Itron, Inc. Message Board

Same here. I sold (a little too soon) but plan to buy back later. I think some of the selling in the market right now may be due to folks locking in cap gains at the current tax rate. My guess is the cliff gets resolved but it will be a messy process and put markets on edge.

Sentiment: Sell

I think you're right Fonzo. Latest economic data is not good. Durable goods orders and such are weak. Warnings from FedEX and Norfolk Southern are a big concern too. I sold out of PCAR just under 43. I'll buy back later though. I'm thinking maybe support around 36 if broad market doesn't sell off too bad.

Sentiment: Sell

I'm in fine shape with my investment in PCAR. I like the dividend too. I paid no where near $112 for my shares.
Your in fine shape too. You'll get your check. I'm sorry about what happened down there in Nashville but I'm afraid its an economic reality for unions going forward. Like I said, times change.
GM and Chrysler and the UAW owe a lot to the taxpayers. We rescued them.
What foreign automakers that assemble in the US are UAW shops? I think the Texas Toyota truck plant is UAW but that is the only light vehicle one I know of.

As far as the specifics of NAV's engine problems I blame the management for not listening to their own engineers who had doubts about their ability to build relyable EGR engines. I don't blame the UAW for the engine problems. Again, switching to Cummins engines does nothing to help NAV with the current warranty expenses on their current EGR engines. They are still on the hook for warranty for trucks they have already sold. Not only that but there was a lot of R&D, engineering, tooling, and other expenses invested in the EGR engine. It is unfortunately a failed investment for NAV.

I believe it is not only the engines but multiple factors that make NAV an inferior investment to PCAR.

As far as the UAW goes, well I think PCAR, NAV, Ford, GM, or whoever should do all they can to keep the agreements they made with the UAW as far as retirees or those employees near retirement age. Long term though they can't afford to make deals with the unions like they did back in the 70's. You can't stay in business like that in a global market place anymore. You have to adapt to survive and prosper in business. That's one of the reasons I like PCAR. They are forward looking. They see that letting the UAW run their shops is a losing strategy long term. PCAR is ahead of their competitors in this.

NAV is a total train wreck (or truck wreck) of a company.
Does this reflect a healthy company?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=NAV+Key+Statistics

Crawling back to Cummins begging for ISX engines is probably too little too late for NAV. Where does one start with NAV?

1. Poor management. Just as the first poster said. Stubborn and would not listen to engineers about going with EGR for their engines. The engines run hot. Have less power. And get poor fuel mileage.

2. Monster huge warranty claims on engines. Huge expense for an already weak NAV.

3. Internationl truck dealers have to be really sore with NAV. They are losing customers over this engine mess.

4. NAV is a distressed company with activist investors stirring the pot. How do you invest in a company to design and build world class products with a guy like Carl Icahn looking over you shoulder?

5.Huge Dept load.

6.Sub-standard prducts relative to all of their competitors.

7.NAV is a big supplier for government agencies of all kinds. The economy is weak and tax revenues aren't that great. Not good for NAV.

8.NAV is an old legacy manufacturer. Work force is mostly UAW. Nuff said.

So, does NAV survive? I think so but not in its present form. The activist investors will get control of the thing and break it up and sell off the pieces.

Does PCAR win market share from NAV? Yes. For sure. PCAR is a far better company than NAV but so is everyone else in the truck business. Freghtliner and Volvo will benefit too.

We've seen this before.....After 2 o'clock this thing gets bid up. Almost has to be institutional buying. There was no news today.

I hope it is funds buying. I hope it is not just those HFT guys.

And that 8-1/2% drop in CMI today.....
Bush's fault. LOL...

Keep on buying them. You were very lucky to get one of those todays-special-value bags. They sold out fast.

I don't believe there will be a buyer for NAV in its present form.
NAV is a mess of a company. Huge debt. Unionized employees. Inferior trucks. Inferior engines. Big warranty claims.
I think the best that NAV holders can hope for is that they start breaking up the company and selling off pieces.

What is the main source of growth for PCAR?

1. Fleets are running a lot more older trucks than they normally would. These older trucks will need to be replaced with more reliable and more fuel efficient trucks at some point. Pent up demand should develope if the overall economy stays solid.

2. An independent network of motivated dealerships that can make a lot of money selling and servicing PACCAR products. PACCAR provides financing for the customers buying or leasing. They have a very small (<2% as I recall) amount of nonperforming loans.

3. Great brands like Peterbilt, Kenworth, and DAF that generally have a higher resale value than other truck brands. Newer fuel efficient models like Pete 579, KW T700, and KW T680 that should compete well in the marketplace.

4. More vertical integration. They are steadily selling more trucks equipped with PACCAR engines. They also offer engines supplied by Cummins in many of their truck models. I believe executing well with the PACCAR engines is critical for the future success of the company. The engine business will also add revenue in the way of maintainance and replacement parts over time. Parts are profitable.

5. Big problems for competitor Navistar. Navistar is losing market share and PACCAR should get a piece of that lost share.

6. Declining legacy costs over time. I believe PACCAR learned a lot from the Japanese car companies that have set up shop in North America. Most of the Pete and KW trucks are built in non-union plants in the US. The engines are built in a non-union shop that is only about three-years-old. PACCAR's competitors still operate mostly old style union plants.

7. Expanding into Brazil with DAF. New truck plant in Brazil is scheduled to open late next year as I remember.

8. Alternative fuels/nat gas? They do offer Cummins/Westport nat gas engines in some models but the sales numbers are still pretty small. The technology shows a lot of promise but these engines are really expensive.



The truck business is cyclical. Two things I'm watching that could really help PACCAR would be some stability in Europe and more construction/building activity in the US.

Yes but Obama care won't be fully implimented soon enough to save NAV.
In time there will be almost no private insurers. Almost everyone will be forced into government health insurance.

I think you are right.
Ron Johnson will always be regarded as a retailing pioneer and forward thinker even if he sinks JCP. Ron Johnson is a darling of the leftist media. If JCP fails it won't be his fault. It will be the public and traditional JCP customers' fault for not being more tolerant and open to changes in the way the stores are run.
Besides, JCP already operates in a very crowded retail space. Sell while you can.

I think the emissions standards get raised for heavy trucks beginning in 2014. My understanding is the fleets usually buy before the emissions and mpg standards go into effect to avoid price increases. If this plays out to be true late 12 and 13 may not be that bad.

"What are these marketing geniuses at JCP thinking."

You ask a good question. I may have an answer.

These "geniuses" have confused the approval of the cultural elites and the media with public approval. They are not the same.

My wife used to shop at JCP pretty often.
She hates the best price Fridays but no coupons.
She doesn't like the way the store is merchandised now.
She doesn't like the longer waits at the check out.
She told me the JCP near us still had some winter clothing in early May.
My wife has quit shopping at JCP.
I used to think Eddie Lampert was the worst retail CEO but now I'm not so sure.