there's still hope for an approval when they finish their studies. The real reaction will come when the FDA makes their final decision, even if they ask for a new trial, which I don't think they will.
I'm thinking SRPT and ICPT will probably be halted all day Thursday, because of their do or die pdufa FDA event. There's no reason to halt RLYP, I'm also thinking it's possible there's a delay in the news dissemination on the ZS decision, since ZSPH is no longer a public company, or not. For AZN shareholders, it's probably a meh event. I bring all this up because I'm expecting SP movement on RLYP before our broker news feeds realize why the stock is moving. Or, I could be way off base on this entire post....a normal situation during a clown show.
I absolutely do (look at technicals closely ahead of a watershed moment). Look at the charts of SRPT, and ICPT, both with huge FDA decisions Thursday as well. The street is telling me (on the chart) SRPT will not get their FDA approval, and ICPT probably will....but I do agree, anything can happen.
There is no issue with today's tape whatsoever, at this writing antonio. You have an intraday drift on the 60 minute 5 or 10 day chart, that's it, which is normal. We have about a 40% Fib retracement, with some expecting to close the prior gap up, but I don't think that will happen. If the 60 minute support breaks down, I'd be mildly concerned, but it has not. I should keep typing, as we're 10 cents off the lows since I started this post.
Anti pharma is a populist campaign approach, nothing more. It's all minutia. Elected officials do not come into office and immediately alter the landscape, we have a checks and balances system. Even the perception of drastically reducing drug prices is misguided.
What is happening now, is the smart money is loading up on profitable, undervalued healthcare stocks like LCI, because the broader economy and the broader markets will more than likely correct again during the summer. This is the safe place to be..., I would advise against shorting a stock that just broke out, unless you're a masochist.
I don't like today's SP action, considering the imminent pdufa this week. You'd want to see the stock continue to trend up into Thurs. but today could very well be just a shakeout, and the rest of the week it goes up.
I totally agree with your take here. This is called the "CYA" scenario, and I'm modeling a 100% chance of this happening.
We're very close to a $17 print now.....with the new efficacy results and the MS upgrade, we're extremely undervalued.....
Interesting, because all three have FDA results this week, although the SRPT and ICPT pdufa results should have more of a material effect on their respective stocks, as they're a make or break decision,
With a normal stock, the gap would have some relevance, i.e. resistance after the gap is filled....Of course, RLYP is no longer a normal stock.
Keeping it simple. Well over $16 as I type. Berens sees the handwriting on the wall. I'm in the delay camp with others here, i.e. a ZS delay, with "more information" required. I've seen that FDA movie before, and AZN won't like it. If ZSPH were still a listed stock, that news would absolutely crater the stock. This should be an interesting week for RLYP longs!
This upgrade should be on my broker's news feed, but I don't see it yet. Also I'm trying to find Beren's full report or some color on the decision...anyone have that yet?
Just....that's huge; the biggest bear on the street finally caved in.....And now with this brand new efficacy news release, Thursday's ZS decision is not as significant, in my opinion, because RLYP can easily go it alone....but I still think the arbitrage players believe RLYP will be acquired at some point.
Exactly, and most who saw the Big Short just dismiss it as entertainment, and don't care about the implications, but you and know better.
Clown show is a good way of describing the blatant, incessant manipulation that goes on in every market, options, oil, heavily shorted names, all of it.. It's just amazing how the SEC doesn't get involved with any part of the clown show.
and now I can't pull it up, the link no longer works. Gee, I wonder why. On a related note, I think we'll test $16 on Monday or Tuesday. It'll be really interesting to see how RLYP trades up to Thurs.