I didn't find that page in their May investor presentation, but from past presentations, that's calculated from realized oil price, not WTI.
But with each qtr passing by, proved reserves (collateral for the bank debt ) are getting depleted w/o replacement. Without major relief from prices, MCEP in essence is slowly liquidating its properties through production, borrowing base will come down as well. This is called "debt spiral."
Class A was converted on 03/31, share count has gone up to roughly 4.1M, which was used in the 2016 guidance. Class B is much bigger totaling $350M all owned by Stonepeak with a conversion price at $18 or at a weighted price if SPP does a secondary offering with an amount above $75M. Stonepeak currently has 2 seats on the board, and probably will gain more seats with class B conversion.
Targa clearly is an experienced developer and operator. Given the complexity of a cryo plant development, SN benefits from taking the back seat. Once the processing plant is built, dropping down the non-op interest to SPP could make sense.
SN has plenty of liquidity near term to fund the fractionator, it appears their current plan is to drop down their 50% share of the TRGP JV to SPP after the plant comes online. But I agree Sanchez is relatively leveraged. Longer term, it needs capital or some form of equity. I also agree with you that some consolidation would be nice, but I am not sure SPP would be part of it. SPP is trying to divest the legacy mid-con NG assets, but even after that it still has a significant upstream interest (40% of 2016 guided EBITDA). It doesn't seem a good fit right now.
SPP is a very different story. It is a mix of upstream (legacy mid-con NG assets + recently acquired EF working interest from SN), and midstream assets that was recently dropped down from SN which has a very active drilling program. SPP has low debt and guided 2.x distribution coverage in 2016.
You are right, EVEP has the lowest EV / PV-10 (10% discounted NAV) ratio among all upstream MLPs, perhaps except SPP. Roughly the order from the lowest to highest is EVEP, MCEP, LGCY, ARP / MEMP, VNR, BBEP, LINE.
Market cap reported by Yahoo is not correct, it's based on share count prior to Class A preferred conversion which took place on March 31. The new share count is around 4.2M, so market cap is about $48M.
Got it. It's "speculative" in the sense that there is a lack of information on the upstream production. I earlier thought you meant high risk.
They didn't buy them from Hyundai Merchant Marine, but from their parent company. Those ships have 10 year contract with HMM at rates much higher than the spot rate.
"I would not discount holdings being sold and not sxe." Hm, I would imagine they would want to maximize the value of subordinated units. I am surprised they still didn't try to tackle subs. I think holdings and sxe would be merged to get rid of subs.
They did mention in the 2016 guidance excluding legacy mid-cond assets, 40% of EBITDA is from upstream, and a target distribution coverage of 1.2x. So distribution growth will be there; but I agree with you they should have provided production number/finances in their 2016 guidance.
"In the past, we successfully managed to extend the non-amortizing periods and maturities of our credit facilities, which is not practicable today in a cost effective manner."
It appears banks were asking for significantly higher rates to extend the "revolving" period.
Why a speculative play? I don't see anything speculative about it.The sponsor SN is doing well, another good sign.
Have they already bought back bonds? If not, bonds have rebounded back to close to par, yielding merely 7%. I doubt they would buy much now if any.
Never mind. During the first 3 years of operation, ED will receive 65%, 65% and 60% of the cash distributed by the new JV.
Not sure why 35% instead of 50% for the last 7 months? The difference would be a very material $50M in EBITDA, a nice bump.
"The following projections were revised based on the assumption the Con Edison joint venture closes June 1, 2016. In 2016, our results attributed to Stagecoach Gas Services in the Storage and Transportation segment will include five months of Crestwood’s ownership at 100% and seven months of Crestwood’s proportionate share of Stagecoach Gas Services’ earnings of 35%. "
I still like CEQP here, but I totally agree with you on SPP. Too bad SPP doesn't have its own Yahee msg board. It has gone through drastic change in 2015, so is probably easily missed by many that focus on past metrics. SPP has a great 2016 guidance, the legacy gas assets held for sale is excluded from the guidance, I am curious how much it could fetch in the market, hopefully a sizable bonus. SP has been weak in April. I posted this in a MCEP thread. "From recent SEC filings, Raging Capital appears to have sold SPP shares from the mandatory conversion of Class A preferred units that took place on March 31, 2016. I won't be surprised some were bought back by the existing share buyback program. Perhaps that explains the recent weakness in share price and bigger volume. HITE kept their holding intact. There are now 4.2M common units, and the 2016 guided coverage ratio between 1.9x and 2.8x is based on this new share count."