I admire your enthusiasm, and I'd like to believe you're correct. But I'm afraid the technicals say otherwise. The long term trendline broke down in early Nov. If $41.50 were to hold for awhile, it may go up from there. Any sustained move below that level would be problematic. This Friday or Monday's trading may be a telling sign. It seems the market is in the process of repricing drug, generic, and biotech companies. Also, I can tell you from experience that a move up in after hours on 5,000 shares does not show excitement building.
Retail traders: "But CNBC's guests said the January effect and the Santa rally is in full force" "What about Tom Lee and Jeremy Siegel, they're never wrong, should we keep buying?" Bob from Illinois, talking to his wife: "Mabel, what's a margin call?" "CNBC said it's smooth sailing, the US economy doing great"
I hate to tell you guys here, esp. those still long the market, the markets do NOT go straight up, no matter what CNBC tells you.
Here's what's going on.....They're selling all the momentum winners from last year that are clearly overbought, and they're accumulating the stocks that have been beaten down (energy in particular). Makes sense to me.
You do exist after all, good to see you back. Well they all got their bonuses IBD, so now the selling begins. They're starting with all the high flying momentum stocks, which were all grossly overbought. They're taking that money and buying the crushed energy stocks. I've had it with the Tom Lee's, and the Jeremy Siegels and Jim Cramers.....We're ready for the real correction to begin.
Look at them painting the tape, trying to get the right candlestick for Monday.....
Back of the napkin valuation metrics are simply subjective phenomena. Stocks are bought and sold on emotions, sentiment, and technical charts. Fundamentals play a role as well. US Silica reported a great quarter last quarter, and guided to the high end, and raised their guidance. But the market said no, oil is going down, and so are you. A lot of arrogant assumptions by traders.... Wall Street overshoots to the high, and to the low as well..... SLCA is grossly undervalued here, and the insiders know this, as they're buying shares. The insiders are saying no to the arrogance
So you would be a buyer near $23.31.....Unfortunately for you, that price came and left quickly around December 15. Now the stock is under accumulation for a move technically to first $30, then about $36. They'll be
resistance along the way, but your $50 target will come, maybe in a few months. Notice how energy is becoming en vogue now, as the broader market starts to sell off. US Silica is an absolute steal at these prices, you're right about that. Let's see how this plays out over the next few months.
And as a chart guy myself, there's a buy sign on both the daily and weekly charts right now. $29-$30 looks like the destination for the end of this week. Monday or Tuesday's trading could certainly alter my opinion, but there's a strong buying signal on the weekly chart, and that's what I'm relying on for now. I do agree with you about possible short term resistance at the upper BB on the daily chart, which is why my base call is for about $30 by Friday. I'll update this later in the week.
Jrdelane.....thanks for your technical input, but I have to tell you, I'm not thrilled with a doji print Friday on the daily chart, right at near term resistance. Also, the trendline is printing lower highs lately, and can't seem to close above the near term resistance at the mid level BB and 20ema.
Do not listen to anyone who makes predictions. And don't listen to anyone who relies on historical trends for their base case. NO ONE knows how the markets will perform in 2015, it's that simple. The cheerleaders like Siegel and Lee will be out in full force, they're paid to tell everyone the markets will go up forever, that's their job. Why listen to their agendas?
Actually no, because as I stated in my post, I wanted to see Monday and Tuesday's trading. I wanted to see if $24.35 was going to be tested, but it never got there. It's possible it's tested tomorrow morning, so we'll see. But in case you missed it robin, oil was down almost $2 today, and every oil stock in the universe was hammered....SLCA fell about 6%, which I don't consider to be problematic at this point. I'm a swing trader, so I'm more
interested in the weekly moves than the daily moves.....That said, let's see what Tuesday brings.
Jrdelane, what you're not realizing is that each of your so called spikes have been met with selling, forming lower highs. The close is much more important than the intraday moves. The stock is clearly in a downtrend. "It wants to go higher".....I could never figure out what that means, yet I hear the phrase from time to time. There is absolutely no specific correlation between a "good" market day, and a positive move for a stock in a downtrend. A sustained move below $41.75 will lead to a possible break below $40, and if that happens, this stock is in trouble for the time being.
Can't you tell by the way the market is reacting the past few days? Stop watching CNBC, they have their own agenda!
When a stock goes up, he says it's going higher. When it goes down, and is beaten down like the oil stocks, he says there's no bottom yet, and it's going lower. The markets are a complete mess right now....I guess it's time to drag Jeremy Siegel and Tom Lee back on air, to tell everyone how wonderful things are.....The moral of the story is don't listen to anyone else, and certainly not to people on CNBC.
You wait and wait, and now the bombshell. It's feast or famine. Good luck.
It's called an inverse head and shoulders.....It's bullish, and it looks like it's forming here. I look for Diamondback to decouple from the rest of the oil names, as it's sufficiently hedged, is a low cost provider, and is not as affected by low oil prices, and will remain very profitable.
The Dow goes down over 600 points in two days, and goes up 600 points yesterday and today so far. 4 days, a 1200 point swing.....Sure, that makes sense.... Is there no such thing as consolidating anymore? Usually when a market swings back and forth like this with wild moves, it means a bear market is around the corner.