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Corrections Corporation of America Message Board

monkey567x 3 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 15, 2014 10:11 PM Member since: Sep 21, 2003
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  • Reply to

    So what's good?

    by cannibal_karl Aug 7, 2014 7:43 PM
    monkey567x monkey567x Aug 15, 2014 10:11 PM Flag

    Another guess/estimate is that for VPCO , Q3 will post lower revenue and greater losses than expected. VPCO's E-Cig revenue will continue to decrease as competition increases at a rate faster than the e-cig market. In addition Q3 will not contain the 1.2 million in e-cig carry-over Q1 revenue that Q2 contained.
    The good news is that the acquisition will help to improve upon VPCO's current falling revenue, the bad is that the acquisition takes place late in Q3 so it will not have a chance to contribute much to this quarter, this will again disappoint investors. Also Q3 will include many acquisition and transition costs, despite being one-time costs they will be disappointing none the less.

    The announcement of the Q3 earnings (for July, August, Sept) during Q4 (mid-November) should bring about a low point for VPCO most likely a $1.90 retest. VPCO will be a more interesting bet at that time (mid November) if the VaporFi stores are a success. Another catalyst in November is the elections where more states may legalize (especially FL) and stimulate investor appetite again for MJ related stocks.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    So what's good?

    by cannibal_karl Aug 7, 2014 7:43 PM
    monkey567x monkey567x Aug 8, 2014 1:38 AM Flag

    I'm going to go out on a limb and state that VPCO will show another loss ie go below the expectation of 0.00 BE with the inclusion of 1.2m revenue carry forward from last Q. In last Q VPCO mentioned that margins had dropped from the forties to the twenties. So 20% of the back log revenue translates to profit of $240K (not enough to push VPCO out of the negative earnings even if it was applied to last Q or this Q.
    The other issue I now have with VPCO is the overall industry. The number of e-cig smokers and vapers is growing but take into consideration that the competition is growing at an even faster rate. June 30th LO stated e-cig sales dropped as competition increased. This is not good for VPCO which is even less of a position to compete than LO. (LO does not have the capital constraints and as many logistical issues as VPCO).
    Exiting VPCO and will be watching for the next two Qs.

  • Reply to

    What's not to like?

    by michellesdream May 22, 2014 1:41 PM
    monkey567x monkey567x Jun 4, 2014 4:30 PM Flag

    ..What's not to like
    1) The e-cig industry still has the issue with the patent lawsuit from Imperial Tobacco.
    2) ECIG seems to be over paying for their acquisitions. There needs to be incredible growth to justify the acquisitions...which there may be. Surprised that ECIG has not expressed an interest in acquiring VPCO for less than 100M.
    ..I like...
    1) That FIN seems to be for sale everywhere other ecigs are sold.
    2) Distribution channels continue to grow
    3) There are some ex-tobacco executives on the board, using connections and trying to drive growth

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