How much has it depleted?.....im thinking about the 40 million or so in paying countries....not the other 110 million in poor countries......what percentage have they cured so far?
and there will be no growth. I hope Gilead Hep Crevenue does level out near where it is now and stay there for 15 years....Its going to have a MUCH longer tail that analysts realize. I'm looking at this from a medical standpoint and as a cured hep c patient. Lawsuits, policy and negotiation will moderate the rate of cure.....it will take a lot of time and money to eliminate this disease. Gilead can take their time. I think these aquisition targets are in a bit of bubble now..smart Gilead. Meanwhile Gilead is racking up $$$ at 10/1 forward PE instead of 40 or 50 /1.
I notice IBD touts it again today (see Yahoo news). Article talks about Gilead getting bad media press over the high price of its Harvoni; that an aquisition would help this. The stock they suggest is Vertex... VRTX is currently getting approval for its new cystic fibrosis combo...the price is expected to be over $300,000 per year, year after year. How is this supposed to help Gilead's image with price?
Cramer logic is so simple for an industry that is so complex. Competition is coming so Gilead has peaked.... I think hep c treatment will still be ramping up at the end of this year....There is pleanty to go around.....The country must bear the cost of its war on drugs... I imagine they figured all these people will just die....and the vets with them.... Thrn Gilead has to upset the applecart and invent a cure....I wonder if the government would pay Gilead not to produce a cure for cancer... like paying farmers not to grow crops....The anti Gilead group are really good at whining....
Cramer is really frustrated and confused by this market= he is losing his #$%$
then totally blocking the clinical results of using Viekira....the physicians dont appreciate this...I, for one, will avoid using Escripts whenever possible and let my opinion be know among others in my profession.
is see $150 easily..given neutral market conditions....there are not many biotechs available as alternative....ic regeneron declining today as it struggles with new drug problems....the new expensive drugs are not cures....hasn;t been a cure like harvoni since antibiotics...
I automatically does because the stock is extinguished upon buy back...so the remaining shares increase by that percent value....instead of paying dividends of $15 billion, which would have gone to sharehoders pockets, the company increased the value of its stock by the buyback percent amount,and that's what shareholders got instead of divvy. The $15 billion didn't just disappear. Most buyback arent so good cause companies buyback too high a price which is losing propostition. ...increasing earning per share (since fewer shares) but nothing else. Also most companies are borrowing $$ to buyback stock (cheap rates)...BUT Gilead's have been a real bargain.....getting back all that stock at 10/1 P/E..so GILD's buyback is a double dip...stock bt back at $100 per share does more than remove shares....it gives the company (remaining shareholders) a PROFIT on the shares bt back....since stock is $117.. A rare confluence of events here i would say.
A lot of negative publicity and misunderstanding about Hep C and what it means to have a cure rather than a treatment.....this caused the opportunity for GILD to buy back its stock so cheap for so long....
The recent senate action giving $900 mil more cinched it for me....and the presentation at Goldman
really cast a shadow over Abbvie....something Goldman didn't appear to know is the blocking of any infor about how Viekira pak is doing... the doc who prescrible wont like this..
of GILD than they did when it broke $116 (approximately)...so one should subtract $10 from share price when comparing stock price to Nov stock price..(this is assuming $15 bil in buyback (close).. If anyone has questiong just ask the board...
It's like a reverse split..Approx $15 B buyback in last 6-8 months add $10 by subtracing 10% of market cap.
This stock has a long way to go UP...
there to avoid high cost of drugs... why pay $300,000 when u can get copy in India for $1,300? See article on Express scrips trips to India
Then it will be a wrongful death lawsuit. So can blue cross ok Vertex drug for $300K per year (for a slight improvement in function) while denying someone with hep C ???Doesn't seem too fair... The press just loves the new cystic fibrosis drug...
For that matter abbvie Humara cost a lot. I was on it for 4 years...$24,000 per year for total of $96,000. This for a slight improvement in psoriasis. I think a lot of neg news on giliead was paid for by express scripts/abbvie...its called "sponsored news.
Harvoni lawsuit is a snowball rolling downhill in deep snow... especially as more and more boomers find out they have it....
The end of June will be the first time a SVR will be available for Hep C patients started with Viekira Pak in January. Express Scripts has been very closed mouthed about prescriptions they have written thru agreement with Abbvie and any results they have had treating Hep C patients.
The Viekira Pak revenue in Q 1 was so small ( BMY had greater Hep c drug revenue) considering the exclusive deal with Express Scripts that I question what problems Express Scripts might have encountered with poor compliance and aversion to Ribavarin yielding poor results. Does anyone here share my suspicions?
are rising dramatically. Those governments will still need to cure them...they cant wail till patent
expiration... and pharmaceutical industry is not going to roll over and sell cheap because pharmacy management companies want them to...All the players (poss excepting ABBV) will have pleanty of share.
There is no durability/peak prom=blem
I think they aren't used to the idea of a cure. nd they don't realize the debilitating effect of HCV way before liver transplant time. Fatigue, brain fog, loss of skin integrity, depression...and many more...i quit working in 2005 due to Hepc....was cured in gileads ION 3 clinical trial....now im back in the workforce.
Gilead has chance to buy enormous amounts of their stock back from the likes of j p morgan, etc. By the time they realize what is going on it will be too late....GILD will be at $150..
Sentiment: Strong Buy