vnr has a much more conservative calculation of distribution coverage than the other e&p mlps (except maybe lgcy). it has to do with the way they classify a greater proportion of capital as maintenance( appears to me overly conservative) than the other mlps thus presenting more conservative DCF coverage ratio
B&W, MWE has basically used all of their 2112 and 2013 ATM's ($2 b in total) and as of June 2014 $440 mm or 1/3 of 2014 atm. also of a side note EMG may sell its July 2013/2014 converted units against the ATM which could theoretically nearly another$300 mm to $600 mm, so if EMG as been using ATM and MWE a small amount say $100 mm 65% to 90% could been used up. My original messages intent was saying they are planing for 2015 should start on it soon. I would imagine when they are within $100 mm of the $1.2 b (they and EMG combined) which will give us our first clue if they have pre funded 2015 and will see another S-3 for another ATM soon depending on what EMG has done
"All of the Partnership’s Class B units were issued to and are held by M&R MWE Liberty, LLC, an affiliate of EMG, as part of the Partnership’s December 31, 2011 acquisition of the non-controlling interest in MarkWest Liberty Midstream & Resources, L.L.C. (“MarkWest Liberty Midstream”). Approximately four million Class B units converted to common units on July 1, 2014. The remaining Class B units will convert to common units on a one-for-one basis in three equal installments beginning on July 1, 2015 and each of the next two anniversaries of such date. After the units are converted to common units, M&R MWE Liberty, LLC may sell common units as part of the March 2014 ATM program. These converted units will participate in the distributions declared on July 24, 2014."
jdm only to read. if you are on investorvillage, which buy the way has a free membership offering, would be glad to PM you my thoughts
oxymoron questions at best
It will be tied to price ($80 to 90 for an extended period), slow down in volume traded and view on which way to best way to sell ATM at high price, lower volume more exaggerated price volatility or low price, higher volume less exaggerated price volatility
wow smart phone typing did not work well.
several reasons not sell now. should be hearing on kmp/mwe jv anytime according to kmp. Also reallocation in amlp will bring on new money but I do still expect price to sell down after amlp re allocation settles down just like this years atm volatility. ie raising $.5 b to $.8 b in atm equity
several reasons not sell now . should be hearing on kmp/mwe jv anytime according to kmp. Also reallocation in amlp will bring on new money but Ido expect price to sell doem when a starts kust like this year
I used words imagine and studying. If I was CFO I would be. They start ordering for 2015 in mid 2014 (and long lead time even earlier) so why wait to fund when you are paying deposits, etc now and price is at this lofty level. An no I am not a seller at this level. Barring international/an economic breakdown MWE still should have a lot of legs with their growth outlook
Which means a sell off until 2015 ATM completed
jbc I have first hand knowledge of San Juan. San Juan CBM wells have the strongest overall CBM mechanisms along with strong water drive of any U.S cbm areas. PRB along with some Kansas and Ok areas are on low end. Raton and Drunkards wash are in middle and Black Warrior is just below mid. Also when ng prices improve you will see restart of down space drilling in San Jaun. It is a great CBM and ng field. Yes there is P&A liability on all oil and gas fields but again PRB was at low end of CBM mechanism so could not withstand low ng prices.
see mlp investorvillage message board
Msg 40882 of 40882 at 8/27/2014 7:01:53 PM by
Kaiser going after VNR
Today we added Short $VNR to our Best Ideas list. Full report to subs next week. This company is worth a small fraction of the current px
strong volume suggests combination of all three
ny some others with higher yield also showing some yield compression. look at cmlp as an example, a mid 7.00 yielder with over double the trading volume today with no news. apl another higher yielder also showing some volume strength last few days (some maybe from upgrade). probably still individual investors and some institutions deleveraging from kmi group but as you speculated may not yet be amlp adjustment
with the outlook potential I described and the kmp/epb/kmr investors cash available I think you may see some near term yield compression on cmlp
The San Juan Basin as a whole decline historically was around 4% to 4.5 %. That county graph may be representative of the whole basin as the decline has accelerated due to low gas prices which reduced infill drilling. Take a look at the smoothed decline curves through 2012. When gas prices recover the production decline may be reversible and becasue around half of the ng in the basin is CBM an experienced (short period) CBM producer such as ARP could do well. Also oil production was actually up in the San Juan Basin in mid 2013 and should recover more with Mancos Shale drilling (will be curious if Mancos goes with the southern basin BP assets or if BP is retaining) .
will be hard for arp to resist bidding with raton, etc under belt
Based on last quarter cc I would specuzlte positive momentum will not be sustainable until early 2015 when they demonstrate sustainable coverage and distribution increases. If you believe they can do both then now is the time to buy
2 plants totally 400 mm cf/d plus 60,000 bbls processing/deeth pretty healthy
they paid June Aug 14
"Atlas Resource Partners, L.P. (ARP) today declared an increased monthly distribution for the month of June 2014 of $0.1966 per common unit, or $2.36 per common unit on an annualized basis. This $0.1966 per common unit distribution represents an approximate 2% increase from the May 2014 distribution, as well as a 9% increase year over year. The June 2014 distribution is payable Thursday, August 14, 2014 to holders of record as of Wednesday, August 6, 2014".
Very informative post. can go to it or Google tile up to parenthesis
Msg 40811 of 40811 at 8/25/2014 2:44:05 PM from investorvillage mlp board by
ROYT and BBEP
ROYT up (over 6%) I believe on this