Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

mopsu28 106 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 30, 2016 5:02 PM Member since: Mar 25, 1998
  • mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 24, 2016 10:46 PM Flag

    Linn may surprise us. They have a boat load of cash because they've maxed out the credit line and with the hedges they'll be cash flowing over $500 mil this year and $75 or so next year. This may be just a plot to work some cheap deal on the debt by scaring the unsecured lenders. They've made their last bond payment and I guess we'll find out in a few days or before the next payment is due on the 15th. A year is a long time and commodities may shoot up. Nat gas was up 4% on Friday also. I have some bonds that I got at 3-4 cents and was actually looking at some cheap options on LNCO if i can get them at 5 cents for a hail Mary. Anyways, Linn ...whatever they do, I think will be a big event in the Mlp world

  • Reply to

    Bank of America just upgraded NGL Energy.

    by malakacrocka Apr 22, 2016 8:49 AM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 22, 2016 9:23 PM Flag

    Prof. Do you think there is any way for Linn not to file BK? Is it in any way possible that LNCO may survive and become a viable company after whatever debt exchanges they're considering? Have you worked up any numbers on that?

  • mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 22, 2016 7:04 PM Flag

    good deal. Sold MCEP at 3.35 and bought LGCY from $1.1 to $1.38 on a smaller scale and a boat load of LGCY options. Today was a good day. Love going into the weekend like this. Have some cash left over. Any other oil cos in the $1-$2 range that you guys know that are not gonna go BK and may shoot up like LGCY?

  • mopsu28 by mopsu28 Apr 22, 2016 2:33 PM Flag

    Those LGCY calls are doing pretty good. In particular the June ones that I picked up ytd for 11 cents

  • Reply to

    I bought the "O"...

    by bpy03 Apr 22, 2016 1:51 PM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 22, 2016 2:10 PM Flag

    same thing different issuance

  • Reply to

    Bonds

    by mopsu28 Apr 20, 2016 8:54 PM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 21, 2016 11:30 PM Flag

    Yea I know but I bought it after. Was trying to calculate damage for further buybacks. However, if Andy Hall is right and oil hits over $100 next year, I frankly don't care.....

  • Reply to

    Bonds

    by mopsu28 Apr 20, 2016 8:54 PM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 21, 2016 8:06 AM Flag

    thanks....will do

  • mopsu28 by mopsu28 Apr 20, 2016 8:54 PM Flag

    I seem to remember hearing that they've bought back x bonds at a discount in Feb. Does anyone know where that came from? Looked at the call transcript and it's not in there (other than saying that they've considered debt exchanges. They had $850 mil unsecured. Anyone knows the balance after that buyback? I know it's been discussed here before but I must be getting old. I wouldn't normally be that worried but I kinda went all in today.

  • Reply to

    SXE vs Legacy

    by matthewshandy Apr 19, 2016 1:14 PM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 20, 2016 6:28 PM Flag

    If I have a choice here....I choose Friday. But I don't really care as long as they're not going under

  • Reply to

    Inventory Data

    by thegreatbahoo Apr 20, 2016 10:46 AM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 20, 2016 6:22 PM Flag

    Looks like China is going to pick up the slack

    A dramatic build-up in China’s strategic petroleum reserve and surging demand for imported crude oil are likely to transform the global energy markets this year, regardless of any production freeze agreed by OPEC and Russia this weekend.

    Chinese credit stimulus and a 20pc rise in public spending has set off a fresh mini-cycle of growth that is already sucking in oil imports at a much faster pace than expected.

    Barclays estimates that the country will import an average of 8m barrels per day (b/d) this year, a huge jump from 6.7m b/d last year. This is arguably enough to soak up a big chunk of the excess supply currently flooding global markets.

    Standard Chartered said Chinese imports could reach 10m b/d by the end on 2018, implying a supply crunch and a fresh spike in oil prices as the market is turned on its head.

    Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie says $400bn in oil and gas projects have been shelved since the onset of the commodity slump. A great number of depleting fields will not be replaced.

    Feifei Li, Barclay’s oil analyst, said China is in a rush to fill four new storage sites of its petroleum reserve coming available this year. “It is an urgent priority of the government to fill up the tanks while the price of oil is cheap,” he said.

    Fresh storage is likely to average 250,000 b/d, five times the level last year. The pace will rise further in the second half of the year.

    China is building vast underground rock caverns in the interior of the country as a top national security priority, fully aware of the way Japan was squeezed by the US fuel embargo in the late 1930s. It aims to boost reserves to 550m barrels and ensure a 90-day buffer to resist an external supply shock.

    China’s own output of oil has fallen by 200,000 b/d over the last year as PetroChina and Sinopec slash investment, while demand has continued to grow.

  • Reply to

    SXE vs Legacy

    by matthewshandy Apr 19, 2016 1:14 PM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 20, 2016 2:08 PM Flag

    Thanks cube. I think I'll hold for a while then. Had the finger on the trigger at $3.5 because I didn't see any news and frankly I bought in at $1.6 a few days ago. Pigs get slaughtered

  • Reply to

    SXE vs Legacy

    by matthewshandy Apr 19, 2016 1:14 PM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 20, 2016 1:14 PM Flag

    All that being said why is SXE going through the roof today as we speak?

  • Reply to

    Over under on MCEP bottom

    by justanoilguy Apr 18, 2016 8:43 AM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 18, 2016 7:38 PM Flag

    Yea ...I was also looking to buy back in around $2.25-$2.5 after selling at $3.35. On one hand I want it to come down to buy cheaper, on the other hand, I'm afraid that if it comes down, my other stuff will be down also. Trading looks pretty strong. Not a lot of sellers

  • Reply to

    BBEP's interest suspension could hurt

    by prof.williamdyer Apr 14, 2016 9:35 AM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 14, 2016 1:29 PM Flag

    Same on Etrade. No changes in bonds. All trades above 28. I think that we'll be in for a volatile few days with the meeting this weekend and we'll likely find out tomorrow if LINE is going belly up. Oil still holding close to $42 so far

  • Reply to

    time to organize

    by zooplankton200 Apr 14, 2016 11:27 AM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 14, 2016 12:10 PM Flag

    don't think that I can help much. I only have $20k face value

  • Reply to

    BBEP's interest suspension could hurt

    by prof.williamdyer Apr 14, 2016 9:35 AM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 14, 2016 12:00 PM Flag

    I doubt a takeover unless bonds are trading a lot higher. Whoever buys it has to make the bond holders whole. The buying back debt thing...I hope they didn't go crazy because I own a lot of common also

  • Reply to

    BBEP's interest suspension could hurt

    by prof.williamdyer Apr 14, 2016 9:35 AM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 14, 2016 10:58 AM Flag

    did you dump your LGCY calls? Just bought 200 Picked up some SXE yesterday. That one's up about 30%

  • Reply to

    dumped MCEP around 3.35

    by mopsu28 Apr 12, 2016 10:20 AM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 12, 2016 7:35 PM Flag

    Well, for insurance purposes I've put a big chunk into more LGCY. Don't wanna have too much cash just sitting there. I think oil will be much higher by the end of the year and I think the rally in MCEP is real. Not enough shorts for this to be a short covering rally. Just think that the easy money has been made on this leg and LGCY will make a bigger move than MCEP. It may be that it doesn't come down and just consolidate. Was a good day for LGCYO also.

  • Reply to

    Stupid Etrade and stope limit orders!

    by steviesonz Apr 12, 2016 6:14 PM
    mopsu28 mopsu28 Apr 12, 2016 6:36 PM Flag

    I wouldn't try to trade it here. I dumped MCEP today and put a significant part of the proceeds into my LGCY position. Eventually the gap between the two will narrow. I don't think LGCY will see $1 again, so basically what you're doing you're trying to avoid losing a few pennies when the upside is a few dollars. Not worth missing the rally over trying to time it.

  • still holding on to LGCY. MCEP moved a bit too far too fast for me and I think that I'll be able to get in again lower and get more shares in the $2.5 and $2.8 area in a few days. Wasn't planning to trade it but I think the market may be setting to pull back also and I hate fighting the tape

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