Let's keep it real fellas,
ANR is expected to lose money in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018.
Here are analyst expectations
2013A - (2.15)
2014E - (2.57)
2015E - (2.41)
2016E - (1.71)
2017E - (1.45)
2018E - (1.45)
Highly doubt the vix goes higher from here. We would have to see another 300 point drop in the dow. I have a feeling it stabilizes up here.
Same thing happened with natural gas. Oversupply. Saying it would go under $1. They cut production and Nat gas prices rose. Coal was undercut. The reverse will happen shortly. Coal will rise, frac gas will decline
This is exhibiting the same behavior that LVS did back in 2009. It takes some patience. Coal usage is going nowhere. Current valuation is ~500M.
Cash & Short Term investments = $850M, which is about $3.80 per share. Throw in Core Assets of $8.6B and you can see what type of value this has. Let's see, ANR can sell some of it's non-core assets and pump it's short term current assets even higher.
As a previous poster stated. this is a long-term call with no time decay.
Goldman said it sees no relief for met coal miners as slowing steel production in China, the potential for greater than expected supply from major producers in Australia, Mozambique and China and continued cost deflation shifting the global cost curve lower all weigh on pricing.
Goldman reduced its met coal benchmark price productions for 2015 to $126/tonne from $140/tonne and lowered its 2016 forecast to $142/tonne from $147/tonne. The most recent quarterly benchmark settled at $119/tonne, the lowest in seven years.
Analysts cautioned that their forecast could be revised if growth in China picks up, if met coal production cuts have a greater impact on pricing or if producers cut costs more than expected.
Goldman's latest report comes several weeks after it gave a dour outlook on the thermal coal market, noting pending coal-plant retirements in the U.S., rail issues impacting coal deliveries and reduced coal export projections.
Here is a catalyst. GS expects 2015 met coal prices to be between 125-135. 2016 to be 145-160
If met coal prices hit 150. ANR will be cash flow positive! That's your catalyst. Further, they have $1.3B in liquidity to last the next few years. They are not going BK, however, WLT or ACI is.
Monetized a portion of Alpha's Marcellus acreage for $300 million; $100 million in cash
and ~9.5 million shares of RICE*
• Alpha has entered into a new JV with the remaining Marcellus position of ~10,000 acres;
JV has since grown to ~20,000 gross acres
• First drilling activity expected to take place in late 2014 with production commencing in
Description Maturity Amount
$1,100 Revolving Credit Facility June, 2016 $0
2.375% Convertible Notes April, 2015 $44
3.25% Convertible Notes August, 2015 $109
3.75% Convertible Notes December, 2017 $345
9.75% Senior Notes (CCC+/Caa1) April, 2018 $500
6.0% Senior Notes (CCC+/Caa1) June, 2019 $800
7.5% Sr. Secured 2nd Lien Notes (B/B2) August, 2020 $500
4.875% Convertible Notes December, 2020 $345
6.25% Senior Notes (CCC+/Caa1) June, 2021 $700
TL B (BB-/B1) May, 2020 $617
Capital Leases Various $64
Total Long-term Debt $4,024
Liquidity and Credit Statistics Amount
Cash and Equivalents and Marketable Securities*
Less: Letters of Credit Outstanding ($133)
Total Potential Liquidity $2,395
Um ok. Look up what the yields are on the 2020s corporate. It's 40%. Now, tell me, where can you make 40% in one-year without taking MASSIVE risk? That's right, nowhere, because it's too good to be true. The bonds (smart money) has already indicated this is well on it's way to BK. The equity has 0 terminal value.
Don't feel bad if you're down a few thousands, better than millys
So did #$%$ Fuld. Where did that get him?
why would you not watch this daily? You can lose 50% over the course of a week if you don't watch carefully. in fact you should set a stop loss at $10