At this point I think you have to respect the FDA decision and move on. The chart reflected how the street perceived this outcome before the decision, and now they're cutting the stock in half. If the big money thought there was a good chance of an approval next month, they wouldn't take 50% of the stock's value, they would be supporting the stock in the $14's and accumulating for a much bigger move. The risk is greater than the reward, there are better opportunities out there.
Good post, but their approval or not is based on science, and not emotion. That said, I agree with your post about giving them hope with a temporary approval.
The FDA has approved a ton of drugs with way more baggage (side effects, labeling issues, etc.) than Sarepta's drug. I'm sure you've seen the TV commercials for drugs advertised, and then they list the adverse side effects, usually 25 or so ("If you have feelings of suicide after taking this drug, consult with your doctor", or "if you have diabetes, this drug could cause cancer," etc.)
The bureaucracy here is ridiculous.
If it were to go anywhere near $75, it won't be in one day, that number may take a couple of weeks or more. Temporary approval still presents with some degree of uncertainty for the final FDA vote in May.
and if the panel recommends no approval, $7-$8. Let's see how close I come tomorrow...By the way, all of my conjectures here are based on Tuesday's trading. It could go higher than $45 later in the week.
you've hit a home run. So if you're long 1,000 shares for example, you can book about $20 000-$25,000 in profit assuming a 25 point move tomorrow, or higher. But if the panel does not recommend the drug for FDA approval, your downside risk from here could be to about $7-$8, or about $8 ($8,000 on your 1,000 shares).
This is not an investment, it's not even a sane trade, unless of course money is no object, and the gain (or loss) would not crush your portfolio.
Everyone should read Feuerstein's latest blog, and follow it live today if they have a horse in this race. No one knows which way this will go...But for me, if I were still short this stock, I would be very nervous, because clearly the much higher risk at this point is to the upside.
Good luck to all.
Mobileye right now has a market cap of 8.69 Billion, with revenue of only $240M. The fact that growth is slowing, or definitely will slow because of competition, no barrier to entry on their technology, and overall slowing auto growth (maybe not today, but later this year), can all explain why MBLY is in the process of resuming it's downtrend, off of what has been an impressive counter trend move. Of course the entire market has had a substantial counter trend move that is not sustainable, so not only will MBLY follow the market lower, but because of their industry specific issues, may retest near the February lows.. Just my opinion, supported by Citron and others.
I'm afraid the only pothole Mobileye can or will identify is the pothole I think the stock is headed for....at least somewhere in the $32-$33 range.
JP Morgan came out yesterday with a reiteration of a hold call, with a $23 price target......$23!! What do they know? This is all about the hedge funds trying to play catch up. The entire market, but esp. the energy names have been parabolic now for two months. I don't know when, but at some point this will probably end badly.
Andrew Left has been correct on his calls. His timing is not always precise, i.e. his calls are early sometimes, but they're accurate. I bet with Bill Ackman months ago when Citron first wrote about Valeant. I got out in time without too much damage, but the stock was crushed. I've read your thesis as you're long the stock, but you're not factoring in competition, a big issue. Left's analysis makes sense, and more importantly after this 2 month counter trend run, it looks like the stock will fall now and retest somewhere in the $32.50 range, or even lower if Citron's thesis proves correct.
It's beyond silly. CLR's stock has been literally parabolic for about 8 weeks, up over 125% during that time. At some point it will be unsustainable, I just don't know when. As soon as it pulls back slightly on the intraday chart, more buyers jump in.....They call it "momentum" trading. I call it insanity...By the way, the entire market has been parabolic since mid Feb.
The CFO leaves, the stock tanks, the Nasdaq tanks, and the market FINALLY starts it's descent.
Never, EVER bet against Andrew Left. I did, and it cost me thousands. Not any more...His thesis on MBLY is correct, and his side of the trade is the correct side.
Vince, it's beyond belief. If you look at the weekly charts for CLR and other E&P names, it has been a parabolic move with virtually no pullback or consolidation. And if you notice, every single day an analyst for CLR tries to play catch up, and they raise the price target quite a bit. No research mind you, just a price target raise based on how the stock has been performing.
As for the Fed, it's the same old song for the past 7 years. Circumvent the normal business cycle, talk the markets up, they play good guy Fed speak and bad guy speak, all in an effort to create the illusion that the economy is great. And of course it's an election year, and the Feds are all Democrats, so they have to make it look like the economy is doing well by inflating the markets.
They couldn't start a downtrend yesterday after the failed summit meeting, I don't know when they will.
And people think the political primaries are fixed. This has been going on for years. As for JPM, the headline is "profit falls 7%; costs to cover bad loans, revenue declines." Oh wait, they beat the lowered expectations and the stock is up. This exactly supports you theory...for now.
This makes no sense to me, other than a technical move, meaning the smart money knows something that I don't know.
Last week the crude stocks inventory went up much more than expected, and CLR went up. Today the draw was less, and CLR and the other oil names are up yet again. This is just silly; the fundamental picture is a disaster, there's no faith in an output freeze, which even if there was one, would not change the glut issue. Technically, CLR is grossly overbought and hasn't had anything close to a Fibonacci retracement.
So on April 1, five days ago, Stifel reiterated a buy on CLR. Today, they downgraded the stock to hold. What did they learn in the past few days that caused them to now turn bearish?