and have not doubt their execution was on schedule
-then another 400 mmcf/d in 3rd quarter with cadiz 3 and seneca 4
-then another 400 mmcf/d in 4th quarter with mobley 5 and bluestone 3; plus 50,000 bbls/d of combined ethane at sherwood and mobley and 31,000 bbls/d c3-frac from bluestone
ETP deal provides excellent insight into the value on MWE NE assets going forward. ETP can commit (even if slim margins) to a 400 mmcf/d processing plant and fractionator on only a 25,000 acre to 50,000 acre dedication (I am sure they are also speculating on other volumes); it provides enlightened perspective of the value of MWE's ~8 mm acre dedication and their future value in the NE and when MWE says they have around $1.5 b a year in growth ahead for several years you can see why with ~8 mm acres!
to look forward to if oil spread between brent and wti narrows, etc
Any entity should be for sale for the best price. Best price here is way north of $100 possibly closer to $150 in my back of envelope estimates once you factor in 5 to 10 year (1.5b capital year) growth, 8 mm acre acreage dedication and life of dedicated fields (in excess of 50 years is my guess with multiple horizons and infill drilling in NE), newer age of processor and frac plants, distribution yield-cagr growth, ages of semple and fox, etc etc
10 or more varied reasons why some of the top tier-growth mlp have been so volatile ie
-tax payment selling by etf's,
-some of the mlps like mwe have high institutional ownership so we do not know why they sell, when they do, but suspect some may still be covering plays on oil-gas prices ie big houses still cannot reasonably forecast oil price trends so having to raise cash,
-general concern about cagr growth reduction going forward longer oil and gas prices stay suppressed
-debt level on many of the mlps
-on mwe some concern about capital commitments over next few years (ie mwe has stated they are going to stay a growth mlp),
-like with dpm or ngls concern over unheadged or under-hedged liquids prices,
-like with ngls concern over propane-ethane export levels etc. etc. etc. etc and then some on interest rates
On RMP- why strength
-No debt at IPO-end 1st quarter and ~$450 mm in liquidity
-Only operating gathering in Washington and Greene counties of PA
-when they decide to grow/expand picture may begin change
(side not been wondering they are buyers of MHR Eureka Hunter)
Refiners are a very volitional business and are extremely sensitive to margins between Brent and WTI and WTS and WTI, etc . They have had a run of a couple of good margin years. I am counting on MWE-MPLX being able to distinguish themselves from the MPC refinery business asap and secure their own investment grade credit rating before the WTI-Brent margin shrinks away.
Marcellus has completely revolutionized energy markets around the world and will continue to do so for a couple of decades. Wet ng Burket 400 ft above Marcellus and 1/2 its size should closely mimic Marcellus if not damaged. Speaks loads for M-U G&P's. See iv boards for web reference
ot ot ot thanks for the indulgence everyone but a little nostalgia
ny great great adventure trip. You traveled through my part of world where I have lived, worked in my younger days and which I have extensively traveled. My grandparents emigrated from Italy and ended up working the coal mines and railroads in central Utah when GF could not make it to the California grape orchards due to train he was on being held up by bandits in western Nv. in early 1900's. I was born and raised in Price, Utah which is half way between SLC and G. River, Utah. I graduated from UoU in SLC and also have lived around of Denver and received my CPA in Montana (ie spent a lot of time in Billings, Miles City and Bozeman)
I used to spend a lot of time around Moab in the summers as a teen ie your no. 2 and spent a lot of time traveling for work around your no.1 (Custer was not too smart when you see Little Big Horn) and on road from GR to Denver ie through Rifle. Was actually traveling on a plane from Denver to SLC for work early morning on 9-11 to show some Coal Bed Methane operations at Drunkards Wash, Utah to a Chinese delegation. Had to turn back around and drive back in a rental car to Denver late night of 9-11 in the pitch dark through G. River, Grand Junction and through the Rockies; as air space over my home in far SE Denver (Parker) was being used for Air Force recon flights to NORAD from air bases in central Colorado and my family was pretty much on edge.
A little trivia when you were traveling from Provo, Utah to Price, Utah you passed a plateau called Solider Summit which was a scene filmed for Butch Cassidy and Sundance Kid and then when you traveled from Price, Utah to Green River, Utah you were traveling where Butch and Sundance gang traveled and hid out and the jail scene with Carbon County on door replicated jail in Price Utah. Also not sure if you stopped but one of the best dinosaur queries in the world and many Indian cliff drawings are around central-Price Utah
for ~$1.5b growth capital spend a year for the next 5, (mainly in NE) you can extrapolate they could add 300 bcf/d to 600 bcf/d processing average and a small to mid sized franctionator (they should be able to add that for 5-7 years with size of wet Marcellus, Utica, Rogersville, Burket, etc. etc
Ohio Energy Inc.
Here's why Utica shale heavyweight MarkWest keeps growing
Jun 19, 2015, 12:41pm EDT
Columbus Business First
"....David Ledonne, MarkWest’s VP of Utica and Appalachia operations, told me.
But MarkWest also is taking a long view – if prices become more stable and drilling picks back up in a few years, it will be ready.
“We are looking as far ahead as two to three years,” he said.
So, how much more could MarkWest’s expand if necessary?
“I’d love to be able to tell you, but I’m now allowed,” Ledonne said from the company's new administrative building in Cadiz.
The downturn has allowed MarkWest to stop playing catch-up. Even today, many wells in the area are drilled but not completed.
When the Ohio shale industry was booming, the most common problem expressed by drillers was a lack of infrastructure to transport and process the oil and gas.
Today MarkWest is pacing itself to match producers’ drilling schedules.
“There was a little lag time initially. Now that we’ve seen a slowdown because of market dynamics we’re seeing ourselves in a pretty good spot,” he said.
Ledonne, like most in the industry, sees opportunity for growth if the ethane cracker in Belmont County is built (two others in Pennsylvania and West Virginia could be constructed, too). It could be a “huge impact” for MarkWest, he said, if the company becomes one of the companies that provides some of the natural gas feedstock for the cracker plant, which will be run by a Thai-based company called PTT Global Chemical Public Company Ltd. and Japan’s Marubeni Corp.
“It’s a new source of opportunity for the producers to supply ethane from gas we’re processing,” he said.
for of all stakeholders but primarily the unit holder in a non gp mlp like mwe. Most unitholders/investors forget to look at the terminal value. If you hold mwe till the end (I wished we all could live that long) it is not worth anymore than the NPV of all its distribution to the unit holders and maybe a little cash after of abandonment costs. LP unit holders tax impact should not be a primary concern of the mlp. That is up to unit holder as the unti holder can enter and exit anytime they want. .
-$150 is too conservative. (Remember they have got to payback the debt someday and abandon the assets so it reduces NPV from operations). $150 is my current NPV back of the envelope calculation ie the further out you go from today the less the NPV ie mwe net future cash flow and our distributions have little NPV value after 15-20 years out so even if they go negative NPV after 15-20 years with debt payback and abandonment costs the impact is not material to today but as you get closer to terminal value time it is still there. If we had their cash inflow and out flow tables, equity offerings and debt offerings and payback schedules for the next 50 years we could apply an expected COC and be more precise; so for now I can stick with $150 and not feel too bad.
lower yield after merger and npv of the 3.37 (3.37) vs. dist growth NPV few years down the road of any entity. lower yield and 3.37 can be yield up traded after merger eom
following should be within 1 or 2 cents as depends on what 29% means for Nov 2015 actual paid distribution, but based on mplx merger disclosures of 29-25-25-20-20 should be approx:
(I follow distribution paid as that is the cash in my account)
paid nov 2015 .47, paid feb 2016 .50
2016 dist paid=====2017 dist paid====2018 dist paid====2019 dist paid
2016 dist earned===2017 dist earned===2018 dist earned===2019 earned
ball appears to be no theory anymore.
Their new partner NAVB is in the pre IND filing stage. First test was on the delivery mechanism which succeed in 5 humans.
Then using MT-1001 dox application on human tissue samples showed little up take in non diseased cells. Testing done by one the leading HIV experts Dr. Michael McGrath.
Please go to NAVB and listen to at lest the first 30 minutes of their July 7 presentation on results in KS/HIV human tissues
Early NAV3-12 study results on 5 patients is Til/Manocept entered both TAMs and cancer cells and recycled-entering cells for programmed cell death (implosion-apoptosis) is what is desired not explosion (croses).
dosing number and TAMS-cancer cells entry and recycling in patients around 0:22.00
criticalness of implosion vs explosion around 0:23.55:00
results of MT 1001 in human tissues several places in the presentation with 75% to 85% kill rate after 24 hours 100% after that with little uptake to non diseased cells-never been done before.
obviously combining transporter and conjugate in human IND trials will be the final test but so far so good
Expect IND filing this fall
it is counter balancing. helps mwe during low liquids prices ie capital available from a refiner who gets price advantage of differential in WTI-Brent now; then later when differential contracts MPC will benefit from MWE liquids prices, etc
IV MLP and Bry message boards
Msg 54674 of 54675 at 9/3/2015 7:29:41 PM by
chrx sorry thumbs down was supposed to be thumbs up. i was using smart phone and human thumb was too big, again. I am going to post a response on a new thread as I have a different take
see KMI UMTP post would be my speculation as mwe will be a capital contributor