combination of two possibilities-first lpg/ngl line out of service after accident so waiting what lost revenue exposure is and secondly new mlp out next week so may be seeing some re ordering by brokers. can read more on investorvillage mlp board on an excellent post by jazbrokr. free to read and was free to register a week or so ago. iv is best mlp board available
hint goldman has new mlp fund coming out next week. investorvillage is free to read and was recently free to register
CME Group Announces Record Trading Volume for Coal Futures
LONDON, Nov. 18, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- CME Group, the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, today announced a monthly volume record for its coal futures of 171,988 contracts in October compared to 160,496 in September 2013, the last record month for this contract. Within this, Coal (API2) CIF ARA (ARGUS-McCloskey) Futures reached a record of 125,247 contracts traded in October compared to 113,899 in September 2013. The second largest contract within the coal contract complex is the Coal (API4) FOB Richards Bay (ARGUS-McCloskey) Futures which traded 45,891 contracts in October compared to 45,660 in September 2013. Open Interest continued to climb with a 2% increase overall from September.
All the Asian CME Group coal markets saw month-on-month increases in volume, with 1,840 contracts traded across the Coal (API 5) fob Newcastle Australian (Argus/McCloskey), Indonesian Coal (McCloskey sub-bituminous) and Coal (API 8) cfr South China (Argus/McCloskey) Futures. Coal (API 5) fob Newcastle (Argus/McCloskey) also had its highest volume month with 75 contracts traded.
"Our coal complex is in a strong position right now as an increasing number of international market participants choose CME Group as the preferred venue for managing risk in the global coal market," said Martin Fraenkel, Managing Director of Energy at CME Group.
fyi posted question on ngls board also
from Nov 15 MWE presentation
GC (Joint Venture Fractionation)
"Proposed JV fractionation facility with a "third party that has existing facilities in Mont Belvieu."
You can see topic discussed twice on MWE board. ETP has no major marketing outlet.. EPD ruled out for a number of reasons such as competing Atex line from same origin, recently teamed with Western, etc. . Exxon has a plastics plant and P66 has some downstream plants nearby but again no major marketing outlets like NGLS; so many on MWE are putting their bets on NGLS being the Mt Belvieu frac partner. Any thoughts. insights or rumors here
Hi arb. I think the next limiting factor is those who ship/market value products of Mt Mt. Belvieu. EPD and Targa and P66 (old Conoco/Phillips owns 22.5 percent of Gulf Coast Fractionators in Mont Belvieu, Texas. Phillips 66 also owns 12.5 percent of the Enterprise Mont Belvieu Fractionator), seem to have the best shipping/marketing options (oneok and etp/rgp do not seem to have the same post fractionation marketing opportunities as the other 3 and then there is ExxonMobil (platic plant in Mt Belvieu). The Atex line and KMP/MWE will be in competition for y grade, plus Western Gas and EPD recently partnered in a fractionation plant at Mt Belvieu so that may eliminate EPD and Western so it appears it could come down to Targa (Ngls) or P66 or maybe even Exxon to feed its plastics, etc
"...That was the idea behind the Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) proposed Eastern Gulf Crude Access Pipeline (EGCAP). This pipeline project planned to reverse the existing Trunkline pipeline from Patoka, IL (near Chicago) to Boyce, LA and include a new 160-mile 30-inch lateral from Boyce to St James last week ETP announced at their 3Q 2013 earnings call that they had not yet received sufficient shipper interest to move ahead with the St James lateral part of this project – delaying the EGCAP by-pass option that could have relieved pressure on the Houston region.
So apparently, for the moment at least, crude shippers are not concerned enough about getting their crude through a potential traffic jam in Houston that they are willing to commit to the EGCAP “by-pass” option. Our sense is that for now they prefer to keep their options open while the Gulf Coast crude distribution system settles down. After all there are plenty of rail routes into the eastern Gulf Coast that provide alternatives to bypass Texas. And besides, if the longer-term crude traffic south from Chicago really warrants an express lane then why not reverse part of the huge (1.2 MMb/d) Capline pipeline that already runs from Patoka to St James?
These days it seems producers and shippers moving crude definitely prefer short-term flexibility of transport and destinations rather than firm long-term commitments. Optionality may cost a little more today but it saves feeling foolish if you make the wrong long-term bet...."
believe me the drilling contractors do not talk to other business unit of cvx. they basically on take directions from the cvx drilling supervisor who tends to be focused only on drill baby drill, that said they are supposed to have pre checked pipeline maps of the area and the pipes are supposed to be marked every so many feet on the physical sight. tells me someone did not walk the sight pre drilling nor look at the map or maybe the pipe was not where the map showed
"...Citi downgraded coal producers Consol Energy Inc. and Walter Energy Inc. to "Neutral" from "Buy" and reduced its estimate of Consol's 2014 earnings to 79 cents per share from $1.25 per share on weaker pricing and an asset sale. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect Consol to earn $1.25 per share next year.
Citi lowered Alpha Natural Resources Inc. to "Sell" from "Neutral," citing the company's "deteriorating earnings fundamentals." ...
"..."We expected supply reductions to drive a price recovery but that has not been the case," Citi analyst Brian Yu wrote in a note to clients, "and weak spot markets could lead to a flat or down" prices. He said production limits had failed to produce higher prices, and falling spot prices made a rebound in the first quarter less likely. ..."
"...Analysts expected reduced production in the U.S. to boost prices for metallurgical coal, but that hasn't happened yet.
And demand for thermal coal, which is burned to produce energy, has been hurt by utilities switching to cheap natural gas. The long-term outlook for thermal coal is dimmed by measures to slow climate change. On Friday, the Obama administration pushed ahead — over the coal industry's objections — with tough regulations to limit heat-trapping carbon pollution from new power plants.
Coal industry supporters in Congress warned that if the regulations go into effect, they'll lead to job losses in the coal industry and higher electricity prices.
On Monday, Citigroup issued a report for commodities and said that the outlook for metallurgical coal, which is used in steel making, "looks more precarious" with spot prices falling. ..."
Electricity use nationwide has hit a plateau, according to EIA. AEP says will only get new power from wind and solar
Although I am not a customer of AEP, they might have some similar program. Our utilities (Pepco and BGE) have "Peak rewards" program that gives you a bonus payment if you agree to be switched off during the moments of peak demand in summer. It is kind of cycling on and off that lasts between 1 PM and 6 PM. The utilities say that it is cheaper for them to administer these programs and pay bonuses than build new power plants and transmission line
ays if you "expect" a distribution cut why would you stay heavily invested? i think the distributions carry a high risk but there are other companies out there who have recovered by re inventing their asset base, most recently etp and now ns at least for a couple more years and pvr tried but did not succeed so are being merged with rgp and that is what nrp s is in the process of. the question jarad touched on is can they do it efficiently and fast enough. if they stay away from coal, which is always tempting as that is their foundation, but is so volatile as in tva announcement last week; they may pull it off
Joint Venture Fractionation
Proposed JV fractionation facility with a "third party that has existing facilities in Mont Belvieu."
so may impact apl and epd to some extent and dcp which is a jv of spectra and p66. (sandhills still not dropped down to dpm)
Pipeline is operated by majority (80%) owner Chevron Corporation
Common carrier Y-grade NGL transportation pipeline begins in New Mexico and West Texas and transports liquids to Mont Belvieu
Pipeline is connected to Enterprise Products Partners, L.P. Rockies MAPL system for further NGL supply
Provides stable, fixed fee cash flow with no direct primary commodity exposure
Provides stable, fixed fee cash flow with no direct primary commodity exposure
some of lpg comes out of barrnet, so possibility the north easterly leg may still be open with a much smaller portion of the 244,000 bl/d still being transported. hope the partnership had business interruption insurance
arb thanks for the info. if one searches "West Texas LPG Pipeline Limited Partnership-tarriffs" it will show all of the origination points for the line. it looks like where it exploded may be some where at the midpoint after gathering most of its gas and just before after it turns south to mt belvieu. the article I read said it had a twin line next to it that was still flowing to help cool the ruptured line so maybe just the lpg is out of service and not the y grade (apl calls it a ngl line and not just a lpg line so I am hoping there are more than one line ) we can only hope it has two products flowing thru the partnerhsip (ps this is the risk issue we were discussing on the mwe board the other day when we saw the fine line mwe was walking on their dcf for the couple of issues they had last quarter).
appreciate your time , effort and analysis. I thought i heard a rumor they were in partners to bid on the cnx mines that went to Massey, but maybe I was dreaming, but if so that means they still are not out of the coal business.
Putting that aside a couple of ideas
1- nrp can monetize their brp leases pretty quickly if needed by packaging in mass but not sure they want to or they would be moving faster already
2-When I was involved in M&A, one of the key criteria we looked at was the age of the sr executives. their entire leadership is at the age where they may want to monetize their investments for their heirs as the succession line looks thin from what can be seen from the outside; so if that is the case then merging with a KMP, etc may be a possible step.
3-Lastly they said they have $100 mm cash and line of credit to continue to make acquisitions so the the most obvious case may be a number of bit size acquisition over the next couple of years to keep cash flow flat with distributions.