I am quite perplexed why the recent rather dramatic rise in longer term interest rates, the end of QE in the U.S. and the impending fed move, has yet to expose the huge bubble in the debt market, not so much treasuries but lower grade junk debt here in the United States and the emerging markets. And of course if the credit markets tank so will globally equities.
Well just a matter of time now, the clock is ticking before this Fed induced madness comes to an abrupt halt. I foresee the U.S markets taking the first hit, followed by Europe, then an absolutely pummeling in the emerging markets, China, India, Russia...The dominoes are clearly set to fall. This is going to get ugly and could very well surpass the devastation of the 2008 crash before all is said and done.
I don't see anywhere to hide, other than cash, possibly gold and gold stocks. Shorting the major indexes is a very good idea at this point. The world economy and stock markets have been checkmated and so few have yet to realize this reality, instead the vast majority continue buying into the hype issued by the analysts of the criminal money center banks, herding into stocks, sheep to be slaughtered.
I am fully aware it will be difficult to have a fair discussion on the topic of man-made global warming in a BTU message board where the posters are overwhelming Fox News Watching Republicans but let us for a moment set aside our biases, our financial interests, our politics and simply review the facts.
Global warming gasses such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane et cetera can be accurately measured in our atmosphere, we have historical records dating back many millions of years, there is a clear correlation between atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global temperatures.
We know that when one burn fossil fuels various global warming gasses which include carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane are released. Therefore it is no surprise carbon levels in our atmosphere have increased dramatically in the past 200 years from 280 ppm to present day 400 ppm coinciding with the Industrial revolution and the unprecedented burning of fossil fuels.
Yes there are many variables in this equation, including natural sources such as volcanic activity et cetera which are always in flux. But with that said, when you are adding over 10 billion metric tons of carbon emissions a year via man-made sources this can easily change the natural balance and create what is called a positive feed back loop. As the temperature rise, ice melts, less sun is reflected and is absorbed by the planet, raising temps further. As the permafrost melts the stored carbon and methane is released adding more global warming gasses, raising temps further. Two examples, there are many more, the point is once this feed back loop begins it becomes impossible to control and severely exacerbate an already dire situation.
Global warming gasses make our planet livable, plants depend on them, the list of positives are countless but when we reach a point the oceans become saturated, acidic, our atmosphere inundated, the consequences become quite large and severe. We have other options for energy needs.
You must be new to this message board, Finster is one of those fools who has been riding BTU down from much higher prices and laughing all the way for some odd reason.
I guess finster is going to have postpone retirement and the Vegas high limit table for quite some time.
Jack, I could not concur more. I must admit Rail certainly puts out a lot effort and appears to be quite sincere, but the guy is absolutely clueless.
I suppose Bankruptcy is the only cure, the closing of the BTU message board, to finally end the bottom predictions.
There are a plethora of maladies facing BTU but the two that should eventually wipe out shareholders are a leveraged balance sheet financed by exorbitant interest rates and the emergence of cheap, abundant liquid natural gas which is targeting key emerging markets, markets BTU were counting on to foster future growth, justify previous costly investments in Australia and elsewhere.
Now that majors with deep pockets such as Shell and Exxon are financing the LNG infrastructure it is only a matter of time before this fuel source comes online. Relatively clean, cheap, abundant, LNG will trump dirty coal bringing an end to outfits like BTU, or at least will change their business model and size completely. I foresee some form of BTU bankruptcy, restructuring of debt, and a much smaller BTU reemerging. Present stockholders of course will be left with nothing.
I am not saying coal use will come to a complete end, but India and China have enough domestic coal resources to not need to import BTUs product, especially if you add LNG into the equation. The outlook is quite bleak. BTU trading at present levels is basically an option, and time decay is working against you. Any upward movement should be seen as opportunity to get out.
Rail it is truly amazing what little you know about economics and interest rates yet you feel the need to post your ignorance daily. No surprise you have ridden BTU down to these lowly levels.
Finster, keeping with the Vegas theme, you have certainly been dealt a bad hand. Too dense to recognize your severe shortcomings and too arrogant not to expose that fact to everyone. According to Finster BTU has been the "opportunity of a lifetime" since $30, supposedly adding to his position all the way down to these lowly levels. But one must keep in mind Finster has made many outlandish claims during his stay on the message board including representing himself as a CPA which was proved blatantly false when Finster made some truly laughable statements concerning BTU's book value that only an uneducated neophyte would dare utter. Now that Finster admits to being 25 years old, most likely living under his mother's roof, investing his pizza delivery money, it has become painfully clear these are just the ramblings of a young wannabe with dreams of being a big shot. May I suggest Finster you finish your high school education and pursue a trade of some sort...Warren Buffett you are not.
Not a good idea to invest in a stock nor an industry clearly you know nothing about. Politics has very little to do with BTU's demise.
Absolutely no reason why ABX should of traded down today. GLD up, NEM up over 2%. ABX was down over 5% yesterday alone! NEM was down only 1% yesterday yet it is up over 2% today.
BTU's $1 billion in 10% bonds sold just last March are now trading below 80 cents on the dollar (now yielding 15%). Nobody wants to touch BTU debt much less their stock at any price. Moose tried to warn you many, many months ago.
Tickets are no longer available, the show has been Sold Out. We looking forward to serving you again though at the next 52 Week Low Gala!
Tickets now on sale, this event sure to be much better than the last 180. BTU cheerleaders will perform their latest cheer! Finster will explain BTU price action and why he has been adding to his position from the mid 40s, 30s, 20s, 10s and now low single digits. Not often one has the opportunity to hear the thoughts of such an esteemed financial guru as Finster! And to end the evening, Steve Grasso will be signing posters of himself in the lobby! Truly a joyous occasion for all, that cannot be missed. You will laugh, cry, and shout out loud!
The analysts over at the money center banks and the majority of the Wall Street talking heads have claimed adamantly that the meteoric rise in equities has been all about organic growth, increased earnings, dismissing that stocks have greatly benefited form unprecedented Central Bank policies such as QEs, money printing and negative real interest rates.
My response is BS! In my opinion the majority of the move in stocks is due to cheap money, the expansion of PEs, corporations issuing debt to buyback shares, hike the dividend. Now that the longer end of the bond market is finally moving higher and telling the Central Bankers enough of this insanity, we shall see just how long stocks can maintain these lofty levels.
I foresee a major sell-off in the coming weeks. I suspect BTU might outperform in the sense it is not down as much as the indexes, but considering how much BTU has been absolutely pummeled the past 2 years, no big surprise. Until some form of bankruptcy is announced BTU remains in a tight trading range, the stock is basically now an option.
You certainly have valid points but there is a reason why individuals residing in emerging markets have a much higher savings rate (percentage wise) from those residing in developed economies. They have no safety net, they pay for the majority of their healthcare needs out of pocket. So I don't see these funds as potential future spending. And although the savings rate for the emerging market population might be relatively high the debt levels of both corporations and govts have risen dramatically.
Russia and Brazil are commodity economies, heavily weighted towards crude, so as the price of oil goes so does their prosperity. I don't see the direction of the greenback have that much of an influence. Russia is burning through it's reserves rapidly due to the fall in oil, frankly unless crude continues to rise they remain in big trouble.
I guess my point is, the world stock markets are highly leveraged due to unprecedented financial engineering brought on by insane liquidity. The second the market gets a whiff the punch bowl is being taken away all hell is going to break loose. The many bubbles will be exposed, especially in the debt markets which will tank equities. The recent dramatic rise in longer term treasuries is the catalyst I have been looking for to bring this madness to an end, hence the reason I called for a major, major correction a few days ago when the market was making new highs. I knew it could not sustain itself under the weight of rising rates, especially a market built on cheap money.
LOL. There is no right partner for the most despised family in America. Who in their right mind would partner with the Kardashians...LOL.
China's equity market has had a huge gain the past 3 months for no good reason other than liquidity. Rising interest rates both in Europe and the United States trumps any move by the U.S. dollar as far as the emerging markets are concerned. China's debt levels are skyrocketing, bad loans exploding and their mammoth property bubble deflating, add that unholy trilogy to a slowing economy and I see a huge correction for their stock market in the coming months. In fact, I see a crash. We shall see.
What a bonehead move by Mgt to get involved with these low-lives in the first place!