jbc I have first hand knowledge of San Juan. San Juan CBM wells have the strongest overall CBM mechanisms along with strong water drive of any U.S cbm areas. PRB along with some Kansas and Ok areas are on low end. Raton and Drunkards wash are in middle and Black Warrior is just below mid. Also when ng prices improve you will see restart of down space drilling in San Jaun. It is a great CBM and ng field. Yes there is P&A liability on all oil and gas fields but again PRB was at low end of CBM mechanism so could not withstand low ng prices.
see mlp investorvillage message board
Msg 40882 of 40882 at 8/27/2014 7:01:53 PM by
Kaiser going after VNR
Today we added Short $VNR to our Best Ideas list. Full report to subs next week. This company is worth a small fraction of the current px
strong volume suggests combination of all three
ny some others with higher yield also showing some yield compression. look at cmlp as an example, a mid 7.00 yielder with over double the trading volume today with no news. apl another higher yielder also showing some volume strength last few days (some maybe from upgrade). probably still individual investors and some institutions deleveraging from kmi group but as you speculated may not yet be amlp adjustment
with the outlook potential I described and the kmp/epb/kmr investors cash available I think you may see some near term yield compression on cmlp
The San Juan Basin as a whole decline historically was around 4% to 4.5 %. That county graph may be representative of the whole basin as the decline has accelerated due to low gas prices which reduced infill drilling. Take a look at the smoothed decline curves through 2012. When gas prices recover the production decline may be reversible and becasue around half of the ng in the basin is CBM an experienced (short period) CBM producer such as ARP could do well. Also oil production was actually up in the San Juan Basin in mid 2013 and should recover more with Mancos Shale drilling (will be curious if Mancos goes with the southern basin BP assets or if BP is retaining) .
will be hard for arp to resist bidding with raton, etc under belt
Based on last quarter cc I would specuzlte positive momentum will not be sustainable until early 2015 when they demonstrate sustainable coverage and distribution increases. If you believe they can do both then now is the time to buy
2 plants totally 400 mm cf/d plus 60,000 bbls processing/deeth pretty healthy
they paid June Aug 14
"Atlas Resource Partners, L.P. (ARP) today declared an increased monthly distribution for the month of June 2014 of $0.1966 per common unit, or $2.36 per common unit on an annualized basis. This $0.1966 per common unit distribution represents an approximate 2% increase from the May 2014 distribution, as well as a 9% increase year over year. The June 2014 distribution is payable Thursday, August 14, 2014 to holders of record as of Wednesday, August 6, 2014".
Very informative post. can go to it or Google tile up to parenthesis
Msg 40811 of 40811 at 8/25/2014 2:44:05 PM from investorvillage mlp board by
ROYT and BBEP
ROYT up (over 6%) I believe on this
Hi ny. As always appreciate having a dialogue with you.
I run the NPV economics on holding a low yielding/high CAGR GP such as ETE vs holding a high yielding MLP such as ETP. I cannot in a reasonable outlook, even up to a 20% growth CAGR vs a 5% growth CAGR, get the NPV to workout in favor of holding the GP vs the holding of the MLP; so I hold ETP instead of ETE. I use a 10 year model and the closer years NPV of the high yielding MLP outweighs the far out years CAGR growth NPV of the GP again even up to 10 years you get the better NPV with the MLP. Now in some cases the ROR is better holding the GP but the NPV is in favor of the MLP. Taking that the next step as to why hold a MLP such as DPM it is the same economics vs holding a GP of an other entity. In MWE and NGLS cases they area balanced NPV with current mid range CAGR growth and mid point current yields and later year high CAGR growth like a GP, so their economics still show a better NPV than low yielding high growth CAGRS. If one is a trader rather than a long term investor the NPV model may switch but that depends on one ability to trade at the best prices, etc.
Just my view
A little much shortened history lesson on great oil and gas fields and how they get better, even after 100 years. The Texas Panhandle natural gas field was one of the first commercial gas/ngl fields to be made commercial. The Texas Panhandle natural gas field was discovered and made initially commercial 1910 to 1920 when Phillips had big discoveries there in oil but their was also a lot of rich gas they did not know what to do with it; so through R&D they developed some of the first ngl extraction plants and took the ngl into the oil flows, but flared a lot of residue and in the meantime literately built thousands and and thousand of miles of gathering lines just he Panhandles of Texas and OK (what you see as part of the dpm/dpc 64,000 miles of lines). They then set out to find a use for the residue and eventually used it in the refinery for fuel, etc. Also eventually Phillips RD got the patent on PVC and you know what they did with the naphtha from the oil/ngls in the refineries.
Now what is the moral to this quick history review, well "great hydrocarbon fields do get better". The Panhandle gas field has been going for around 100 years and still probably has the much remaining resources in gas/ngls and oil. So what does that say for the Marcellus/Utica. I leave it to your estimates, but I venture those field have 100 to 200 years left in them. Obviously none of us will live to see it, but that is the once in a life time venture that MWE mentions all of the time (and few others have put together there) and will survive either in the same name or in another name, but those assets will be there and will get better so those long term holders in MWE have entered into a mufti-generational company/asset investment (or once in a life time) that will long outlive CAGR and DCF and EBITDA goals, but will throw off cash flow for 100 to 200 years gor those with generational horizons. That is why MWE and DPM are the major core to my holdings, (along with NGLS)
DPM/DCP LLC complex is very significant and is the quite giant and will continue to provide CAGR growth for many years to come and yes frac (JV) capacity on gulf and export facility on east coast if only butane for now and they have storage at Sarina-see post form mlp board
Re: Where to put $$-mentioned before take another look at DPM (current yield 5.3%-2014 dist. cagr 7%)
the number of assets sitting on its non publicly traded gp DCP LLC for eventual drop down are significant and include a lot of liquid related assets. The two orgs combined have 64 plants (42 plants and 3 fracs with gp) and 67,500 miles of pipe (52,000 miles with gp) (see slides 3/4 of their recent presentation)
#1 Gas Processor(1) 6.5 tbtu/d (No 1 Permian, Mid-Con and DJ)
#1 NGL Producer(1) 445 mbbl/d
#3 NGL Pipeline Operator(2)
They are a steady ship. They are fairly conservative so I would speculate distribution CAGR growth would generally stay in mid to high single digits, but for a number of years out
Re affirmed in HSD early termination PR
"This combination will result in Breitburn becoming the largest, oil-weighted upstream oil and gas master limited partnership with a pro forma enterprise value of approximately $7.8 billion and current average daily production of approximately 57,300 boe/d. "
I doubt it. Will hurt there day to day workings within the state of CA bureaucracy that they seem to have some relations with.
they also said they were "exploring" the Utica shale
“We are adding highly attractive exploration acreage, where we have impressive well results in the Utica,..."