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RF Micro Devices Inc. Message Board

monrio1 138 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 29, 2014 3:35 PM Member since: Jul 26, 2000
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  • monrio1 by monrio1 Oct 29, 2014 3:35 PM Flag

    Swks is 13.87 per Yahoo.
    Avago is 13.21.

    The Qrvo forward PE based on new results from Tqnt and steady results from Rfmd is about 11.

  • Almost reaching Note 3 release sales of 5m last year in first 30 days but this launch did not include many large markets. Just recently UK, India, and U.S. started getting the Note 4. Source GSM arena on Oct. 27.

  • Look at the posts showing up in desperation on this msg. board this evening.

  • Intel announced on their website some key design wins with Samsung for their cat 6 modem 7260. These included Alpha, Note 4, Tab S 8 and Tab S 10.5.

    Rfmd won the ET and a multi-mode PA on Alpha but nothing was mentioned for Note 4, even that Samsung was supplying its own baseband Shannon processor on some Note 4 units.

    However, very possibly, because Intel supplies the international version of Note 4 baseband with the 7260 modem, and Intel supplies the same 7260 baseband with Alpha, a very good chance remains that Rfmd will supply ET and perhaps mmmb PA to the Note 4 international versions.

    Apparently, where Samsung uses its own apps processor, it often chooses to use Intel for the baseband rather than Qcom, the latter wanting to supply both baseband and apps.

    Unfortunately, Rfmd does not talk about specific handsets, but maybe a question from the analysts about involvement in Samsung premium tier smartphones this fall would give an indication of the breadth of Rfmd participation.

    Bruggeworth did say the this fall's smartphone rollouts or ramps do favor Rfmd. he just was not specific. Rfmd apparently did not do nearly as well as Avgo or Swks in the Apple rollouts, so was Brug referring to Samsung?

    I have seen no information about how Alpha sales are doing, one month into U.S. sales at AT&T. I also don't know if the international versions of Samsung premium phones usually sell more volume than the other versions.

  • monrio1 by monrio1 Oct 24, 2014 9:14 AM Flag

    ... a publicly-listed global provider of telecommunications equipment, network solutions and mobile devices, posted a 191% increase in third-quarter profit as the company recorded growth in its smartphone and 4G equipment operations.

    ZTE experienced strong growth in its operations in Europe, North America and China, as the company benefited from its strategy to focus on key products including 4G LTE, 100G Optical Networks, Gigabit Passive Optical Networks, high-performance network routers and premium smartphones. In the 4G LTE market in China, ZTE consolidated its position as the leading vendor. The robust business performance is indicative of the company’s growing competitiveness.

    In the third-quarter, ZTE posted an over-40% increase in revenue from handset terminals, as sales in key markets including China, the United States and Japan recorded growth.

  • I believe Qorvo (both Rfmd and Tqnt) in their next conference calls still must help alleviate the downward pressure on their share prices. By emphasizing unique sustainable core strengths that the market for some reason still does not want to recognize, maybe Qorvo can start to show the market that not every supplier winds up in the same PA pot as in former years.

    The RF cellular suppliers forever have been lumped together and bragging rights resulted from those with the biggest marketshares and profits. The bragging rights will continue but what may change is how each major supplier's sustainability is viewed. The also-rans were perceived as vulnerable and still are, and unfortunately Qorvo still has some work to do in dispelling the perception. Ex. One or two analysts' comments that Rfmd share in iPhone 6 declined somewhat is enough to send the share price down from $12.81 to $9.30's.

    Instead of PA dominance, the industy now can evaluate each supplier on a number of areas:
    1. PA's.
    2. Filters
    3. Switches (all kinds)
    3. Tuning
    4. Envelope tracking and Power Management
    5. Wifi
    6. Integrations
    7. Optical
    8. Base Stations
    9. GaN vs. GaAs.
    10. Aerospace and defense

    Either Qorvo has defensible products, or Qorvo successfully competes to make better products, but the market needs to see that Qorvo is gaining strength, not losing position. From the recent stock price swoon and subsequent sharp swings, the market still is not a total believer.

  • Tqnt has Huawei and Foxconn as 10% customers, although Tqnt is a strong infrastructure supplier to Huawei.
    Rfmd in late November, 2013 was named by Huawei as Supplier of the Year.
    It was the second time in three years Rfmd won Supplier of the Year from Huawei.

    Q4 global smartphone shipments to grow up to 80 pct Q/Q
    China's Huawei Technologies Co Ltd said third-quarter smartphone shipments jumped 26 percent year-on-year, doubling devices shipped to the high-margin premium market dominated by Samsung Electronics Co Ltd and Apple Inc.

    Shenzhen-based Huawei, the world's third-biggest smartphone supplier after the dominant pair, shipped 16.8 million smartphones globally in the quarter ended Sept. 30, according to company data. About a quarter of those were mid- to high-end models, more than twice as many as the same period last year.

    High-margin premium phone shipments double
    Shipped about 51 mln smartphones globally so far this year

  • Reply to

    Deluge of Posts

    by monrio1 Oct 22, 2014 11:25 AM
    monrio1 monrio1 Oct 22, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    Too long in dbr's own house of mirrors.

  • monrio1 by monrio1 Oct 22, 2014 11:25 AM Flag

    The over-posts yesterday were a strategy to dry up or drown out dbr from posting, and in turn to try to get some kind of decent and genuine conversation established about prospects going into earnings.

    Cutting out the insufferable dbr noise was worth the over-posting (carpet bombing), and I truly hope for a healthy exchange of insights the next few days.

  • Reply to

    Wonder why RFMD is tanking today???

    by rickarooski Oct 22, 2014 10:45 AM
    monrio1 monrio1 Oct 22, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    Getting down to the last three days for the day trading, as next Monday starts the anticipation for Tqnt earnings release on Tuesday.

    How are you playing this earnings call, roosk? What base going into earnings is likely to form, and at what price? Volume going in may give some hints.

    The Buhaly investor conference call August 14th gave good differentiation of market strengths for each company. Tqnt is expected to have a strong 2H, up much more percentage revenue than Rfmd, and an oddly higher 4q. So, even more interesting will be Rfmd's revenue number next Wednesday. If it's high and if Rfmd guides higher, the Rfmd leadership spotlight will resume (what longs hope for, as Tqnt's filters seem a sure bet to drive revenues).

    In any case, the growth drivers by both companies for 4q should get better defined and quantified.

  • Reply to

    3q14 Smartphones Sold Report: 310m

    by monrio1 Oct 21, 2014 3:29 PM
    monrio1 monrio1 Oct 21, 2014 4:54 PM Flag

    Peak 2G + Peak 3G but not Peak 4G.

    2G handsets are declining..
    3G handsets are relatively flat at 210m units per qtr for 1q and 2q and 3q.

    4G handsets are increasing 71m to 88m units 1q and 2q. Then 3q will be 100m units and 4q well over 120m units. Apple alone will count for 60m 4G unit sales in December qtr.

    What is needed to sustain RF growth is for 4G handset sales to continue the march towards 125m units per qtr and beyond.

    4G is...
    -- the overall measuring stick to predict RF revenue growth,
    -- along with which RF supplier has what content in the two or three or four leading 4G global handset models
    -- along with which RF supplier gets the ET and Carrier Agg designs in LTE-Advanced.

    3G appears to be a battle for whose integration schemes will win share within a flat handset market:
    RF Fusion?

  • Reply to

    3q14 Smartphones Sold Report: 310m

    by monrio1 Oct 21, 2014 3:29 PM
    monrio1 monrio1 Oct 21, 2014 3:38 PM Flag

    A preliminary report from two weeks ago estimated Samsung 3q14 smartphones to be flat to slightly higher than 75m units sold in 2q14. The above information from Digitimes is 18m units more. Seems like a large discrepancy.

  • Global smartphone shipments grew 9.1% to reach 310 million units in the third quarter of 2014 ... [ ].

    Samsung Electronics meanwhile accounted for 30% of global smartphone shipments in the third quarter (93M) while LG Electronics held a 6.4% share (19.8m), surpassing Huawei Device to become the number four vendor globally, the report noted.

    (If the Digitimes report is accurate, those are the highest smartphones sales numbers for Samsung and LG going back many quarters.)

  • Add to this the 5 to 7 week targeted channel inventory Apple wants to establish, and production for December quarter should exceed 85m iphone 6's.
    Reviewing the robust September quarter results, JP Morgan analyst Rod Hall said …
    In an investors note released Tuesday, the analyst said he does see some risk in the current quarter based on Apple's ability to boost iPhone production and believes the company is eyeing greater demand than supply for the iPhone through the end of the 2014.

    For the December quarter, Hall forecasts iPhone unit sales of around 65 million, a 27 percent increase from the year-ago quarter. But he believes those numbers could be much higher if Apple is able to catch up with the heavy demand sooner than expected.

  • Reply to

    LTE Expands Total Available RF Market Minimum of 4X

    by monrio1 Oct 21, 2014 2:16 PM
    monrio1 monrio1 Oct 21, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    From RFMD CC in July:

    Looking first at handsets, half of the world’s handsets shipping today average less than $1 of RF content and that’s increasing to several dollars over a multi-year period as the demand for data requires incremental RF content. Whether you look at entry level devices or flagship smartphones, the RF content is growing generation over generation across market segments and geographies.

    ... in fact we see nearly
    $1b of TAM growth in cellular RF this year and more than $1 billion of growth in the cellular RF industry next year.

    Compounding this, RFMD is enjoying broad based design traction in new growth areas like antenna tuning, impedance tuning, diversity switches, power management circuits, highly integrated antenna switch modules and RF Fusion.

  • RF Content Premium Global LTE Phones = $teens.
    RF Content Regional Roaming LTE Phones = $8.
    RF Content Low Tier LTE Phones = $4

  • entry-level phones transition to LTE smartphones, RF content expand significantly. While high-end phones are pushing RF dollar content into the teens we expect content to jump from less than $1 to $3 or $4 with entry-level phones moved from 2G to 4G with significant unit volume behind the transition.
    Regional roaming 4G phones are expected to drive $8 of RF content.

  • General Electric Co. posted strong third quarter results, issued an upbeat forecast for the fourth quarter and said U.S. industrial activity is at its highest level since the financial crisis.

    CEO Jeff Immelt said there is uncertainty in the global economy, but that nations around the world are still going ahead with large infrastructure projects and companies are buying equipment.

    "It's a slow growth pattern with volatility but not a lot different than what we've seen in the past," he said in a conference call with investors. He pointed to pockets of high activity in the developing world, slow growth in Europe and Japan, and strength in the U.S.

    "The U.S. is probably the best we've seen it since the financial crisis," he said

  • Reply to

    LTE Number: 37% Growth in 2015

    by monrio1 Oct 21, 2014 9:27 AM
    monrio1 monrio1 Oct 21, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    1.4 billion smartphones in 2015, and 600m will be LTE.
    HSUPA / HSPA+ will be replaced by LTE as the world's most widely used smartphone air-interface technology in 2015.

    We forecast 4G technoligy to account for 38% of total global smartphone sales in 2014, rising to 45% in 2015. Moreover, LTE-Advanced will entend into more markets from 2014 onwards.

    China will surpass USA to become the largest LTE smartphone market globally in 2014.
    Global Smartphone Sales Forecast for 88 Countries : 2007 to 2020, global smartphone sales will grow +13% in 2015, offseting the slowdown in feature phones.

    Asia Pacific will remain the growth driver, accounting for half of global volumes in 2015. China and US will remain the largest smartphone sales countries through 2015. India will surpass the US to become the 2nd larget market by 2019. Central Latin America and Africa Middle East will see strong smartphone growth through 2020 and play a role as a new growth engine for the global market.

    The world's top 20 countries will account for 8 in 10 of global smartphone volumes in 2015.

  • LTE handset sales are set to surge in 2015 according to new research from our WDS (Devices) service. China and the US will drive sales growth, with global LTE handset sales expanding by a healthy 37% year-on-year in 2015, making the technology the fastest growing and most important segment in the mobile phone market. The big four LTE markets will be China, the US, South Korea and Japan, with growth in China driven by a rapid transition from 2G/3G to LTE, and in the other three markets by a transition to next generation LTE-A which will support advanced new services.

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