better than US finance executives who are free to start their own companies after defrauding the public
FBR Capital Raised Price Target on New Residential Investment (NRZ) Saying Shares Still Undervalued
May 27, 2015 7:11 AM EDT
FBR Capital maintains an Outperform rating on New Residential Investment (NYSE: NRZ), and raised the price target to $21.00 (from ...
ndibari is completely delusional. the company is severely undervalued and at minimum should be at $13. the trend has changed and so has the perception with this company. Impairments are meaningless considering oil has stabilized in the 60s.
Real money = 0.27 c EPS/USD
Let's slap a 12 PE and this should be around $13-15 this year.
They actually don't need to reduce debt, they have 3 years until any maturities come due. They need to divest their Coal operations, Canada operations, and lastly, Australian I/O operations.
This will allow them to raise cash and then they can focus on the USIO operations (their most profitable region) where they did 28% Gross margin last quarter.
I agree with SURF, here is the math for the USIO Q1'15 and then I'll extrapolate if over 4 quarters.
-- USIO Adj. EBITDA = $105M
-- Depreciation = ($21.7M)
-- Capital Additions ($9.5M)
-- USIO Net Profit = $73.8M
Multiply this by 4 Quarters = $295M profit
Depending on Iron Ore prices, profit will fluctuate between $250M - 350M, this gets a 2015 EPS for USIO = $1.50-2 EPS based on 170M diluted shares.
If you apply a P/E of 12 - 15. Cliffs should easily be between $18-30.
And one other positive, they have no debt maturities until 2018!
There is a lot of noise with low Iron Ore prices and negative sentiment, however, WS hasn't factored what Cliffs will look like with just their "core assets".
And I just did the math for you.
I;m long under 5.50 but how can 74.5M shares be short or 56% of float? that is ridiculous. upside is this can gap up 20% over night
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Those were just "analyst" estimates for their dividends. I'm sure they are very conservative.
BTW, what are your price targets for "fairly valued"?
I am having trouble fairly valuing this company with the acquisition of HLSS. But I'm taking a target dividend yield of 10% with $1.80 - $2 dividends for 2015 and backing out the share price to $18-20.
8 Analyst estimates are as follows:
Q1 - 0.38
Q2 - 0.41
Q3 - 0.45
Q4 - 0.45
2 analyst estimates are as follows:
Q1 - 0.46
Q2 - 0.46
Q3 - 0.47
Q4 - 0.48
your thesis is inaccurate. The downside on PBR is at best $3, but the upside is $20. You are picking up literally pennies. If you want to short something, go after cyber security #$%$ or biotech with no revenues
What you're missing is that the DOLLAR has TOPPED and is beginning to get WEAKER as investors, realize there are far better opportunities outside of the U.S.
Additionally, inflation is upon us, which was close to 0% the entire year!
I am long materials, copper, oil, steel, basic materials.
Bearish on all froth related to tech, biotech, interest rate sensitive reits.
Your approach is correct, the market is pre-1999 or on the verge of collapsing, but you don't play it with a inflation hedge such as oil, you SHORT TECH or BIOTECH, things that are up 500%, not at decade lows!
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