If Wall Street thought that this flagship drug had a great chance of approval from the FDA the end of this month, then the stock chart would be showing signs of recent accumulation. That is exactly what is happening....Ever since the panel rejection, the smart money has been accumulating, but don't just take my word, look at the daily chart, as well as the intraday charts.
As for the Wave press release, it's a non starter, because SRPT would be the first mover, and patients of this potentially fatal disease will not wait until at least 2018-2019 for another solution, since SRPT's drug will be on the market shortly after FDA approval.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
After reading everything and anything I could possibly find, including Ms.Woodcock's outspoken history with Sarepta over the past several years, I think everyone now realizes that she has the final say on the FDA decision on May 26.
Obviously this is great news for the patients and SRPT longs. But here's another thought, continuing with my accumulation theory:
SRPT has always wanted to go it alone, and take 100% of what could be a huge market opportunity in the US and Europe. Here's where it gets interesting: Does management take the risk/gamble of accelerated approval and reject the suitors out there, or is there a big player who sees the partnership or acquisition opportunity with SRPT, either with accelerated approval or not? Keep in mind, an FDA rejection May 26 is not a rejection of the drug, it's a rejection of near term accelerated approval. So I think the huge move off the lows from the panel disappointment may be a combination of Joe Edelman's hedge fund and others believing in approval with Janet's help, OR many on the street thinking a partnership could be imminent, even before May 26.....Does anyone else embrace this possible theory?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It's not unusual (apologies to Tom Jones) for traders to sell after the initial gap up, and make an effort to close the gap. I would have been more concerned if it just continued a steady move up from the am, hour after hour on the 60 minute chart, with virtually no profit taking, because you would almost guarantee to have a sharp move down first thing Tues. morning.
When you close the day with an intraday chart slanting down like we did today, you're more than likely to resume the upward move the next trading day, esp. if the previous gap is not filled Tues. morning.
So those long here, I wouldn't be concerned about today's tape at all. We had expected resistance today on the weekly chart near $22, because that 20day ma has been resistance in the past.
By the way, we have some new clowns on the thread now, I think they'll be gone next week. Bottom line, the news today was amazing, the headline risk is gone, and we should gradually move up from here.
I read his "report". Favus is a desperate moron. It should be noted than no one else in the analyst investment universe agrees with him.
the street is now in the process of repricing Lannett's stock price. All technical indicators I follow are turning up. Integration issues with the acquisition will subside, and the revenue will be replaced by new clients. But I think the street may be reacting positively to the generic insulin partnership.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
the overhang on the stock was the financing, not whether or not they'll be a buyout. A buyout would just be icing on the cake. How quickly traders forget that when the IBB and most of the biotechs crashed, the narrative was built that because of market conditions, RLYP would not be able to go the banks or the capital markets. Now that overhang is gone. So the only bank in play now is my bank, where I intend to transfer more money to my brokerage account to buy as many shares as I can in the $14's or $15's.
I think we call agree that what's really pathetic is someone who shorts a biotech with no more than about 2-$3 downside risk, vs. about $25-$30+ upside risk.
It has to be so obvious to everyone that this FDA decision is so political at this point, and not so much about saving lives, and that's sad. An accelerated approval would be nothing more than a severe blow to Farkas' ego......Farkas really needs to get over himself...
in both instances you mention, the stock was trending down, even though it was trading higher than where it is today. So in other words, the smart money was already starting to exit the stock before the press releases. It's still a couple of weeks away, but for now the stock appears to be under accumulation.
To get an interest only provision built into the deal, this explains the higher interest rate. This is exactly what everyone wanted. It's both non-dilutive and buys them time to continue to ramp up scripts while courting suitors. This is clearly a great move.
Anti pharma is a populist campaign approach, nothing more. It's all minutia. Elected officials do not come into office and immediately alter the landscape, we have a checks and balances system. Even the perception of drastically reducing drug prices is misguided.
What is happening now, is the smart money is loading up on profitable, undervalued healthcare stocks like LCI, because the broader economy and the broader markets will more than likely correct again during the summer. This is the safe place to be..., I would advise against shorting a stock that just broke out, unless you're a masochist.
The technical indicators continue to turn up. Yesterday's supply was met with immediate demand, and the trend continues today (Friday). It looks like we could trade close to $24 by as soon as next week.
Go have a glass of wine and some dinner....We're good...This deal is very positive. I can't sit here for now and sift through at last count 18 posts by rumrunner and other shorts. I'll catch up with you guys later and tomorrow.
it's waiting for the FDA decision on the competitor. TBH, either way the decision goes before the end of May for ZP, I think it's a win-win for Relypsa, for several reasons.....
I can tell you this antonio....If this thesis is more than just a remote possibility, which I think it is, it will be reflected in the stock price over the next 3 weeks or so. Accordingly, I would not be surprised to see a move to $24-$25 in the next 3-4 weeks, even without any BO rumors. The more I consider this (an AZN BO), the more it makes perfect sense. The risk for the stock is to the upside, there is very little if any downside risk from here.
So I sat there like a dope a week or two ago, when SRPT was knocked down by the panel, and traded under $7 in pre-market. I was going to pull the trigger, and of course I didn't. So now I'm in, in the $17's until approval. The enormously positive sentiment, bullish news releases, and the daily chart showing signs of some serious accumulation tell me after what, 5 years, Sarepta is finally going to get approved. Even a conditional approval will send this stock into the $30's. Good luck to all.
If I were to bet on an approval and spike in stock price from here, based solely on the chart I would say there will be an issue with the FDA, i.e. no full approval. But with biotechs, it could certainly go either way. It just doesn't look like the street was expecting a full approval. Yesterday was short covering ahead of the announcement, in my opinion. So my bet is the FDA will seek more information, and the stock will fall back to the $16 range or lower.
Call me crazy, but I'm playing the common, and options Nick. I just cannot even imagine the FDA completely closing the door on this drug; it doesn't make sense, so therefore the upside is practically unlimited, and the downside is minimal, in my view.