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Merck & Co. Inc. Message Board

mooseonaplane 157 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 23, 2014 2:12 AM Member since: Oct 16, 2009
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  • mooseonaplane mooseonaplane Dec 23, 2014 2:12 AM Flag

    MACD is inherently a lagging indicator and is not very useful for stocks trading in an erratic trading pattern such as BTU. The swings in BTU have been huge of late.

  • mooseonaplane by mooseonaplane Dec 23, 2014 1:10 AM Flag

    As I mentioned before the downfall of BTU is only a symptom of a much larger problem facing the world economy. The Central Banks are terrified of disinflation and for good reason the globe is awash in debt and debt burdens become quite dangerous in a deflating environment. Hence the reason the Central Banks are adding more and more liquidity, the EU soon to embark on their own QE with the hope of creating growth and inflation.

    The critical problem, all this money printing is not producing growth, not helping the real economy, only inflating certain assets such as stocks. It is also creating troubling bubbles as we have seen in the oil patch recently, it is also pushing the U.S. dollar much higher which ironically is making the rising debt levels in the emerging markets even more hazardous, as a sizable proportion of that debt is denominated in U.S. dollars.

    A Catch 22 is now firmly in place...Disinflation or Rising Dollar, both highly negative for massive global debt albatross.

    What I foresee taking place sometime in the 2nd qtr of 2015 is the realization that the Central Bankers strategy of endless liquidity/QEs/currency devaluation, is not working. That the markets start losing faith in this insanity or we have a major dislocation. If this prediction does take hold then it could become very, very ugly, making the Great Depression look like child's play. The dominoes are clearly lined up, from Russia, Japan, South America, Middle East, Europe...

    I believe it is wise to add to cash positions and purchase some gold as the tail risks grow. Fewer and fewer stocks and sectors are leading this market to new highs, the breadth is weak, M&A has breached bubble territory. Definitely a time to be highly cautious in my opinion and cash is the only defense in this environment, possibly some gold. Hope I am wrong, we shall see.

  • The likelihood of bankruptcy grows with each passing day.

  • mooseonaplane mooseonaplane Dec 18, 2014 2:48 PM Flag

    Thank you for the information. There are so many brainless PUMPERS on this board who have ridden this stock down 64% in the past year alone, they are desperate and so angry. I noticed in Moffett's research report one can make the case Sprint stock has no value, zero. So I guess bankruptcy is not out of the question.

  • Oldmaneddie is his latest creation...Brightstar BS the giveaway.

  • His research note went on to say one can make a very plausible case Sprint has no equity value at all.

  • Don't quite comprehend why ONEOK bonds are trading like speculative drillers? Transporting and processing natural gas I would think would have safe haven status, the Bonds would be doing well, but they are acting the opposite? I don't get it.

  • If it is indeed the dividend when is that amount paid out to shareholders? Thanks in advance!

  • Thanks in advance.

  • mooseonaplane by mooseonaplane Dec 16, 2014 2:13 PM Flag

    Women and children first! Pumpers, down with the ship!

  • mooseonaplane mooseonaplane Dec 15, 2014 10:55 PM Flag

    That is the rumor on the street that Putin has been a large seller of gold to defend the currency. Gold is a relatively liquid asset, so it makes sense. But why sell Gold if you are raising rates to 17%? Putin went all in on that one.

  • Dominoes are starting to fall...Credit Markets coming under pressure, liquidity drying up, Russia imploding. Any spike in the ruble will be short-lived! Raising the benchmark rate to 17% will devastate what is left of the Russian economy. NUTS!!! The world economy is much more leveraged than most realize.

  • I understand Russia is doing this to defend their currency which has been in free fall but that guarantees a very severe recession in 2015, which will serve only to weaken the currency further. Now the former Soviet Union economy is getting slammed by collapsing oil prices and dramatically rising interest rates. I just don't see how this ends well. Russia could very well default on it's debt and that will send the credit markets reeling globally.

  • mooseonaplane mooseonaplane Dec 15, 2014 6:02 PM Flag

    What I was hoping would not happen is quickly coming into play. The Junk Bond market is being bought down by collapsing oil prices, the contagion in Russia, Venezuela, et cetera. Now I am even seeing stress in investment grade corporates! I shorted the S&P 500 a few weeks ago but that is being offset by my losses in Gold. Very surprised Gold is not catching a bid in these turbulent times. But I guess everything is sold in a credit market event, lack of liquidity. Very telling the money center banks got hit today, not a good sign. This could become very very ugly. I suspect the European Central Bank will announce QEs shortly, not sure it will do much good. I am still keeping my eye on 3 symbols JNK, HYG (junk space) and RSX Russian ETF. Good barometers.

  • mooseonaplane mooseonaplane Dec 15, 2014 5:33 PM Flag

    Earnings? I guess that is why Spring lost 785 million last qtr.

  • Reply to

    Sprint is dirt Cheap

    by oldmaneddie81 Dec 15, 2014 4:19 PM
    mooseonaplane mooseonaplane Dec 15, 2014 5:30 PM Flag

    Any time I see the term "LOL" embedded in a yahoo message post I realize immediately I am dealing with a simpleton buffoon. What this fool fails to recognize is Sprint's free cash flow has been steadily falling each qtr and their revenues have resulted in large losses, the number of customers has been falling, the debt is rated JUNK! And now that desperate Son has entered into a price war with much larger competitors with deeper pockets, investment grade ratings, access to the credit markets, possessing superior, comprehensive networks, well that spells even larger losses for Sprint in the coming qtrs. Hence the reason Sprint stock has dove an almost unbelievable 64% in the past 12 months alone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • mooseonaplane by mooseonaplane Dec 15, 2014 5:10 PM Flag

    I actually believe the recent precipitous fall in Gold Miners is a positive for ABX, the reason being it will speed up the consolidation process in the sector with the smaller players either closing their doors or being swallowed up by bigger players for dirt cheap prices. You could also have two large players merging.

    The demand supply dynamics for gold is so much different than oil, where the world is presently awash in crude with many of the smaller players continuing to produce because they are hedged, gold is the opposite in many regards, with actual gold supply not keeping up with demand. A lot of Gold holdings are in paper only, also keep in mind there is no fracking revolution with gold. Mining for gold is a labor intensive, heavy going process, which can be quickly slowed or shut down keeping demand and supply in check.

    The crisis in Russia, the slowing world economy, will only serve to increase the money printing globally, intensify the currency war, this will eventually be a huge positive for gold. Combine this fact with the above mentioned well contained supply demand dynamics, I believe ABX trading below $11 is a gift.

  • mooseonaplane mooseonaplane Dec 12, 2014 3:19 PM Flag

    The bar is set quite high for the Fed to reinstate QE, it would be an admission that QE does not work and that QE is an endless medication without end. The U.S. Fed was hoping they could hand the ball off to other nations to do their dirty work, such as Japan, Europe and now China. We are clearly in the midst of a currency war and all that implies.

    As I suspected the Junk Bond debacle brought on by the collapse in oil is starting to cross over to investment grade debt, liquidity is becoming a problem globally. People can't seem to comprehend it is leveraged oil that is negative, not falling oil prices alone. A lot more banks have exposure to this debacle than they are letting on. This is starting to spread. Russia is in big, big trouble, and they have lots of debt outstanding.

    It will be interesting to see how the equity market closes today. The Money Center Banks are very good at pumping these markets up at the end of the day buying S&P futures and JNK and HYG have come off their lows.

    What I see is a potential huge problem, thus far it has translated into a mild correction for the larger indexes. But we are definitely near a tipping point. When it goes, it will go hard to the downside. Not sure a Fed QE announcement would do much good in that scenario.

  • Reply to

    JUG REPORT: TOP 5 TACTICS OF A PUMPER

    by whadda_u_know Dec 11, 2014 2:01 PM
    mooseonaplane mooseonaplane Dec 12, 2014 3:03 PM Flag

    Whigglee, the depths of your denseness is truly remarkable and apparently bottomless, much like Sprint's stock price. You obviously question my Sprint short position and yet if I were to now disclose my price points that will somehow relieve your skepticism. Hopefully even you can comprehend the stupidity of that query. Example: I borrowed shares and shorted Sprint Jan 7, 2014 $10.05. Your response: Okay, now I believe you. If you don't trust that I am shorting Sprint does me typing a response on a yahoo message board mean anything? Rather a pointless pursuit. I am however currently short Sprint (sold half the position for a handsome profit yesterday) moved some of those winnings to add to my S&P 500 short (SDS). I have also been shorting a number of ETFs in the fossil fuel space. Sold out of a large BTU short when it broke 8. Created a short position in a few of the money center banks today. What you need to focus on Whigglee are your huge Sprint losses and your severely broken logic. I find your posts quite comical and weak.

  • Reply to

    JUG REPORT: TOP 5 TACTICS OF A PUMPER

    by whadda_u_know Dec 11, 2014 2:01 PM
    mooseonaplane mooseonaplane Dec 12, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    You have to believe some of these Sprint Pumpers are paid, they spend nearly all their days typing their NONSENSE on this message board. I realize their arcane drivel is of very poor quality but what else could possibly be their motivation other than supplementing their evening pizza delivery jobs?

MRK
57.46+0.25(+0.44%)Dec 24 2:48 PMEST

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