I fully expect Liana Moussatos to reiterate her buy and $47 PPS target tomorrow or Thurday (after the CC)...Was it $47, or $57? I can't recall.
the overhang on the stock was the financing, not whether or not they'll be a buyout. A buyout would just be icing on the cake. How quickly traders forget that when the IBB and most of the biotechs crashed, the narrative was built that because of market conditions, RLYP would not be able to go the banks or the capital markets. Now that overhang is gone. So the only bank in play now is my bank, where I intend to transfer more money to my brokerage account to buy as many shares as I can in the $14's or $15's.
Go have a glass of wine and some dinner....We're good...This deal is very positive. I can't sit here for now and sift through at last count 18 posts by rumrunner and other shorts. I'll catch up with you guys later and tomorrow.
I think the higher interest rate is to allow for the interest only provision in the deal. And as I said earlier, you can't ask for a better outcome, in terms of removing the financing overhang.
To get an interest only provision built into the deal, this explains the higher interest rate. This is exactly what everyone wanted. It's both non-dilutive and buys them time to continue to ramp up scripts while courting suitors. This is clearly a great move.
I would not be surprised at all. As another suggested here a few minutes ago, some of this cash could be to hire an investment bank. But again, a BO is NOT the only strategy for this company. Shorts that don't cover in AH or tomorrow will be very sorry, IMHO.
That's because there is no reason for this drop, other than clowns who think a BO is the only reason for the existence of the stock. As a matter of fact, this removes the financing uncertainty, in that they were able to tap the markets for money.
many of the people who own this stock have no idea what they own. Traders just trade it back and forth, buy at support, sell at resistance intraday, over and over again. If the market gets weaker as it is now going into the close, they sell. There's no rhyme or reason. I really don't care if there's a BO or not, because I believe in the science, and the FDA agrees. Can we get traders to hold for more than a week? A day? More than a half hour? Unbelievable.
It's about time all these oil names are starting to break down. (CLR, NFX, CRZO,) and all the rest. I'm looking for at least a move to $29-$30, unless of course oil decides to trade much lower.
I don't have enough time to explain to you what a base is...but then I'm sure you know. Cover wherever you choose, it's your money. The stock was only lower previously because the shorts only have the perception of dilution as their catalyst. And with the biotech collapse, the street built a narrative that the capital markets would be a headwind for RLYP. Nothing could be further from the truth. I don't really know why I'm wasting my time responding to short sellers.
Absolute quality as far as comebacks, hschlauch. Kudos...I'm relatively new investing in RLYP, but I have a substantial position. I'm learning who to follow around here, and you're high on my list.
I think we call agree that what's really pathetic is someone who shorts a biotech with no more than about 2-$3 downside risk, vs. about $25-$30+ upside risk.
This is a really good point, and is part of my theory from my "technical take" thread earlier. Why is there no early buzz on efficacy data (at least from AZN management), or no industry talk of this late May event? Those here who have listened to the AZN CC (great DD by the way) have reported absolutely no mention or excitement for something only weeks away. Buyer's remorse, or something more ominous? Granted, I wouldn't think the FDA would telegraph any info, but still. Good dialogue....
Kudos to all on the "MRK offer" thread, great read.
So my take involves an off topic look at AZN's stock chart. Yes, they just had a disappointing quarter, but the stock has been in a long term downtrend. It popped a bit right after the announced ZSPH acquisition in Nov., but since then it has resumed its downtrend in a big way. My point? If the street really thought Z's drug was anything close to a home run M&A, they (the street) would have had more respect for AZN than they do, IMHO. I realize AZN has many other irons in the game, but still... and I could be way off base here, but I follow the technicals very closely, because that's the only leading indicator we have of big money movement....It's not a perfect science, but it can be very reliable.
On the other hand, RLYP's chart is consolidating the big move to offer $25 in early April, with a typical Fibonacci retracement. BTW, it will be very easy to determine who's short or long the stock, based on the responses I get to my post.
I disagree somewhat. The ER report Weds. will probably not be a market mover, unless management comments on any M&A.
Z's FDA decision will probably be the market mover in late May, but it's still a win-win in my opinion. If Z's approved with baggage, RLYP wins. If Z gets an approval clean, RLYP is still the first mover, and the market is big enough for two players, focused on two different parts of the puzzle. And any potential acquirer is waiting for the Z FDA decision, to determine the premium for the take out. So I don't see a month long of volatility as you suggest, but rather one catalyst event at the end of May.