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Armanino Foods of Distinction Inc. Message Board

morokko65 7 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 16, 2014 12:49 PM Member since: Jul 14, 1999
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  • morokko65 morokko65 Apr 16, 2014 12:49 PM Flag

    Sticking by this post, it was a good call.... $2.35 by mid year!!! at P/E of 17 to 19

  • Reply to

    Bretton Fund commentary on AMNF

    by morokko65 Mar 6, 2014 1:43 PM
    morokko65 morokko65 Apr 11, 2014 8:05 PM Flag

    yeah, 26 now. It was called "Falcon Fund" back then. you had to speak with a broker live to get a quote. We knew people in the restaurant business that talked it up. Rose in 1990 to all time highs on Sinatra jar pasta sauce hype and collapsed when the supermarket slotting fees killed them. Couldn't compete with Paul Newman. Then stock moved sideways for a million years...

  • morokko65 morokko65 Apr 10, 2014 10:19 PM Flag

    I think long-term AMNF is on the right track and will probably hit .12-.13 share earnings for the full year. Short term, chart looks weak to the 1.65-1.70 range. This has a history of sharp spikes down to hit stops and then recover a week later. I guess we see how much of sales blip there is, and how much that is already baked into this correction. I think Q2 numbers last year were flat and the stock price took off.

  • Reply to

    Bretton Fund commentary on AMNF

    by morokko65 Mar 6, 2014 1:43 PM
    morokko65 morokko65 Mar 7, 2014 1:10 AM Flag

    I think AMNF has about $32MM to $34MM in revenues this year with about .12 to .128 in earnings. That puts this in the $2.30-$2.60 range. If that plays out, another special or divvy bump to .018/Q is very possible. Slowly interest is building, so I think we are starting to become a takeover candidate. The number of people getting alerts on seeking alpha is about 160. That was 100 a year ago. I know those are still tiny numbers, but I remember in the 1990s, it was just me and Rickeyrat showing up at the shareholder ravioli lunch. If that starts growing by leaps and bounds, then we are in play. I would expect that more mutual funds join in as the annual gains start getting picked up on stock screeners.

    I think the takeover premium is more modest 15-20%, since we have already run 100%+ in the last 12 months, some of that is already built into the price. So i think $3 is the max upside and $1.80s is downside risk. Just the humble opinion of a holder of this stock for the last 25 years. Good luck to all.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • From their 2013 annual letter:

    Armanino was our star of 2013. At last report, it was on pace to grow its earnings per share 13% as it continued to sell more of its (tasty) frozen pesto sauce. Equally important, management’s behavior demonstrates that they actually like their shareholders, and it paid out a significant portion of its free cash flow via dividends. We started buying Armanino at the beginning of 2013, and our total return so far is 103%. I wish we had found 20 Armaninos. Despite the run-up, the value of the shares remain relatively reasonable, with the total shareholder payout still in the mid-single digits.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Patience needed

    by bellbell63 Feb 16, 2014 4:40 PM
    morokko65 morokko65 Feb 18, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    Should be able to hit .12 earnings per share x P/E of 20 = $2.40. Next tidbit is the Bretton fund annual letter due out anytime. AMNF was likely one of their leaders, so we may get some positive commentary.

  • slowly, but surely the word is spreading on this gem. I still think the 5 and 10 cent drops are just walking it down for accumulation ahead of earnings and a good 2014

1.800.00(0.00%)Apr 17 3:24 PMEDT

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