This is incredible. It went from 17.20 to 15.60 in the matter of a few weeks. You can thank idiotic management and WS analysts for pumping this with price targets of $18 and $19
the overhang is 120B in debt. However, they have assets of 260B. 2015E EPS is $1. They also have proven reserves worth well over $600B. the question is how do they get that out of the ground without increasing capex? That's right, they will sell some of the rights to foreign companies to help raise cash. I value them at close to 100B, which would be about $15
i bought today at 13.06. I'll keep a tight stop in the low 12s, should it continue to free fall
better than US finance executives who are free to start their own companies after defrauding the public
FBR Capital Raised Price Target on New Residential Investment (NRZ) Saying Shares Still Undervalued
May 27, 2015 7:11 AM EDT
FBR Capital maintains an Outperform rating on New Residential Investment (NYSE: NRZ), and raised the price target to $21.00 (from ...
ndibari is completely delusional. the company is severely undervalued and at minimum should be at $13. the trend has changed and so has the perception with this company. Impairments are meaningless considering oil has stabilized in the 60s.
Real money = 0.27 c EPS/USD
Let's slap a 12 PE and this should be around $13-15 this year.
They actually don't need to reduce debt, they have 3 years until any maturities come due. They need to divest their Coal operations, Canada operations, and lastly, Australian I/O operations.
This will allow them to raise cash and then they can focus on the USIO operations (their most profitable region) where they did 28% Gross margin last quarter.
I agree with SURF, here is the math for the USIO Q1'15 and then I'll extrapolate if over 4 quarters.
-- USIO Adj. EBITDA = $105M
-- Depreciation = ($21.7M)
-- Capital Additions ($9.5M)
-- USIO Net Profit = $73.8M
Multiply this by 4 Quarters = $295M profit
Depending on Iron Ore prices, profit will fluctuate between $250M - 350M, this gets a 2015 EPS for USIO = $1.50-2 EPS based on 170M diluted shares.
If you apply a P/E of 12 - 15. Cliffs should easily be between $18-30.
And one other positive, they have no debt maturities until 2018!
There is a lot of noise with low Iron Ore prices and negative sentiment, however, WS hasn't factored what Cliffs will look like with just their "core assets".
And I just did the math for you.
I;m long under 5.50 but how can 74.5M shares be short or 56% of float? that is ridiculous. upside is this can gap up 20% over night
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Those were just "analyst" estimates for their dividends. I'm sure they are very conservative.
BTW, what are your price targets for "fairly valued"?
I am having trouble fairly valuing this company with the acquisition of HLSS. But I'm taking a target dividend yield of 10% with $1.80 - $2 dividends for 2015 and backing out the share price to $18-20.