It sounds very positive to me:
Mizuho analyst Irina Koffler is re-evaluating her Underperform rating and $12 PT on Relypsa (NASDAQ: RLYP) after AZN announced receipt of a CRL for its ZS-9 zirconium silicate NDA, with a delay that they expect to persist well into 2017.
The CRL was attributed to pre-approval manufacturing deficiencies along with submission of additional data ahead of the NDA that required more review time. Koffler hypothesizes that this could have been the human drug-drug interaction data on the ZS-9 molecule, which Relypsa submitted post-approval on Veltassa, while the manufacturing issue is more difficult to predict.
"We previously indicated that this outcome represents the best possible scenario for Relypsa as it gives it more time to gain traction in the market as first-mover and increases the likelihood of takeout interest in the name," Koffler said.
"That said, we still view the Veltassa launch trajectory as quite slow and expect the stock to remain relatively range-bound until growth becomes more tangible. Today we expect a strong rebound to the stock towards our $31 takeout valuation and will re-evaluate our rating and PT after speaking with mgmt."
Yes, but think about it adam....The last sentence of your post is important...AZN has already spent about $2.7 Billion on their failed ZS acquisition. They can still focus on oncology longer term.... They cannot recover that money anytime soon, so why not win the entire market share of the drug, rather than potentially allowing another big pharma competitor of AZN to acquire RLYP, ensuring a loss they virtually will never recover from? I would think I'm preaching to the choir......
I can tell you this antonio....If this thesis is more than just a remote possibility, which I think it is, it will be reflected in the stock price over the next 3 weeks or so. Accordingly, I would not be surprised to see a move to $24-$25 in the next 3-4 weeks, even without any BO rumors. The more I consider this (an AZN BO), the more it makes perfect sense. The risk for the stock is to the upside, there is very little if any downside risk from here.
Maybe AZN should consider doubling down at this point, given their disappointment with the ZS CRL and long delay. AZN still has the cash to fund their ongoing acquisition strategy. So acquire RLYP,, their main competitor. Pick up an FDA approved drug with first mover advantage to add to their portfolio, and have the entire multi-billion dollar hyperkalemia market all to themselves. Support Relypsa's launch, marketing effort, sales, etc, adding immediate value and long term accretive revenue. Then if/when ZS is approved, they've got the entire market to themselves.
Think about that. I don't know if anti-trust laws apply here or not, I don't think they will, I'm still checking. I don't use a buyout as my investment thesis or catalyst, but this may make perfect sense. I'm interested to see how others feel about this idea.........
Mango I get that.....but that was 1 day of trading, and remember a lot of people bought at higher levels, and felt this was their chance to break even. I know it makes no sense, but not much in this market does. Think about everything you said in your post, which was a good post, and you'll feel better knowing the street will reward this company now that the headline risk is gone. Traders have to have a longer horizon than 1 day or 1 week.
Your first problem is following Twitter. "Consensus on Twitter there will be more pain ahead." I'm not sure what you, or the people on Twitter are talking about....In case you missed it, the stock was up 9% today. Geeessh.
I don't know if you still have a position or not, but I'm surprised to hear you say this, given the other posts of yours I've read over the past few weeks. Yes, it's possible some large shorts who were burnt with today's news are doubling down, but you can count on them covering early next week. If you get a chance, read my technical take on my thread "I can't believe some of the posts here,", because honestly this is not just my words, it's a textbook take on today's action.
I'm still reading posts here from disappointed longs. Disappointed in what? Does everyone realize Relypsa is the sole player now in a multibillion dollar market opportunity? I mean, potentially our biggest competitor was just told they cannot bring their drug to the market to sell for a long time! This mean Veltessa can ramp up sales, and there's no headline risk! With the solid efficacy results reported the other day, more institutions taking positions, and now today's news about ZS, which is worse than if they received a BB! I just don't get how anyone long this stock can be disappointed.
Anyone who has a time horizon longer than one day is excited about all this great news...I know I am.
Deerfield Management reported a 2 million plus share stake in RLYP in a filing today, even more good news.
It's not unusual (apologies to Tom Jones) for traders to sell after the initial gap up, and make an effort to close the gap. I would have been more concerned if it just continued a steady move up from the am, hour after hour on the 60 minute chart, with virtually no profit taking, because you would almost guarantee to have a sharp move down first thing Tues. morning.
When you close the day with an intraday chart slanting down like we did today, you're more than likely to resume the upward move the next trading day, esp. if the previous gap is not filled Tues. morning.
So those long here, I wouldn't be concerned about today's tape at all. We had expected resistance today on the weekly chart near $22, because that 20day ma has been resistance in the past.
By the way, we have some new clowns on the thread now, I think they'll be gone next week. Bottom line, the news today was amazing, the headline risk is gone, and we should gradually move up from here.
No offense, but your post makes no sense. There are traders who bought this stock in the $13's and $14's, and even the $15's who would like to take their profit today. Why do you and others believe it's shorts? It's not....It's people taking their profit, or some traders selling who bought early this morning over $20, and they don't want to hold. Stop the BS with the "shorts in control" #$%$.
I disagree as well. Shorts will fade the initial move up, in an effort to cover (and go long) at lower prices. The uncertainty is removed, the viability of a stronger competitor is off the table for now, and RLYP should soar as a result. Don't get hung up with today's tape. First off, there are 3 more hours in the day. I think we should be and will be closer to $24-$25 next week.
I think it's absolutely incredible, considering the size and reputation of AZN, that this major issue would arise to delay their approval. Obviously AZN received advice from their clinical experts, attorneys, and anyone else involved, before acquiring ZS. I realize the FDA can be a tough sell, but ZS was supposed to be a no brainer, the favored option on the market, etc. Somehow I think Berens discovered this outcome last week, and hedged his bets accordingly.
This is a huge win for RLYP, and if they do get the label removed anytime soon, you'll really see the stock fly.
Many here called the CRL...Kudos to all, this is so awesome. Now the stakes are even higher for a BO, should RLYP go that route. In the meantime, enjoy!
Level II quotes in AH are not to be trusted, IMHO. Even in trading hours, the bids and asks disappear quickly. That said, I do see several bids in the $16's, but not much at all on the ask side, in fact most of the asks are over $19 and up! Of course as I said it all means nothing until the release, and I'm thinking BB, or other negative news for ZS. However, I don't expect RLYP to trade much over $19-$19.50 tomorrow regardless, and I'll take my $5 profit and run.