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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

mopsu28 145 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 15 minutes ago Member since: Mar 25, 1998
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  • mopsu28 mopsu28 2 hours 15 minutes ago Flag

    not Etrade

  • Reply to

    What About LGCYO !

    by superbowl6wins 14 hours ago

    My thinking is because I take half the risk (capital invested bang for the buck) and the upside is a lot more. They're not paying their bonds anyways. That being said neither comes even close to being a safe investment. Was just bored at the time and figure if I buy a bunch of garbage, a couple would make it

  • Reply to

    What About LGCYO !

    by superbowl6wins 14 hours ago

    Has anyone looked at SDRXP? It's Sandridge's preferred stock. Someone mentioned it a few days ago. Might've been cube...It's a $100 preferred trading at basically 3 cents on the dollar. Should do ok if they don't follow BK (they probably will) but I figure even if I get 5 cents in some restructuring I still double my money. The downside is that I don't get anything but I paid $2 and it's been a nice ride so far

  • Reply to

    What About LGCYO !

    by superbowl6wins 14 hours ago

    bonds jumped and this one should've jumped too. I was going to buy more at 6.3 and change but I figure I keep some cash in case something happens

  • Reply to

    Any Other MLPS ready to bounce...

    by k.harris84 Apr 26, 2016 6:08 PM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 28, 2016 12:18 PM Flag

    I meant $7,500

  • Reply to

    Any Other MLPS ready to bounce...

    by k.harris84 Apr 26, 2016 6:08 PM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 28, 2016 12:18 PM Flag

    I sold 50 puts when it was low and I got $1.50 for the sep ($6,500). Turned around bought 200 Jun calls for 15 cents and sold for $1.30 and 400 Sep calls for 20 cents and still holding those. I've been long playing with the house's money. I'm up $4-$5k on the puts that I sold

  • Reply to

    306 mil revenues income $.62 cents

    by mopsu28 Apr 28, 2016 8:02 AM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 28, 2016 8:24 AM Flag

    and to think that 2 days ago I had an order in to buy 100 $4 call contracts expiring tmr for 13 cents. They were trading at 14 and wanted to get a "good deal". Never happened

  • but then I saw MCEP break out. It looks like it's starting another leg that may end around $5.2. Have a bit of MCEP left and some options but I won't chase that one because LGCY is a better deal and should trade above. The optimist in me looks at the chart and thinks that LGCY may make a run to $6 on this leg if oil moves up to $50 as I think it will in a few days. The pessimist in me says Get out you greedy pig...and then the optimist says...the trend is your friend. Market tends to be irrational but stocks won't stop on a dime just because they suddenly become overvalued. The pendulum can swing much further. It's good to have fundamentals on your side though when it swings the other way. That being said I'm stuck with a lot of cash and no safe deals (I meant the ones that can become moonshots). Some of the other MLP's will probably follow but I won't sleep well with some of them. I think the first money is to be made in E&P's, then midstreams and then services. SGY chart looks pretty good like a double but they drew out their whole line and their hedges are no bueno. AZUR looks ready to pop. Got some VNR. That maybe good for a 40% move but I tread with caution and if it moves I'll dump before earnings

  • Reply to

    Any Other MLPS ready to bounce...

    by k.harris84 Apr 26, 2016 6:08 PM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 27, 2016 3:05 PM Flag

    Sold my june but still holding the september. I may just be getting too greedy but I wanted a more even trade on the bonds vs the preferred. I would load up at 28-29 but they've jumped to 31 and change. The even steven with the bonds at 31 cents would be to sell my preferred at 7.75. I do understand that bonds are safer though. Anyone knows what happens to the accumulated divy on the preferred. Who gets that if I sell and they reinstate.

  • Reply to

    Any Other MLPS ready to bounce...

    by k.harris84 Apr 26, 2016 6:08 PM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 27, 2016 12:47 PM Flag

    Yea cube. Was trying to rotate from LGCYO to the bonds. Sold 5000 YO at $6.65 and was only able to get 40 bonds before they jacked up the price on me. Picked up some VNR bonds for an extra boost but do hope the LGCY bonds drop to where I can pick them up at 29 cents. Still holding to 7000 more LGCYO that I averaged $1.90 on. Sold 200 june calls for $1.30. Picked those up at 15 cents. Sold 10k LGCY at 3.8 (picked up at $1.2). Still holding on to 400 Sep calls and 20k shares. This one has been a goldmine. Bought some VNR and VNR calls maybe we get a sympathy bounce. Good day so far

  • Reply to

    professor dwyer - thought on VNR?

    by zakiman123 Apr 26, 2016 8:04 PM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 26, 2016 10:49 PM Flag

    Have some VNR bonds and was planning to buy more. Stock looks interesting and it's been basing for a while. Looks like it will eventually close that gap at $4.4 from a technical perspective. Rising oil will eventually lift all boats, just wanted to hear his opinion on fundamentals because when the tide goes out ....well, just tired of reading all these 10k's and he's been right all this time. I remember that when he ran the numbers last quarter he gave it a thumb down

  • Reply to

    professor dwyer - thought on VNR?

    by zakiman123 Apr 26, 2016 8:04 PM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 26, 2016 8:22 PM Flag

    Funny...just asked him the same question on the LGCY board

  • mopsu28 by mopsu28 Apr 26, 2016 7:54 PM Flag

    Is it possible that with oil around $45 VNR may come out of the woodwork? Can you post your link for that one pretty please? What is your take on it under the current conditions? That one hasn't moved and may be prime for a bounce. I see that oil broke the $44 resistance after the API and I think we'll see $50 soon. You had VNR pegged for $47 break-even. What about nat gas.

  • Reply to

    Redetermination

    by m20m75ph Mar 28, 2016 10:14 AM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 25, 2016 7:38 PM Flag

    Yea..my trading days are pretty exciting. Today I had a $50k LGCY related swing from the top to where it closed. Earnings are not gonna be good but estimates have been reduced and they may just beat. A few catalysts that may affect this positively like the re-determination, asset sales, guidance and I do think that oil may hit $48 and even $50 in 2 weeks. Chart looks good to me. I think this should trade at $6 just based on where MCEP is trading. Market may not agree with me though or it may just bring MCEP down in order to appease me.

  • Reply to

    Redetermination

    by m20m75ph Mar 28, 2016 10:14 AM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 25, 2016 11:02 AM Flag

    yea...you're telling me about decisions...Have 600 calls. Was planning to wait for $6 to dump 200. The way it's going this will probably happen tmr. JK. I'll probably wait a couple of weeks until after earnings. By that time oil will be at 50

  • and go to news I see that they've sent out the unitholder voting instruction for the May meeting. One thing that we have to vote on is an amendment to merger agreements. What is that about

  • mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 24, 2016 10:46 PM Flag

    Linn may surprise us. They have a boat load of cash because they've maxed out the credit line and with the hedges they'll be cash flowing over $500 mil this year and $75 or so next year. This may be just a plot to work some cheap deal on the debt by scaring the unsecured lenders. They've made their last bond payment and I guess we'll find out in a few days or before the next payment is due on the 15th. A year is a long time and commodities may shoot up. Nat gas was up 4% on Friday also. I have some bonds that I got at 3-4 cents and was actually looking at some cheap options on LNCO if i can get them at 5 cents for a hail Mary. Anyways, Linn ...whatever they do, I think will be a big event in the Mlp world

  • Reply to

    Bank of America just upgraded NGL Energy.

    by malakacrocka Apr 22, 2016 8:49 AM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 22, 2016 9:23 PM Flag

    Prof. Do you think there is any way for Linn not to file BK? Is it in any way possible that LNCO may survive and become a viable company after whatever debt exchanges they're considering? Have you worked up any numbers on that?

  • mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 22, 2016 7:04 PM Flag

    good deal. Sold MCEP at 3.35 and bought LGCY from $1.1 to $1.38 on a smaller scale and a boat load of LGCY options. Today was a good day. Love going into the weekend like this. Have some cash left over. Any other oil cos in the $1-$2 range that you guys know that are not gonna go BK and may shoot up like LGCY?

DECK
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