I think the consensus now is the street thinks the capital markets are dry, due to the weak biotech, IPO, and market in general. Therefore any capital raise needed would be problematic for the company, and the cash bleed would be a huge issue. Maybe a white knight will come along and partner with RLYP in the near term. If that happened, RLYP would fly back to $30 quickly.
I get the short squeeze, but really it's the same grim news. This looks more like a short opportunity than anything else.
All good points.....and I'll add that with biotech being out of favor for months (companies with their flagship drugs in Phase I were trading like the drug was already on the market for years)....i.e. the negative market sentiment doesn't help....but of course the response to that is RLYP is already on the market!
Yes...but the large players (assuming they still own the stock) usually save some dry powder to add to their position on weakness, and I don't see that happening.
Well said, but still it's very unusual for an analyst from a high profile firm to be so bearish on a company with an FDA approved drug that's endorsed by physicians so far. The chart is clearly a mess, which is indicative of no big buyers supporting the story...at least for now. Simply put, a stock that recently traded from about $30 to $14 now is not typical of a stock with average price targets in the $50's.
I realize you can't base your investment thesis on a buyout, but considering your capital raise point, why aren't some of the bigger players circling around this company, esp. since the competitor was acquired? That would certainly eliminate the expenses overhang.... Opinion?
So no one has any comments? If all the other analysts feel so strong about RLYP's earning potential, then why aren't they coming out with notes refuting Morgan Stanley's bearish thesis?
Average analyst price targets over $50, the drug works, the drug is FDA approved, their direct competitor was acquired with no FDA approval, and yet RLYP's stock is torched at every opportunity. I used to own this from $13 to about $19, then missed the run to $30. Now today it may open in the $14's...It can't just be because of their quarterly report...Everyone knows a new biotech has expenses to launch drugs....And Morgan Stanley's bearish thesis can't trump (no pun intended) 5 other analysts, right? What am I missing?
Rookie question, but a fair one. The stock was red the other day when the market was up over 250 points. But the last two days, the Dow tape was down over 200 two days in a row, and SWHC was green. The point is some stocks don't follow the market. On a related note, RGR's earnings were good, so this should bode well for SWHC going forward.....in fact they're already up in after hours tonight. Good luck to all.
due to "material weakness in internal controls." After doing the research on this disclosure, I've determined it's not a good thing, therefore I'm selling my shares tomorrow morning.
The chart looks good right now. Oprah is a marketing machine, a brand. I'm a new long, and I'll keep adding on any dips. WTW has the leverage now to become the preeminent standard for weight loss globally.
Obama has about a good a chance of getting a candidate appointed to the Supreme court during his administration as Warren Buffett does endorsing Donald Trump.
I don't think anyone is "playing" investors. Raise their ask to $26? That's not the way the market works. In today's very volatile market you have to keep this in mind....It's not what a company is reporting for their earnings report, it's how investors/traders trade the stock after the report. Just because the report is good as expected, doesn't necessarily mean the stock will go up. Anyone who has held this stock a long while like the poster below may be eager to sell into any rally, and I think that's what you're seeing now. I'm long the stock, but I'm thinking of selling tomorrow, or after the RGR report, because I believe growth will slow later this year and into 2017, as I don't believe guns are a long term sustainable business model.
Since Jan. 19th it's been almost parabolic, and it may be forming a double top. I have a feeling the stock will fall, regardless of what the ER report is tomorrow evening, because I think the market believes that the firearms manufacturing space revenue is not sustainable. Smith/Wesson SWHC will probably fall as well in sympathy.
The report was good, the chart was not, so you have the bearish option players trying to hold this down. And now as I type, the stock is trading down again. Disappointing, considering the report.
Short covering could even take it higher, unless I'm missing something.
Stocks don't go up or down everyday. RGR was down as well. How do you know a nice report is coming soon? The key to the week will be how RGR's stock trades after their report Weds. evening.
From a news report Friday, Feb. 19:
"Stampede Energy, a privately-held midstream operator, is expected to default on penalty payments after failing to fulfill shipping commitments on a major Texas pipeline, according to sources.
The development is the latest sign of stress in the pipeline sector.
During results calls this month, Magellan Midstream Partners and Plains All American Pipeline spoke of anunnamed troubled client with 10 percent committed capacity on their jointly-owned 300,0000 barrel-per-day BridgeTex pipeline from the Permian Basin to the U.S. Gulf Coast."