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Vanguard Natural Resources, LLC Message Board

moneyonomics 49 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Jan 16, 2010
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  • Reply to


    by lessbs 19 hours ago
    moneyonomics moneyonomics 14 hours ago Flag

    my thought is resolution to dcp will be somewhat complex as taking so long so may be re valuing many of properties and working with bankers and investment houses

  • Reply to

    UBS downgrade

    by lessbs Jun 25, 2015 12:17 PM
    moneyonomics moneyonomics Jul 22, 2015 9:52 AM Flag

    DCP BK is a none starter, period

  • Reply to

    closed my arbitrage on this and eroc today

    by rlbeard6734 Jun 3, 2015 2:38 PM
    moneyonomics moneyonomics Jul 11, 2015 11:22 PM Flag

    also just happened to look hear. not in any e&p's for the near term. if they continue to follow trend of post 1985 uptrend in ^XOI and oil prices could start uptrend in nest little while (see post 189886 on investorvillage bry board-no cost to read and post there). OT Back on navb also look at their collaboration with Bind ( in nano and co founded by Robert Langer)

  • Reply to

    closed my arbitrage on this and eroc today

    by rlbeard6734 Jun 3, 2015 2:38 PM
    moneyonomics moneyonomics Jul 11, 2015 11:14 PM Flag

    rl if you are willing to look at brli take a look at navb. do not use yahoo board but use investorvillage navb board for some ideas

  • moneyonomics moneyonomics Jul 3, 2015 9:43 PM Flag

    attaching the accurin to the manocept backbone for macrophage targeting has exciting potential. go to investorsvillage and go to navb board for some informed discussion. can also use the bind message board. as an option. you do not have to be a paying member to read and post and can attache web references, etc.

  • Macrophage Therapeutics Reports Data Demonstrating a Manocept™ Drug Conjugate Induces Apoptosis in CD206 Positive Kaposi’s Sarcoma and Tumor Associated Macrophages

    - Results demonstrated programmed cell death in KS tumor cells and anti-HIV activity -

    - Reinforces therapeutic potential of targeting activated macrophages via the CD206 receptor -

  • and have not doubt their execution was on schedule

    -then another 400 mmcf/d in 3rd quarter with cadiz 3 and seneca 4
    -then another 400 mmcf/d in 4th quarter with mobley 5 and bluestone 3; plus 50,000 bbls/d of combined ethane at sherwood and mobley and 31,000 bbls/d c3-frac from bluestone

  • Reply to

    Drop today ~~

    by accountforthis64 Jun 25, 2015 4:04 PM
    moneyonomics moneyonomics Jun 26, 2015 12:14 AM Flag

    chrx thanks for asking see comments on separate note

  • Reply to

    Drop today ~~

    by accountforthis64 Jun 25, 2015 4:04 PM
    moneyonomics moneyonomics Jun 26, 2015 12:06 AM Flag

    10 or more varied reasons why some of the top tier-growth mlp have been so volatile ie
    -fund re-balancing,
    -tax payment selling by etf's,
    -some of the mlps like mwe have high institutional ownership so we do not know why they sell, when they do, but suspect some may still be covering plays on oil-gas prices ie big houses still cannot reasonably forecast oil price trends so having to raise cash,
    -general concern about cagr growth reduction going forward longer oil and gas prices stay suppressed
    -debt level on many of the mlps
    -on mwe some concern about capital commitments over next few years (ie mwe has stated they are going to stay a growth mlp),
    -like with dpm or ngls concern over unheadged or under-hedged liquids prices,
    -like with ngls concern over propane-ethane export levels etc. etc. etc. etc and then some on interest rates

    On RMP- why strength
    -No debt at IPO-end 1st quarter and ~$450 mm in liquidity
    -Only operating gathering in Washington and Greene counties of PA
    -when they decide to grow/expand picture may begin change
    (side not been wondering they are buyers of MHR Eureka Hunter)

  • Reply to


    by racehorse9 Jun 23, 2015 11:09 AM
    moneyonomics moneyonomics Jun 24, 2015 9:41 PM Flag

    npv is what it is. the next 10-15 years carry most the of the NPV.

    While they are growing over next 5-10 years they must continue to borrow and issue new units to get grow so when one says $150 over the next 5-10 years that is after diluting with new units and new borrowings that pay interest and cash distributions paid. Using your numbers of $28.28 for 6 years (assume that is npv for now) in distributions over next 6 years and add that to $150 you are at $178 unit and extrapolate $28.28 as flat for 4 more years $47 for 10 years so $197 or ~ $200 unit after 10 years is what unitholder received. ie when mwe pays distribution they are using assets of the company which is a reduction in NPV so must add back to get value unit holder received

  • Reply to


    by racehorse9 Jun 23, 2015 11:09 AM
    moneyonomics moneyonomics Jun 24, 2015 8:04 PM Flag

    your questions
    who for:

    for of all stakeholders but primarily the unit holder in a non gp mlp like mwe. Most unitholders/investors forget to look at the terminal value. If you hold mwe till the end (I wished we all could live that long) it is not worth anymore than the NPV of all its distribution to the unit holders and maybe a little cash after of abandonment costs. LP unit holders tax impact should not be a primary concern of the mlp. That is up to unit holder as the unti holder can enter and exit anytime they want. .

    -$150 is too conservative. (Remember they have got to payback the debt someday and abandon the assets so it reduces NPV from operations). $150 is my current NPV back of the envelope calculation ie the further out you go from today the less the NPV ie mwe net future cash flow and our distributions have little NPV value after 15-20 years out so even if they go negative NPV after 15-20 years with debt payback and abandonment costs the impact is not material to today but as you get closer to terminal value time it is still there. If we had their cash inflow and out flow tables, equity offerings and debt offerings and payback schedules for the next 50 years we could apply an expected COC and be more precise; so for now I can stick with $150 and not feel too bad.

  • Reply to


    by racehorse9 Jun 23, 2015 11:09 AM
    moneyonomics moneyonomics Jun 24, 2015 4:30 PM Flag

    Any entity should be for sale for the best price. Best price here is way north of $100 possibly closer to $150 in my back of envelope estimates once you factor in 5 to 10 year (1.5b capital year) growth, 8 mm acre acreage dedication and life of dedicated fields (in excess of 50 years is my guess with multiple horizons and infill drilling in NE), newer age of processor and frac plants, distribution yield-cagr growth, ages of semple and fox, etc etc

  • Reply to

    money reply solamente

    by nymarv10956 Jun 20, 2015 9:43 PM
    moneyonomics moneyonomics Jun 22, 2015 10:05 AM Flag

    take out not

  • Reply to

    money reply solamente

    by nymarv10956 Jun 20, 2015 9:43 PM
    moneyonomics moneyonomics Jun 22, 2015 10:04 AM Flag

    We loved the Torquay area of England and the beaches there (just SW of Cotswold), but believe it our not I (we) loved much of London itself (maybe not some of east side so much but rest of it was great) as our office was just off of the Strand almost by the Themes and I remember seeing Big Ben, etc everyday from office windows

  • Reply to

    money reply solamente

    by nymarv10956 Jun 20, 2015 9:43 PM
    moneyonomics moneyonomics Jun 21, 2015 11:51 PM Flag

    wow some travel congratulations . I lived in England for two years did some but that much traveling,

  • moneyonomics moneyonomics Jun 21, 2015 12:43 PM Flag

    for ~$1.5b growth capital spend a year for the next 5, (mainly in NE) you can extrapolate they could add 300 bcf/d to 600 bcf/d processing average and a small to mid sized franctionator (they should be able to add that for 5-7 years with size of wet Marcellus, Utica, Rogersville, Burket, etc. etc

    Ohio Energy Inc.
    Here's why Utica shale heavyweight MarkWest keeps growing
    Jun 19, 2015, 12:41pm EDT
    Tom Knox
    Columbus Business First

    "....David Ledonne, MarkWest’s VP of Utica and Appalachia operations, told me.

    But MarkWest also is taking a long view – if prices become more stable and drilling picks back up in a few years, it will be ready.

    “We are looking as far ahead as two to three years,” he said.

    So, how much more could MarkWest’s expand if necessary?

    “I’d love to be able to tell you, but I’m now allowed,” Ledonne said from the company's new administrative building in Cadiz.

    The downturn has allowed MarkWest to stop playing catch-up. Even today, many wells in the area are drilled but not completed.

    When the Ohio shale industry was booming, the most common problem expressed by drillers was a lack of infrastructure to transport and process the oil and gas.

    Today MarkWest is pacing itself to match producers’ drilling schedules.

    “There was a little lag time initially. Now that we’ve seen a slowdown because of market dynamics we’re seeing ourselves in a pretty good spot,” he said.

    Ledonne, like most in the industry, sees opportunity for growth if the ethane cracker in Belmont County is built (two others in Pennsylvania and West Virginia could be constructed, too). It could be a “huge impact” for MarkWest, he said, if the company becomes one of the companies that provides some of the natural gas feedstock for the cracker plant, which will be run by a Thai-based company called PTT Global Chemical Public Company Ltd. and Japan’s Marubeni Corp.

    “It’s a new source of opportunity for the producers to supply ethane from gas we’re processing,” he said.

  • Reply to

    money reply solamente

    by nymarv10956 Jun 20, 2015 9:43 PM
    moneyonomics moneyonomics Jun 21, 2015 12:06 AM Flag

    ot ot ot thanks for the indulgence everyone but a little nostalgia

    ny great great adventure trip. You traveled through my part of world where I have lived, worked in my younger days and which I have extensively traveled. My grandparents emigrated from Italy and ended up working the coal mines and railroads in central Utah when GF could not make it to the California grape orchards due to train he was on being held up by bandits in western Nv. in early 1900's. I was born and raised in Price, Utah which is half way between SLC and G. River, Utah. I graduated from UoU in SLC and also have lived around of Denver and received my CPA in Montana (ie spent a lot of time in Billings, Miles City and Bozeman)

    I used to spend a lot of time around Moab in the summers as a teen ie your no. 2 and spent a lot of time traveling for work around your no.1 (Custer was not too smart when you see Little Big Horn) and on road from GR to Denver ie through Rifle. Was actually traveling on a plane from Denver to SLC for work early morning on 9-11 to show some Coal Bed Methane operations at Drunkards Wash, Utah to a Chinese delegation. Had to turn back around and drive back in a rental car to Denver late night of 9-11 in the pitch dark through G. River, Grand Junction and through the Rockies; as air space over my home in far SE Denver (Parker) was being used for Air Force recon flights to NORAD from air bases in central Colorado and my family was pretty much on edge.

    A little trivia when you were traveling from Provo, Utah to Price, Utah you passed a plateau called Solider Summit which was a scene filmed for Butch Cassidy and Sundance Kid and then when you traveled from Price, Utah to Green River, Utah you were traveling where Butch and Sundance gang traveled and hid out and the jail scene with Carbon County on door replicated jail in Price Utah. Also not sure if you stopped but one of the best dinosaur queries in the world and many Indian cliff drawings are around central-Price Utah


    “….Open Season”) for potential development of a pipeline system (“UMTP System”) designed to transport propane, butanes, natural gasoline, Y-grade, or condensate (“Products”) in batches from
    points of origin in Harrison and Tuscarawas Counties, Ohio to destinations on the Texas Gulf Coast

    Overview of Project
    The UMTP System will include (i) the acquisition and conversion of approximately 964 miles of existing 26”/24” pipeline owned and operated by Tennessee Gas Pipeline Company, LLC (“ TGP”) (an affiliate of Carrier ),…

    Origin Facilities

    The proposed points of origin will be located at the tailgates of The Scio and Hopedale fractionatorsin Harrison County, Ohio, and the tailgate of the Lewis Processing Facility and the Kinder Morgan UMTP tank farmlocated inTuscarawas County, Ohio (collectively the “Origin Points”). The Carrier Storage Facility
    will be connected to the Origin Points via 8 –16” laterals. ...

    ...This Open Season will close at 5:00 p.m. CST on Tuesday, September 15, 2015;..."

  • Marcellus has completely revolutionized energy markets around the world and will continue to do so for a couple of decades. Wet ng Burket 400 ft above Marcellus and 1/2 its size should closely mimic Marcellus if not damaged. Speaks loads for M-U G&P's. See iv boards for web reference

  • moneyonomics moneyonomics Jun 18, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    see KMI UMTP post would be my speculation as mwe will be a capital contributor

12.14+0.22(+1.85%)12:13 PMEDT