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LeapFrog Enterprises Inc. Message Board

monkey567x 6 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Sep 21, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Todays Tealeaves...

    by offsitehelp 20 hours ago
    monkey567x monkey567x 11 hours ago Flag

    Agree that from a technical view the supply of sellers should be exhausted at this time. So many recent high volume days and churning of the share float out of week hands make it ripe for a short term rebound under normal circumstances. However my concern would be with the fundamentals..... The current business model broke over the last six months with the continued shrinking margins on the e-cig business, lower revenue and greater losses in the face of increased competition and decreasing retail/whole sale prices. At this time the business looks broken and looks like it will get worse each Q. Perhaps there is hope with retail vape stores and with a change in the products away from e-cigs and into vaporizers.

  • Reply to

    Bought at 5, then at 3, waiting for 2

    by dosterkopf2000 Aug 21, 2014 12:45 PM
    monkey567x monkey567x Aug 21, 2014 7:12 PM Flag

    I'm watching both VPCO and VPOR at this time with no investment in either at this time. VPOR claims they will have ten retail location by the end of the year and VPCO 9. But I suspect that VPOR locations will be more like traditional smoke shops while the VPCO retail location with VaporFi will try to be something closer to an Apple store. Both are based in Florida and each stock should benefit greatly from the 2014 FL election (legalization issues on the ballot). VPOR has some weird financing issues that are due to October.

    For me, the valuation of both is too rich when I divide the number of projected stores by the market cap. Each store consists of a lease, merchandise and some employees. I know there is also the e-cig business but there is too much competition and it now looks to be a dying business for all but the major players, so I greatly discount the e-cig business in my recent evaluations.

  • Reply to

    Bought at 5, then at 3, waiting for 2

    by dosterkopf2000 Aug 21, 2014 12:45 PM
    monkey567x monkey567x Aug 21, 2014 1:54 PM Flag

    This second bad Q in a row and competitor filings confirmed that there was a shift in the e-cig business. E-cig competitors are increasing faster than market demand. Of greater concern are shrinking margins for the industry. I don't agree with an earlier commenter that stated VPCO was getting rid of older merchandise so margins suffered this Q, this was only a small part of the problem and margins will continue to decrease on e-cigs. (this is the way for most technology products)

    For both ECIG and VPCO the market cap is being reduced to account for the increased competition and decreasing margins. 40 million was too much for a few pending patents and a money loosing e-cig distribution business. Now there is hope for and a focus on the transition to vaporizer sales and smoke shops. Competitor VPOR already has this and is overvalued at 16 million, so my guess is that VPCO is not done declining, even at $2.18 today.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    So what's good?

    by cannibal_karl Aug 7, 2014 7:43 PM
    monkey567x monkey567x Aug 15, 2014 10:11 PM Flag

    Another guess/estimate is that for VPCO , Q3 will post lower revenue and greater losses than expected. VPCO's E-Cig revenue will continue to decrease as competition increases at a rate faster than the e-cig market. In addition Q3 will not contain the 1.2 million in e-cig carry-over Q1 revenue that Q2 contained.
    The good news is that the acquisition will help to improve upon VPCO's current falling revenue, the bad is that the acquisition takes place late in Q3 so it will not have a chance to contribute much to this quarter, this will again disappoint investors. Also Q3 will include many acquisition and transition costs, despite being one-time costs they will be disappointing none the less.

    The announcement of the Q3 earnings (for July, August, Sept) during Q4 (mid-November) should bring about a low point for VPCO most likely a $1.90 retest. VPCO will be a more interesting bet at that time (mid November) if the VaporFi stores are a success. Another catalyst in November is the elections where more states may legalize (especially FL) and stimulate investor appetite again for MJ related stocks.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    So what's good?

    by cannibal_karl Aug 7, 2014 7:43 PM
    monkey567x monkey567x Aug 8, 2014 1:38 AM Flag

    I'm going to go out on a limb and state that VPCO will show another loss ie go below the expectation of 0.00 BE with the inclusion of 1.2m revenue carry forward from last Q. In last Q VPCO mentioned that margins had dropped from the forties to the twenties. So 20% of the back log revenue translates to profit of $240K (not enough to push VPCO out of the negative earnings even if it was applied to last Q or this Q.
    The other issue I now have with VPCO is the overall industry. The number of e-cig smokers and vapers is growing but take into consideration that the competition is growing at an even faster rate. June 30th LO stated e-cig sales dropped as competition increased. This is not good for VPCO which is even less of a position to compete than LO. (LO does not have the capital constraints and as many logistical issues as VPCO).
    Exiting VPCO and will be watching for the next two Qs.

  • Reply to

    What's not to like?

    by michellesdream May 22, 2014 1:41 PM
    monkey567x monkey567x Jun 4, 2014 4:30 PM Flag

    ..What's not to like
    1) The e-cig industry still has the issue with the patent lawsuit from Imperial Tobacco.
    2) ECIG seems to be over paying for their acquisitions. There needs to be incredible growth to justify the acquisitions...which there may be. Surprised that ECIG has not expressed an interest in acquiring VPCO for less than 100M.
    ..I like...
    1) That FIN seems to be for sale everywhere other ecigs are sold.
    2) Distribution channels continue to grow
    3) There are some ex-tobacco executives on the board, using connections and trying to drive growth

LF
6.25-0.01(-0.16%)Aug 28 4:07 PMEDT

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