I don't have enough time to explain to you what a base is...but then I'm sure you know. Cover wherever you choose, it's your money. The stock was only lower previously because the shorts only have the perception of dilution as their catalyst. And with the biotech collapse, the street built a narrative that the capital markets would be a headwind for RLYP. Nothing could be further from the truth. I don't really know why I'm wasting my time responding to short sellers.
Absolute quality as far as comebacks, hschlauch. Kudos...I'm relatively new investing in RLYP, but I have a substantial position. I'm learning who to follow around here, and you're high on my list.
I think we call agree that what's really pathetic is someone who shorts a biotech with no more than about 2-$3 downside risk, vs. about $25-$30+ upside risk.
This is a really good point, and is part of my theory from my "technical take" thread earlier. Why is there no early buzz on efficacy data (at least from AZN management), or no industry talk of this late May event? Those here who have listened to the AZN CC (great DD by the way) have reported absolutely no mention or excitement for something only weeks away. Buyer's remorse, or something more ominous? Granted, I wouldn't think the FDA would telegraph any info, but still. Good dialogue....
Kudos to all on the "MRK offer" thread, great read.
So my take involves an off topic look at AZN's stock chart. Yes, they just had a disappointing quarter, but the stock has been in a long term downtrend. It popped a bit right after the announced ZSPH acquisition in Nov., but since then it has resumed its downtrend in a big way. My point? If the street really thought Z's drug was anything close to a home run M&A, they (the street) would have had more respect for AZN than they do, IMHO. I realize AZN has many other irons in the game, but still... and I could be way off base here, but I follow the technicals very closely, because that's the only leading indicator we have of big money movement....It's not a perfect science, but it can be very reliable.
On the other hand, RLYP's chart is consolidating the big move to offer $25 in early April, with a typical Fibonacci retracement. BTW, it will be very easy to determine who's short or long the stock, based on the responses I get to my post.
I disagree somewhat. The ER report Weds. will probably not be a market mover, unless management comments on any M&A.
Z's FDA decision will probably be the market mover in late May, but it's still a win-win in my opinion. If Z's approved with baggage, RLYP wins. If Z gets an approval clean, RLYP is still the first mover, and the market is big enough for two players, focused on two different parts of the puzzle. And any potential acquirer is waiting for the Z FDA decision, to determine the premium for the take out. So I don't see a month long of volatility as you suggest, but rather one catalyst event at the end of May.
It's basically some of what you said, re win-win. If it's approved with labeling issues, or dosage issues like ours, that's also a win for us, as we're first to market. But still, the potential market is big enough for the two players. I would still like to see a BO or more BO chatter prior to the FDA decision for Z. And it wouldn't surprise me to see the BO chatter/rumors surface again days following Weds' ER report, as they're in a quiet period. BTW, I don't anticipate the ER report will move the needle much either way.
it's waiting for the FDA decision on the competitor. TBH, either way the decision goes before the end of May for ZP, I think it's a win-win for Relypsa, for several reasons.....
So they lower their PPS target to $40 and the stock drops 20% to $18? Those who got in with the upgrade last week are jumping out, and new traders will come in...I guess.
As a retail trader, you have absolutely no substantive information for the boutique downgrade, and you're the last to know,
I'd like to see this analyst's report, and the reason for the downgrade. It's in the $17's already.
What makes no sense is a 15% drop in pre market on a boutique company's downgrade, after the upgrade last week from the more mainstream analysts.