. Scenario analysis is what databases and spreadsheets are for and coming up with a plan shouldn't really take that long. It's a small company. I am just disappointed that they didn't share any October production specifics. I feel like we have a right to know the details as the analysts suggested on the call. Kevin was announcing the production details before he left and that is what the analysts were getting used to, not mums the word or I'll tell you later.
Not sure the risk was lower back then. Back then commodity prices were much higher. They could survive more easily on $13 moly than $9 moly. Could have more easily sold their moly operations if they wanted to back then to fund MM. MM is now funded and built but they are still trying to get the mine running profitably. Fed policy is going to determine which way this one goes just like the rest of the market. I just hope Yellen is as easy as they say! Gotta prey the dollar stays weak to support commodity prices for an extended period of time so that TC can pay off their debt, reduce their interest expense, and break-even point.
End of 2012
End of 2013
Management didn't say anything new or of value on the conference call. Just that they won't be short of cash but the market was expecting that because the stock didn't rally on the news that new equity would not be needed. I bet we don't get good guidance until after management gives themselves their annual stock options in the spring.
Current gold recoveries were quoted at 47%. They mentioned a gravity circuit but its impact was pretty much dismissed as negligible (additional 1%).
He also mentioned that their balance sheet needs some work so he is probably looking to divest some assets to reduce leverage and give them some more wiggle room. That is probably what I would be looking to do as well if I were him. Try to do whatever you need to to reduce your break even point.
I heard a hint of the same thing. One of their opportunities they said they would be investigating sounded like to me.
If the fed tapers soon or ends QE and the dollar strengthens relative to other currencies, gold, copper, and moly could fall in dollar terms all at once. Who knows how much? There has been a lot of banter that QE isn't really doing anything of value except inflating all prices in the short term and forcing investors into a riskier stock market. One former fed member actually apologized for it on CNBC. I think early fed taper is a real risk to a highly leveraged TC. Definitely a lot of Beta in this stock. It can work for you or against you though. I believe the fed will not taper in 2014 but if I am wrong holding TC could get more expensive over the next year. Falling commodity prices is a real risk. We would be above 6 probably if we had last years commodity prices but the trend has been down as the market anticipates the taper. MM production volumes really need to pick up. I figure if they were good in October, they would have been shared on the conference call this morning but they didn't.
End of 2012
End of 2013
Not really happy he is refusing to provide MM guidance and October production! Kind of their job to tell us what is going on since we own the company (the I'm new guy so I don't know is always a good excuse for a while). If you wait long enough your plan will be accurate because it will be your actual. Sounded to me as if he had to provide guidance right now it would be negatively interpreted because he said he did not want to give investors "the wrong impression." Doesn't sound like they have really generated much concentrate in the last five weeks since they haven't even shipped anything yet. They are still waiting to ship their first 5000 tons of concentrate (supposed to be 10 days normal production). Said they had 1800 tons of concentrate at the end of September so looks like not much produced in the last 5-6 weeks (of course we don't know since they wouldn't say). Said recoveries had improved but doesn't sound like they improved that much from previous numbers provided. The conference call felt to me like the typical political dance and didn't really provide much new information to investors. I learned more from Ultra. The meaningful information that I was most interested in wasn't disclosed. Gotta just keep on waiting to see what happens. I don't like it when people dance around a subject. Just come out and state the facts. Give us your disclaimer if you want but give us the facts and let us draw our own conclusions based on the data.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
We are supposed to get guidance for the full year of 2014 I believe and if anything can move the stock price that should do it. If that doesn't do it, we will just have to keep waiting for them to show us the money from MM. Gotta hope the fed doesn't taper immediately and strengthen the dollar further either.