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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

moneyonomics 114 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 24 minutes ago Member since: Jan 16, 2010
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  • moneyonomics moneyonomics Dec 4, 2014 2:31 PM Flag

    ny and iam thanks for thought out responses. This is why oil will retrace to upward slopping trend line within a year is by speculation

    "BP Estimates The World Has just 53.3 Years Of (easy lift) Oil Left". First response well 54 years is a long time, but with overall decline rates exceeding 4-5% year, Russia cannot take low oil prices for very long and will covertly create havoc, etc in oil producing regions to change the supply outlook, plus new costly offshore and international projects will not get capital funding with the current forward oil curve

  • moneyonomics moneyonomics Dec 4, 2014 2:37 PM Flag

    ye 2013, arp 17% oil and memp 37% oil

  • moneyonomics moneyonomics Dec 4, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    combined bbep/qre 67% production is liquids

  • Reply to

    Saudia Arabia exports to US

    by nymarv10956 Dec 4, 2014 11:40 PM
    moneyonomics moneyonomics Dec 6, 2014 2:53 PM Flag

    Chrx sorry I was on smartphone and posted as klaimr. drill rig reduction came form drilling permits declining by 40% in Oct/Nov and re positioning to sweet spots. It was from a web site I cannot find now but using reduced rigs from permits forecast and where drilling is re positioned taking place in sweet spots is where the 9.4 came from

  • Reply to

    current outlook and thought

    by jimjones62 Dec 5, 2014 2:15 AM
    moneyonomics moneyonomics Dec 6, 2014 4:03 PM Flag

    my speculation is with bankers seeing what we are seeing in why price is down, i think they will be a little more patient in withholding an new money than most think as the oil is still in the ground and oil prices (in my over 30 year involvement in oil and gas has always eventually reverted to the mean trend (which by the way is an uptrend and has been for some time) and as of yet I can see no reason for it not to revert to the mean trend this time as very large intensive up front capital projects worldwide will be delayed not offsetting the non us decline curve but smaller quick cash US projects will continue to be drilled.

  • as oil is still in the ground and eventually will see oil price revert to the upward slowing mean trend line.

    Also remember as the price oil goes down bbeps coverage ratio should go up as their co2 flood should be tied to the oil price.

  • moneyonomics moneyonomics Dec 6, 2014 8:42 PM Flag

    the latest study i have is 2012 for the state of Wyoming so using it as a proxy the $ costs for co2 can run from 15% to 50% of the total oil revenue generated depending on the field. Here is the formula used in the Wyoming study to calculated the per mcf cost of co2 tied to oil price,

    Economic Impacts
    In 2011 the EIA reported an average first-purchase price of $83.45/barrel for Wyoming, and the operational supply cost of purchased CO2 was assumed to be $2.17/Mcf.(2) This leads to an estimated value of $550,138,016 for the incremental oil, and an annual cost of $175,043,050 to supply the 221 MMcfd of CO2 purchases
    .
    (2) Assumes that CO2 is tied at 2% of the oil price plus a $0.50 transportation charge. i.e. $0.50 + 2% X $83.45 = $2.17/Mcf.

    You can search this title to find the study and cost differences per field

    The Economic Contribution of CO2 Enhanced
    Oil Recovery in Wyoming’s Economy
    Benjamin R. Cook, PhD*† University of Wyoming
    Department of Economics & Finance
    Enhanced Oil Recovery Institute
    June 2012

    Side note: In addition to Co2 purchase costs there is also a co2 recycling costs that adds around 2/3 more to cost of co2 plus in a high h2s field there could be amine treating required in addition to purchase and recycling costs

  • moneyonomics moneyonomics Dec 6, 2014 8:52 PM Flag

    forgot to mention in study interviews of Wyoming operators several indicated the 2% was too high for them so could be lower based on vintage of supply contract

  • moneyonomics moneyonomics Dec 7, 2014 6:46 PM Flag

    cheap you are very close in you gas to oil ratio.

    if you go to search and type in "kinder margan morrow model" you can access an excel spreadsheet with all of the physical and financial parameters kinder morgan estimated for the morrow unit. whether all of the original parameters still apply I do not know but it is a good starting point

    gas to oil ratio is

    Net CO2 Utilization 6.0 mcf/stb

  • moneyonomics moneyonomics Dec 8, 2014 12:24 AM Flag

    its only at the two oklahoma units and approximate ratio of oil uplift to c02 can be eyeballed at the site in graph from search site I posted other day.

    You can search this title to find the study and cost differences per field on morrow. but you must select draft as two pdf files will come up. it was page 16 of "draft" and eyeballing looks like co2 injected is about 2.1 to 2.4 times of incremental oil produced

    The Economic Contribution of CO2 Enhanced
    Oil Recovery in Wyoming’s Economy
    Benjamin R. Cook, PhD*† University of Wyoming
    Department of Economics & Finance
    Enhanced Oil Recovery Institute
    June 2012
    Draft

  • moneyonomics moneyonomics Dec 8, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    hi eb. yes first thing I would recommend announce is a freeze on distribution at current level 2.08. to me that would show discipline and even though some say it would hurt unit price but do not think proportionately much more damage can be done than the nearly 50% hit already taken

  • ConocoPhillips (BBEP) set its 2015 capital budget at $13.5 billion (xxxx), a decrease of 20 9 (xxxx) percent over this year, the Houston (Losd Angleles oil and gas company said Monday.

    That reflects lower spending on major projects, several of which are nearing completion, and deferral of spending on North American unconventional plays.

    Despite the cut, the company expects to produce about 3 (xxxx) percent more in 2015 from continuing operations, -----------

    “We are setting our 2015 capital budget at a level that we believe is prudent given the current environment,” said Ryan Lance (Hal Washburn) , chairman and chief executive officer.

    “This plan demonstrates our focus on cash flow neutrality and a competitive dividend (freeze in our distribution at its current level of $2.08), while maintaining our financial strength. We are fortunate to have significant flexibility in our capital program. Spending on several major projects has peaked and we will get the benefit of production uplift from those projects over the next few years. In addition, we identified inventory in the unconventionals, where we also retain a high degree of capital flexibility.”

    About $5.0 billion(xxxx) is allocated toward development drilling programs. This compares to the 2014 budget of $6.5 billion (xxxx).

    In 2015, the Lower 48 development program capital will keep targeting the Eagle Ford (California) and Bakken (Wyoming, Michigan and CO2) , but will defer significant investment in the emerging North American unconventional plays, including the Permian (horizontal for sure), Niobrara (xxxx), Montney (xxxx) and Duvernay (xxxx).

  • "...Multiple pipeline infrastructure expansion projects have been underway ...The most highly anticipated of these projects was the 300 Mb/d BridgeTex pipeline from Colorado City in the eastern part of the West Texas Permian Basin to the Gulf Coast at Houston, which came online at the end of September 2014. But after it opened - as we outlined in October - the BridgeTex pipeline did not immediately relieve congestion out of the Permian (see A Bridge Too Near)....but...

    Now that constraint is about to be addressed as the Plains All American Sunrise pipeline comes online this month to provide 250 Mb/d of incremental capacity between Midland and Colorado City. Sunrise underwent line fill in November and the expectation of new supplies reaching Colorado City has increased volumes scheduled to flow on BridgeTex in January. The result has been a narrowing of the price differentials we mentioned a minute ago between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and West Texas Sour (WTS) – the two main Permian crudes delivered to Midland and the price of WTI delivered to Cushing, OK – the benchmark U.S. domestic grade. The chart in Figure #2 below shows these differentials since April 2013. The two Midland price quotes (blue line WTI, orange line WTS) traded close to WTI Cushing up until about September 2013 when Permian production started to outpace takeaway capacity. Over the 13 month period since then (to October 2014) Midland discounts to Cushing averaged about $6/Bbl with the WTI Midland discount blowing out to $14/Bbl below WTI Cushing in August of this year. During the last three weeks the Midland differentials to Cushing narrowed considerably (green dashed circle on Figure #2 less (than $1.00)) in expectation that the opening of the Sunrise pipeline will alleviate congestion between Midland and Colorado...."

  • Reply to

    Saudia Arabia exports to US

    by nymarv10956 Dec 4, 2014 11:40 PM
    moneyonomics moneyonomics Dec 8, 2014 2:19 PM Flag

    Chrx found article. you should be able to search for this title

    Focus on top spots to boost US oil output even as well permits fall
    Fri Dec 5, 2014 6:00am GMT
    By Ernest Scheyder and Kristen Hays
    WILLISTON, N.D./HOUSTON Dec 5 (Reuters)

  • moneyonomics by moneyonomics Dec 9, 2014 6:41 PM Flag

    bbep indicated they have a lot of capital spending flexibility if need be and indicated they could even go as low as $150mm in 2015 capital compared to a combined capital spend over recent 12 moths for combined entity approaching $550mm. In what ever capital spend scenario the go with for 2015 they suggested would be a lot less than $550mm and also indicated when the oil prices collapsed in 2008/2009 they saw a 20% reduction in operating costs from reduced material/service costs (personal note could be greater with postotle co2 flood now being 15% of revenue) and cost reductions in capital costs from reduced material/service costs and over all will see around a 3-5% reduction in ebitda for every $10 change in oil price at current hedged levels. Also at this point did not seem panicked on the distribution and felt good being hedged at their current level even though it would nice if it was more. Have over $350 mm in liquidity and no re determination till late next spring. Market price reaction today seemed encouraged by what they said.

  • Reply to

    Wells Fargo Symposium--

    by moneyonomics Dec 9, 2014 6:41 PM
    moneyonomics moneyonomics Dec 9, 2014 7:27 PM Flag

    yes very calm and controlled

  • Reply to

    Wells Fargo Symposium--

    by moneyonomics Dec 9, 2014 6:41 PM
    moneyonomics moneyonomics Dec 10, 2014 2:21 AM Flag

    "Is there any serious doubt that a re-determination in April..?"

    Do you have concrete evidence to back up that leading supposition?

  • Reply to

    Wells Fargo Symposium--

    by moneyonomics Dec 9, 2014 6:41 PM
    moneyonomics moneyonomics Dec 10, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    Redetermination lower not a forgone conclusion

    iv bry board Msg 155909 of 155934 at 12/10/2014 8:51:52 AM by sandgrey

    Denbury Announces New Credit Facility
    BN 12/10 13:45 *DENBURY NEW CREDIT LINE MAXIMUM FACILITY SIZE OF $3.5B
    BN 12/10 13:45 *DENBURY REPORTS NEW CREDIT LINE INITIAL BORROWING BASE OF $3B

    Denbury Announces New Credit Facility
    2014-12-10 13:45:08.227 GMT

    PLANO, Texas, Dec. 10, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Denbury Resources Inc.
    (NYSE:DNR) ("Denbury" or the "Company") today announced that it has entered
    into a new five-year revolving credit facility which amends and restates the
    Company's prior facility that was set to mature in May 2016. This new amended
    and restated revolving credit facility ("Facility") has a maximum facility
    size of $3.5 billion and an initial borrowing base of $3 billion. The Company
    elected to maintain the aggregate lender commitments at $1.6 billion to be
    consistent with the Company's prior facility. The Facility provides for an
    annual redetermination of the borrowing base around May 1 of each year and
    permits the Company to increase the aggregate lender commitments up to the
    borrowing base amount with approval and incremental commitments from the
    existing lenders or new lenders. The Facility also reduces borrowing costs by
    25 basis points on the drawn spread, provides for a lower interest rate on the
    undrawn spread, and grants Denbury the option to release all collateral upon
    the receipt of a single investment grade rating. The Facility was provided by
    a syndicate of 24 financial institutions including JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.,
    as administrative agent, and Bank of America, N.A. and Wells Fargo Bank,
    National Association as co-syndication agents.

    Denbury is a dividend-paying, domestic oil and natural gas company. The
    Company's primary focus is on enhanced oil recovery utilizing carbon dioxide…

  • Reply to

    Wells Fargo Symposium--

    by moneyonomics Dec 9, 2014 6:41 PM
    moneyonomics moneyonomics Dec 10, 2014 10:34 AM Flag

    I could not clearly ascertain question either, but the way he answered I surmise and again only surmise it was what is fair yield on the units

  • Reply to

    Wells Fargo Symposium--

    by moneyonomics Dec 9, 2014 6:41 PM
    moneyonomics moneyonomics Dec 10, 2014 12:37 PM Flag

    cheap this was the original post from bicep that started this thread I was attempting to respond to. did appreciate all of your feedback

    " Is there any serious doubt that a re-determination in April, not late spring, will cut it by that, given a 12 month look-back?"

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