Finster, it has become quite apparent anytime you formulate an opinion, utilize your famously inept inductive/deductive reasoning skills, the conclusion you draw proves to be painfully WRONG!
If the reserve currency begins to deflate in this environment then welcome to complete chaos and anarchy then as you point out, guns and ammo will be a precious commodity (throw in can goods also). As far as BTU pulling off a small gain in a seriously down market, I wouldn't read too much into that. It is not unusual for stocks that have been beaten to a pulp to see short-term counter uptrends as equities that have participated in the bull market sell-off.
I see 1990 on the S&P 500 as the key support level, if we break, clear sailing down to 1870. And based on the way the money center bank stocks have been acting of late I think this time the markets finally do capitulate (Flattening yield curve very bad news for banks). Now throw in the currency war, the Middle East and Russia unraveling, Europe falling into recession, the Euro collapsing, the property bubble in China unraveling, Abenomics failing in Japan, commodity debacle killing the emerging markets, the huge debt load worldwide...Well you tell me where the bottom is?
How long can the money center banks continue to prop up this market? The Fed has been using these criminal institutions to do their dirty work for quite some time, so-called banks buying up S&P 500 futures near the close to prevent breaking key support levels in the equity markets. But now that many are finally beginning to comprehend a rising dollar is not necessarily a good thing (Negative impact on U.S. corporate earnings and significantly raising the debt burden on foreign IOUs denominated in dollars) I suspect this game is about over and we will indeed close below the critical 1990 S&P level soon which will open the gate for a brutal sell-off.
As far as the small rally in BTU today, consider it another joke, driven simply by rising turmoil in the Middle East and Russia, which is a very, very bad development longer term for all stocks, including BTU. The bigger picture is this...The globe is currently in a severe currency war which will produce more and more serious ramifications in the future. Central Banks have lost control and that realization will soon hit the equity market hard. I strongly suggest you move into cash, gold, gold stocks. Cash number one on the list.
Plenty of downside left.
Not a good idea to purchase a stock that is in the business of poisoning our water, air, a large contributor to man-made global warming. The American people have had enough! You deserve to lose your blood money.
dstone, this is no doubt a market driven entirely by momentum stocks, the Wall Street darlings continue soaring higher, the one's that have been blackballed are slammed. The problem is obvious, this charade is void of any logic, fundamentals. But this insanity is all rather predictable in a world of currency wars, the Central Banks endless QEs, money printing. The free market has been murdered, price discovery is dead. The U.S. dollar can only go so high before it begins to damage our economy, and inflates foreign debt denominated in our currency (over 9 trillion dollars outstanding) to unsustainable levels. Very concerned about Russia and other emerging markets. We are fast approaching the breaking point and when it does finally collapse it will make 2008 look like child's play.
Plenty more upside on the way.
A lot of amateurs being flushed out.
At first blush one would think a fall in oil and ngas prices would be good for a refining and transportation company the result of an expected rise in demand (lower price) and a drop in input costs. But based on the rather severe drop in ONEOK stock price, which has coincided with the collapse in oil prices, I am questioning that theory, there must be some type of negative correlation. One could simply argue this is a case of the baby being thrown out with the bathwater as the entire fossil fuel space gets slammed, which I would buy if you choose not to look at a longer term chart of ONEOK stock price. ONEOK traded in the $10 range for quite some time before the spike beginning in 2008 that has brought us to these levels. My question is has this stock pop been driven solely by the mania of the perceived new oil and gas paradigm in the United States, the recent huge venture capital inflow? And if this is indeed the case I see a danger of ONEOK returning to mean which translates to a much lower stock price if the deflating of this oil and gas bubble continues as capital flows move in another direction.
It will be a very large mistake to buy on the dips the next downturn. The Central Banks have no more cards to play, it's over. The failure of Europe QE next week to move the market higher will be the beginning of the end. The dominoes are lined up and will soon begin to fall.
As I stated, the Swiss want to deter safe haven buying of their currency by charging interest. It will be interesting to see how that works out. Also the Swiss Central Bank, now that is not purchasing Euros, will be buying U.S. dollars. My larger point is this...A rapidly rising dollar has been the precursor to quite a few major emerging markets blow-ups in the past, including the Asian crisis 1998, Russia the following year, Mexico peso crisis 1982. Expect plenty of volatility in the future, much of which will not be good in my opinion.
The Swiss made their move in anticipation of European QE next week, they felt it was a losing game to continue to be have their currency pegged to the Euro. Keep in mind the Swiss along with most European countries are in an outright deflationary environment. The Swiss understand a rising currency will only add to their deflationary pressure hence the reason they are now charging depositors .75 percent. You pay to keep money in their banks. This makes the U.S. dollar even more valuable, and driving more investors to our shores. Hence the reason the U.S. dollar will continue to rise.
This is a double edge sword as far as the world economy is concerned. Emerging markets hold over $9 trillion in U.S. denominated debt. A rapidly rising dollar essentially increase those debt obligations. This is a huge negative for economies already in deep trouble.
The question, what is a rising U.S. dollar net effect? I view it as an overall negative. I prefer gold as a safe haven in this environment.
The surprise move by the Swiss Central Bank is U.S. dollar positive. A rising U.S. dollar will have serious ramifications on a number of fronts including damaging the domestic earnings of those who do business overseas but by far the most troubling consequence will be found in the emerging markets where substantial debt loads are denominated in dollars. A rising dollar will serve to magnify those debt obligations, placing even more pressure on moribund economies, raise the specter of default, weigh down an already troubled banking system, and eventually negatively effect the entire credit market worldwide.
The world economy is losing faith in the Central Banks misguided policy of endless QEs, money printing. History has proven time and time again the devaluing of currency does not bring prosperity, quite the opposite. Today's market move up will be short-lived, still time to buy gold and gold stocks.
This message brought to you by the "Stop Finster Foundation", seeking to quiet those troubled individuals who have an annoying habit of posting nonsense daily.
I have tried my best to warn my dear misguided friends on the BTU message board of the impending currency crisis, but sadly my words of caution have fallen on deaf ears. It is not too late...Cash, Gold, Gold stocks.
We have a lot of shameless pumpers on this message board spreading misinformation and lies in their vain attempt to pump up a stock down over 60% in the past year alone. Not a good idea to invest in a company whose debt is rated JUNK, a company that suffers huge losses each qtr, possesses growing negative cash flow! Whose bonehead Mgt has entered into a price war with much larger companies owning much deeper pockets, excellent credit ratings and vastly superior networks. Sprint stock is a pathetic joke, only for those who choose not to do their homework or are blinded by the lack of critical thinking skills.
You have answered your own question. Sprint's bonehead mgt even considering purchasing Radio Shack stores is a good indication of the poor decision making that has plunged Sprint's stock over 60% in the past year. Also not a good idea to enter a price war with outfits that have much deeper pockets, and bonds that are not rated junk.
Of course if Chase did and lost $Billions, Dimon will cry, scream and cuss about regulation.